bayesRatings

Padres at Cubs

MLB · Wednesday, Jul 1 · 1:20 PM CT · Wrigley Field · Final SD 3 – CHC 23
← MLB / Jul 1

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SD0000200103111
CHC3150420823170
Team box
SD·CHC
11
hits
17
1
home runs
8
3
walks
7
7
strikeouts
10
168
pitches thrown
127
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Dansby SwansonCHC3-5438
Michael ConfortoCHC3-4424
Seiya SuzukiCHC3-5313
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC2-4213
Miguel AmayaCHC2-4303
Michael BuschCHC2-6211
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Walker Buehler (L)SD4.07946
Colin Rea (W)CHC5.06235
Jordan Wicks (S)CHC3.05102

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHC +20
SD +20
123456789
largest lead: CHC 20 · SD 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SD 46%, CHC 54% · Updated Jul 1

Expected margin
CHC by 0.6
Expected score
CHC 4.6 – 4.0 SD
Expected total
8.6
PadresThe matchupCubs
+117Our fair odds−117
4.0Expected runs4.6
+0.04Power rating+0.14
3.9Runs / game4.9
4.1Allowed / game4.4
7.3Hits / game8.3
1.05Home runs / game1.21
3.3Walks drawn / game4.5
43−41Season record48−38
5−5Last 108−2

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SD chance · CHC chance
Our model fair46.0%54.0%
Kalshi49.7%55.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 1:20 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SDSan Diego Padres+11746%+10149.7%———
CHCChicago Cubs−11754%−12655.7%———
SpreadCHC by 0.6
SDSan Diego Padres+0.6our margin————
CHCChicago Cubs−0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.6
Over8.6our total————
Under8.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Chicago Cubs by 0.6 expected
San Diego Padres by 13 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 12 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 11 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 10 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 9 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 8 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 7 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 6 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 5 runs: 3%San Diego Padres by 4 runs: 5%San Diego Padres by 3 runs: 6%San Diego Padres by 2 runs: 9%San Diego Padres by 1 run: 16%Chicago Cubs by 1 run: 13%Chicago Cubs by 2 runs: 11%Chicago Cubs by 3 runs: 8%Chicago Cubs by 4 runs: 6%Chicago Cubs by 5 runs: 5%Chicago Cubs by 6 runs: 4%Chicago Cubs by 7 runs: 3%Chicago Cubs by 8 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 9 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 10 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 11 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 12 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 13 runs: <1%
← SD wins byCHC wins by →
Chicago Cubs wins by 2 or more41%
Chicago Cubs wins by 3 or more31%
San Diego Padres wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.6 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.566%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SDWalker Buehler SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 1.72 ERA, 17 Kstarted
CHCColin Rea SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 4.80 ERA, 9 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SD·CHC
Jun 30 at CHC
last game
Jun 30 vs SD
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
8
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 84+ games
SD·CHC
+0.04
rating (0 = average)
+0.14
3.9
runs / game
4.9
4.1
runs allowed / game
4.4
43−41
season record
48−38
23−21
home record
25−17
20−20
away record
23−21
L4
streak
W4
5−5
last 10
8−2
7.3
hits / game
8.3
1.05
home runs / game
1.21
3.3
walks drawn / game
4.5
8.3
batter strikeouts / game
8.5
8.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.8
0.33
errors / game
0.40

Rating Trend

SD · CHC · 98 days
San Diego PadresChicago Cubs
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHC 7−3
Jun 30at CHCCHC 9 − 7
Jun 29at CHCCHC 3 − 2
Apr 29at SDCHC 5 − 4
Apr 28at SDCHC 8 − 3
Apr 27at SDSD 9 − 7
Oct 2, 2025at CHCCHC 3 − 1post
Oct 1, 2025at CHCSD 3 − 0post
Sep 30, 2025at CHCCHC 3 − 1post
Apr 16, 2025at SDSD 4 − 2
Apr 15, 2025at SDCHC 2 − 1

SD · Last 10

5−5 · streak L4
Jun 30at CHC7 − 9L
Jun 29at CHC2 − 3L
Jun 28vs LAD2 − 4L
Jun 27vs LAD3 − 15L
Jun 26vs LAD7 − 1W
Jun 24vs ATL5 − 2W
Jun 23vs ATL7 − 6W
Jun 22vs ATL1 − 0W
Jun 21at TEX3 − 4L
Jun 20at TEX6 − 4W

CHC · Last 10

8−2 · streak W4
Jun 30vs SD9 − 7W
Jun 29vs SD3 − 2W
Jun 28at MIL4 − 3W
Jun 27at MIL8 − 2W
Jun 26at MIL2 − 6L
Jun 25at NYM4 − 3W
Jun 24at NYM10 − 5W
Jun 24at NYM10 − 3W
Jun 23at NYM9 − 6W
Jun 20vs TOR6 − 8L