bayesRatings

Brewers at Diamondbacks

MLB · Sunday, Jul 5 · 3:00 PM CT · Chase Field · Final MIL 3 – ARI 2
← MLB / Jul 5

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIL000000300371
ARI100000100270
Team box
MIL·ARI
7
hits
7
1
home runs
0
0
walks
6
5
strikeouts
6
170
pitches thrown
136
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jake BauersMIL1-4112
Geraldo PerdomoARI3-5100
Corbin CarrollARI1-4001
Joey OrtizMIL1-3001
Jackson ChourioMIL2-4000
Ketel MarteARI1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Brandon SproatMIL4.05134
Drew Rom (W)MIL0.10001
Trevor Megill (S)MIL1.00010
Eduardo Rodriguez (L)ARI6.05203

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ARI +3
MIL +3
123456789
largest lead: ARI 1 · MIL 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIL 58%, ARI 42% · Updated Jul 5

Expected margin
MIL by 1.4
Expected score
MIL 5.3 – 3.9 ARI
Expected total
9.2
BrewersThe matchupDiamondbacks
−136Our fair odds+136
5.3Expected runs3.9
+0.35Power rating−0.02
5.1Runs / game4.3
3.7Allowed / game4.6
8.7Hits / game7.9
0.94Home runs / game0.90
4.2Walks drawn / game3.1
54−33Season record44−44
6−4Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIL chance · ARI chance
Our model fair57.6%42.4%
Kalshi53.7%50.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:00 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MILMilwaukee Brewers−13658%−11653.7%———
ARIArizona Diamondbacks+13642%−10350.7%———
SpreadMIL by 1.4
MILMilwaukee Brewers−1.4our margin————
ARIArizona Diamondbacks+1.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.2
Over9.2our total————
Under9.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Milwaukee Brewers by 1.4 expected
Milwaukee Brewers by 15 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 14 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 13 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 12 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 11 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 10 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 9 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 8 runs: 3%Milwaukee Brewers by 7 runs: 3%Milwaukee Brewers by 6 runs: 4%Milwaukee Brewers by 5 runs: 6%Milwaukee Brewers by 4 runs: 7%Milwaukee Brewers by 3 runs: 8%Milwaukee Brewers by 2 runs: 11%Milwaukee Brewers by 1 run: 11%Arizona Diamondbacks by 1 run: 16%Arizona Diamondbacks by 2 runs: 8%Arizona Diamondbacks by 3 runs: 5%Arizona Diamondbacks by 4 runs: 4%Arizona Diamondbacks by 5 runs: 3%Arizona Diamondbacks by 6 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 7 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 8 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 9 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 10 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 11 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 12 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 13 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 14 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 15 runs: <1%
← MIL wins byARI wins by →
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 2 or more49%
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 3 or more38%
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 2 or more25%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.2 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.559%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.527%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MILBrandon Sproat SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 3.60 ERA, 23 Kstarted
ARIEduardo Rodriguez SP · last 3 starts: 20.2 IP, 0.87 ERA, 11 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIL·ARI
Jul 4 at ARI
last game
Jul 4 vs MIL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 87+ games
MIL·ARI
+0.35
rating (0 = average)
−0.02
5.1
runs / game
4.3
3.7
runs allowed / game
4.6
54−33
season record
44−44
29−18
home record
27−19
25−15
away record
17−25
L1
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
5−5
8.7
hits / game
7.9
0.94
home runs / game
0.90
4.2
walks drawn / game
3.1
8.2
batter strikeouts / game
7.2
9.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
6.8
0.40
errors / game
0.38

Rating Trend

MIL · ARI · 102 days
Milwaukee BrewersArizona Diamondbacks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ARI 5−5
Jul 4at ARIARI 4 − 3
Jul 3at ARIMIL 7 − 4
Apr 30at MILMIL 13 − 1
Apr 29at MILARI 6 − 2
Apr 28at MILMIL 13 − 2
Aug 28, 2025at MILARI 6 − 4
Aug 27, 2025at MILARI 3 − 2
Aug 26, 2025at MILMIL 9 − 8
Aug 25, 2025at MILMIL 7 − 5
Apr 13, 2025at ARIARI 5 − 2

MIL · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Jul 4at ARI3 − 4L
Jul 3at ARI7 − 4W
Jul 2vs CIN2 − 7L
Jul 1vs CIN4 − 2W
Jun 30vs CIN7 − 2W
Jun 29vs CIN5 − 3W
Jun 28vs CHC3 − 4L
Jun 27vs CHC2 − 8L
Jun 26vs CHC6 − 2W
Jun 24at CIN6 − 5W

ARI · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Jul 4vs MIL4 − 3W
Jul 3vs MIL4 − 7L
Jul 1vs SF4 − 6L
Jun 30vs SF8 − 2W
Jun 29vs SF5 − 4W
Jun 28at TB1 − 5L
Jun 27at TB2 − 4L
Jun 26at TB1 − 6L
Jun 24at STL9 − 4W
Jun 23at STL4 − 3W