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Brewers at Cardinals

MLB · Thursday, Jul 9 · 6:45 PM CT · Busch Stadium · Final MIL 8 – STL 4
← MLB / Jul 9

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIL0240001018110
STL000103000450
Team box
MIL·STL
11
hits
5
2
home runs
1
3
walks
3
8
strikeouts
7
142
pitches thrown
165
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jake BauersMIL2-4213
Brice TurangMIL2-5212
Jordan WalkerSTL1-4113
Sal FrelickMIL2-4001
Cooper PrattMIL2-3001
Jackson ChourioMIL2-5200
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Logan Henderson (W)MIL5.13314
Andre Pallante (L)STL5.08622

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
STL +6
MIL +6
123456789
largest lead: STL 0 · MIL 6lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIL 57%, STL 43% · Updated Jul 9

Expected margin
MIL by 1.3
Expected score
MIL 5.0 – 3.7 STL
Expected total
8.7
BrewersThe matchupCardinals
−135Our fair odds+135
5.0Expected runs3.7
+0.38Power rating+0.01
5.1Runs / game4.6
3.6Allowed / game4.5
8.7Hits / game8.2
0.91Home runs / game1.14
4.1Walks drawn / game3.2
58−34Season record48−43
7−3Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIL chance · STL chance
Our model fair57.5%42.5%
Kalshi55.7%48.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:45 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MILMilwaukee Brewers−13557%−12655.7%———
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+13542%+10548.7%———
SpreadMIL by 1.3
MILMilwaukee Brewers−1.3our margin————
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+1.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.7
Over8.7our total————
Under8.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Milwaukee Brewers by 1.3 expected
Milwaukee Brewers by 15 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 14 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 13 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 12 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 11 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 10 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 9 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 8 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 7 runs: 3%Milwaukee Brewers by 6 runs: 4%Milwaukee Brewers by 5 runs: 6%Milwaukee Brewers by 4 runs: 7%Milwaukee Brewers by 3 runs: 9%Milwaukee Brewers by 2 runs: 11%Milwaukee Brewers by 1 run: 11%St. Louis Cardinals by 1 run: 16%St. Louis Cardinals by 2 runs: 8%St. Louis Cardinals by 3 runs: 5%St. Louis Cardinals by 4 runs: 4%St. Louis Cardinals by 5 runs: 3%St. Louis Cardinals by 6 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 7 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 8 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 9 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 10 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 11 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 12 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 13 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 14 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 15 runs: <1%
← MIL wins bySTL wins by →
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 2 or more48%
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 3 or more37%
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 2 or more25%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.7 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.567%
Total over 8.547%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MILLogan Henderson SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 1.80 ERA, 19 Kstarted
STLAndre Pallante SP · last 3 starts: 18.1 IP, 2.95 ERA, 8 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIL·STL
Jul 8 at STL
last game
Jul 8 vs MIL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
8
games in last 7 days
8
8th straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 91+ games
MIL·STL
+0.38
rating (0 = average)
+0.01
5.1
runs / game
4.6
3.6
runs allowed / game
4.5
58−34
season record
48−43
29−18
home record
24−24
29−16
away record
24−19
L1
streak
W1
7−3
last 10
5−5
8.7
hits / game
8.2
0.91
home runs / game
1.14
4.1
walks drawn / game
3.2
8.2
batter strikeouts / game
7.7
9.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.5
0.41
errors / game
0.48

Rating Trend

MIL · STL · 106 days
Milwaukee BrewersSt. Louis Cardinals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · STL 3−7
Jul 8at STLSTL 5 − 1
Jul 7at STLMIL 10 − 2
Jul 7at STLMIL 4 − 3
Jul 6at STLMIL 4 − 3
May 27at MILMIL 2 − 1
May 26at MILMIL 6 − 0
May 25at MILMIL 5 − 1
May 6at STLMIL 6 − 2
May 4at STLSTL 6 − 3
Sep 21, 2025at STLSTL 5 − 1

MIL · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Jul 8at STL1 − 5L
Jul 7at STL10 − 2W
Jul 7at STL4 − 3W
Jul 6at STL4 − 3W
Jul 5at ARI3 − 2W
Jul 4at ARI3 − 4L
Jul 3at ARI7 − 4W
Jul 2vs CIN2 − 7L
Jul 1vs CIN4 − 2W
Jun 30vs CIN7 − 2W

STL · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Jul 8vs MIL5 − 1W
Jul 7vs MIL2 − 10L
Jul 7vs MIL3 − 4L
Jul 6vs MIL3 − 4L
Jul 5at CHC4 − 6L
Jul 4at CHC3 − 0W
Jul 3at CHC17 − 1W
Jul 2at ATL11 − 5W
Jul 1at ATL1 − 5L
Jun 30at ATL5 − 3W