bayesRatings

Brewers at Pirates

MLB · Saturday, Jul 11 · 3:15 PM CT · PNC Park · Final MIL 2 – PIT 3
← MLB / Jul 11

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIL000020000270
PIT00020100370
Team box
MIL·PIT
7
hits
7
0
home runs
1
6
walks
1
9
strikeouts
6
103
pitches thrown
199
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Esmerlyn ValdezPIT1-4112
Brice TurangMIL1-5002
Bryan ReynoldsPIT2-3101
Joey OrtizMIL2-3100
Brandon LowePIT2-4100
Christian YelichMIL1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Shane Drohan (L)MIL6.15306
Bubba ChandlerPIT4.25236
Yohan Ramirez (W)PIT1.01000
Mason Montgomery (S)PIT1.00012

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PIT +3
MIL +3
123456789
largest lead: PIT 2 · MIL 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIL 58%, PIT 42% · Updated Jul 11

Expected margin
MIL by 1.3
Expected score
MIL 5.2 – 3.9 PIT
Expected total
9.2
BrewersThe matchupPirates
−140Our fair odds+140
5.2Expected runs3.9
+0.39Power rating−0.01
5.1Runs / game5.2
3.6Allowed / game4.9
8.7Hits / game9.1
0.92Home runs / game1.28
4.1Walks drawn / game3.8
59−34Season record47−47
7−3Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIL chance · PIT chance
Our model fair58.3%41.7%
Kalshi59.7%44.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MILMilwaukee Brewers−14058%−14859.7%———
PITPittsburgh Pirates+14042%+12444.7%———
SpreadMIL by 1.3
MILMilwaukee Brewers−1.3our margin————
PITPittsburgh Pirates+1.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.2
Over9.2our total————
Under9.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Milwaukee Brewers by 1.3 expected
Milwaukee Brewers by 15 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 14 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 13 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 12 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 11 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 10 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 9 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 8 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 7 runs: 3%Milwaukee Brewers by 6 runs: 4%Milwaukee Brewers by 5 runs: 6%Milwaukee Brewers by 4 runs: 7%Milwaukee Brewers by 3 runs: 8%Milwaukee Brewers by 2 runs: 11%Milwaukee Brewers by 1 run: 11%Pittsburgh Pirates by 1 run: 16%Pittsburgh Pirates by 2 runs: 8%Pittsburgh Pirates by 3 runs: 6%Pittsburgh Pirates by 4 runs: 4%Pittsburgh Pirates by 5 runs: 3%Pittsburgh Pirates by 6 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 7 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 8 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 9 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 10 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 11 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 12 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 13 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 14 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 15 runs: <1%
← MIL wins byPIT wins by →
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 2 or more48%
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 3 or more37%
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 2 or more26%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.2 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.559%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.527%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MILShane Drohan SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 1.69 ERA, 14 Kstarted
PITBubba Chandler SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 5.74 ERA, 10 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIL·PIT
Jul 11 at PIT
last game
Jul 11 vs MIL
same day
days of rest
same day
8
games in last 7 days
6
10th straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 93+ games
MIL·PIT
+0.39
rating (0 = average)
−0.01
5.1
runs / game
5.2
3.6
runs allowed / game
4.9
59−34
season record
47−47
29−18
home record
24−24
30−16
away record
23−23
W1
streak
L2
7−3
last 10
5−5
8.7
hits / game
9.1
0.92
home runs / game
1.28
4.1
walks drawn / game
3.8
8.2
batter strikeouts / game
9.4
9.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.1
0.41
errors / game
0.60

Rating Trend

MIL · PIT · 108 days
Milwaukee BrewersPittsburgh Pirates
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PIT 2−8
Apr 26at MILMIL 5 − 0
Apr 25at MILPIT 6 − 3
Apr 24at MILPIT 6 − 0
Sep 7, 2025at PITMIL 10 − 2
Sep 6, 2025at PITMIL 4 − 1
Sep 5, 2025at PITMIL 5 − 2
Aug 13, 2025at MILMIL 12 − 5
Aug 12, 2025at MILMIL 14 − 0
Aug 11, 2025at MILMIL 7 − 1
Jun 25, 2025at MILMIL 4 − 2

MIL · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Jul 9at STL8 − 4W
Jul 8at STL1 − 5L
Jul 7at STL10 − 2W
Jul 7at STL4 − 3W
Jul 6at STL4 − 3W
Jul 5at ARI3 − 2W
Jul 4at ARI3 − 4L
Jul 3at ARI7 − 4W
Jul 2vs CIN2 − 7L
Jul 1vs CIN4 − 2W

PIT · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Jul 9vs ATL5 − 10L
Jul 8vs ATL0 − 3L
Jul 7vs ATL12 − 4W
Jul 5at WSH11 − 5W
Jul 4at WSH7 − 1W
Jul 3at WSH5 − 9L
Jul 2at PHI6 − 1W
Jul 1at PHI6 − 10L
Jun 30at PHI0 − 8L
Jun 29at PHI11 − 7W