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Brewers at Cardinals

MLB · Wednesday, Jul 8 · 6:45 PM CT · Busch Stadium · Final MIL 1 – STL 5
← MLB / Jul 8

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIL000000100171
STL20010200570
Team box
MIL·STL
7
hits
7
0
home runs
2
2
walks
0
9
strikeouts
7
135
pitches thrown
133
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Alec BurlesonSTL2-4113
Jose FerminSTL1-3111
Cooper PrattMIL2-3001
Jordan WalkerSTL2-4201
Garrett MitchellMIL2-4100
Christian YelichMIL1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Kyle Harrison (L)MIL4.04302
Michael McGreevy (W)STL6.15116

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
STL +5
MIL +5
123456789
largest lead: STL 5 · MIL 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIL 58%, STL 42% · Updated Jul 8

Expected margin
MIL by 1.4
Expected score
MIL 5.1 – 3.7 STL
Expected total
8.8
BrewersThe matchupCardinals
−139Our fair odds+139
5.1Expected runs3.7
+0.39Power rating+0.00
5.1Runs / game4.6
3.6Allowed / game4.5
8.7Hits / game8.2
0.92Home runs / game1.13
4.1Walks drawn / game3.2
58−33Season record47−43
8−2Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIL chance · STL chance
Our model fair58.2%41.8%
Kalshi59.7%44.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:45 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MILMilwaukee Brewers−13958%−14859.7%———
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+13942%+12444.7%———
SpreadMIL by 1.4
MILMilwaukee Brewers−1.4our margin————
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+1.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.8
Over8.8our total————
Under8.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Milwaukee Brewers by 1.4 expected
Milwaukee Brewers by 15 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 14 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 13 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 12 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 11 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 10 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 9 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 8 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 7 runs: 3%Milwaukee Brewers by 6 runs: 4%Milwaukee Brewers by 5 runs: 6%Milwaukee Brewers by 4 runs: 7%Milwaukee Brewers by 3 runs: 9%Milwaukee Brewers by 2 runs: 11%Milwaukee Brewers by 1 run: 11%St. Louis Cardinals by 1 run: 16%St. Louis Cardinals by 2 runs: 8%St. Louis Cardinals by 3 runs: 5%St. Louis Cardinals by 4 runs: 4%St. Louis Cardinals by 5 runs: 3%St. Louis Cardinals by 6 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 7 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 8 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 9 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 10 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 11 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 12 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 13 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 14 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 15 runs: <1%
← MIL wins bySTL wins by →
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 2 or more48%
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 3 or more38%
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 2 or more24%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.8 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.568%
Total over 8.548%
Total over 10.531%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MILKyle Harrison SP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 4.50 ERA, 19 Kstarted
STLMichael McGreevy SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 3.71 ERA, 9 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIL·STL
Jul 7 at STL
last game
Jul 7 vs MIL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
8
games in last 7 days
8
7th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 90+ games
MIL·STL
+0.39
rating (0 = average)
+0.00
5.1
runs / game
4.6
3.6
runs allowed / game
4.5
58−33
season record
47−43
29−18
home record
23−24
29−15
away record
24−19
W4
streak
L4
8−2
last 10
5−5
8.7
hits / game
8.2
0.92
home runs / game
1.13
4.1
walks drawn / game
3.2
8.2
batter strikeouts / game
7.7
9.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.5
0.41
errors / game
0.49

Rating Trend

MIL · STL · 105 days
Milwaukee BrewersSt. Louis Cardinals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · STL 2−8
Jul 7at STLMIL 10 − 2
Jul 7at STLMIL 4 − 3
Jul 6at STLMIL 4 − 3
May 27at MILMIL 2 − 1
May 26at MILMIL 6 − 0
May 25at MILMIL 5 − 1
May 6at STLMIL 6 − 2
May 4at STLSTL 6 − 3
Sep 21, 2025at STLSTL 5 − 1
Sep 20, 2025at STLMIL 3 − 2

MIL · Last 10

8−2 · streak W4
Jul 7at STL10 − 2W
Jul 7at STL4 − 3W
Jul 6at STL4 − 3W
Jul 5at ARI3 − 2W
Jul 4at ARI3 − 4L
Jul 3at ARI7 − 4W
Jul 2vs CIN2 − 7L
Jul 1vs CIN4 − 2W
Jun 30vs CIN7 − 2W
Jun 29vs CIN5 − 3W

STL · Last 10

5−5 · streak L4
Jul 7vs MIL2 − 10L
Jul 7vs MIL3 − 4L
Jul 6vs MIL3 − 4L
Jul 5at CHC4 − 6L
Jul 4at CHC3 − 0W
Jul 3at CHC17 − 1W
Jul 2at ATL11 − 5W
Jul 1at ATL1 − 5L
Jun 30at ATL5 − 3W
Jun 28vs MIA2 − 1W