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Marlins at Brewers

MLB · Saturday, Jul 18 · 3:10 PM CT · American Family Field · Final MIA 6 – MIL 8
← MLB / Jul 18

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIA030000003673
MIL011004208100
Team box
MIA·MIL
7
hits
10
1
home runs
0
2
walks
7
13
strikeouts
10
185
pitches thrown
138
3
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Griffin ConineMIA1-2113
Garrett MitchellMIL3-5102
Christian YelichMIL1-3102
Braden ShewmakeMIL2-3201
Jackson ChourioMIL1-3202
Leo JimenezMIA1-2201
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Max MeyerMIA3.03235
Calvin Faucher (L)MIA0.23421
Shane Drohan (W)MIL6.05319
Trevor Megill (S)MIL1.00001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIL +5
MIA +5
123456789
largest lead: MIL 5 · MIA 3lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIA 41%, MIL 59% · Updated Jul 18

Expected margin
MIL by 1.1
Expected score
MIL 4.8 – 3.7 MIA
Expected total
8.5
MarlinsThe matchupBrewers
+144Our fair odds−144
3.7Expected runs4.8
+0.02Power rating+0.34
4.5Runs / game5.1
4.3Allowed / game3.8
8.4Hits / game8.6
1.01Home runs / game0.93
3.4Walks drawn / game4.2
52−46Season record60−37
6−4Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIA chance · MIL chance
Our model fair40.9%59.1%
Kalshi47.7%57.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MIAMiami Marlins+14441%+10947.7%———
MILMilwaukee Brewers−14459%−13757.7%———
SpreadMIL by 1.1
MIAMiami Marlins+1.1our margin————
MILMilwaukee Brewers−1.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.5
Over8.5our total————
Under8.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Milwaukee Brewers by 1.1 expected
Miami Marlins by 14 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 13 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 12 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 11 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 10 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 9 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 8 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 7 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 6 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 5 runs: 3%Miami Marlins by 4 runs: 4%Miami Marlins by 3 runs: 6%Miami Marlins by 2 runs: 9%Miami Marlins by 1 run: 14%Milwaukee Brewers by 1 run: 14%Milwaukee Brewers by 2 runs: 11%Milwaukee Brewers by 3 runs: 8%Milwaukee Brewers by 4 runs: 7%Milwaukee Brewers by 5 runs: 5%Milwaukee Brewers by 6 runs: 4%Milwaukee Brewers by 7 runs: 3%Milwaukee Brewers by 8 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 9 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 10 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 11 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 12 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 13 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 14 runs: <1%
← MIA wins byMIL wins by →
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 2 or more45%
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 3 or more34%
Miami Marlins wins by 2 or more26%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.5 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.545%
Total over 10.529%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MIAMax Meyer SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 1.50 ERA, 14 Kstarted
MILShane Drohan SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 3.00 ERA, 15 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIA·MIL
Jul 17 at MIL
last game
Jul 17 vs MIA
0 days
days of rest
0 days
3
games in last 7 days
4
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 97+ games
MIA·MIL
+0.02
rating (0 = average)
+0.34
4.5
runs / game
5.1
4.3
runs allowed / game
3.8
52−46
season record
60−37
31−20
home record
30−18
21−26
away record
30−19
L4
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
6−4
8.4
hits / game
8.6
1.01
home runs / game
0.93
3.4
walks drawn / game
4.2
8.0
batter strikeouts / game
8.2
8.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.7
0.61
errors / game
0.41

Rating Trend

MIA · MIL · 112 days
Miami MarlinsMilwaukee Brewers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIL 6−4
Jul 17at MILMIL 2 − 1
Apr 19at MIAMIA 5 − 3
Apr 18at MIAMIL 5 − 2
Apr 17at MIAMIL 7 − 5
Jul 27, 2025at MILMIL 3 − 2
Jul 26, 2025at MILMIA 7 − 4
Jul 25, 2025at MILMIA 5 − 1
Jul 6, 2025at MIAMIL 3 − 1
Jul 5, 2025at MIAMIA 4 − 2
Jul 4, 2025at MIAMIL 6 − 5

MIA · Last 10

6−4 · streak L4
Jul 17at MIL1 − 2L
Jul 12vs CLE2 − 5L
Jul 11vs CLE1 − 4L
Jul 10vs CLE2 − 3L
Jul 9vs SEA8 − 4W
Jul 8vs SEA2 − 0W
Jul 7vs SEA6 − 5W
Jul 5at ATH9 − 8W
Jul 4at ATH7 − 2W
Jul 3at ATH12 − 5W

MIL · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Jul 17vs MIA2 − 1W
Jul 12at PIT5 − 14L
Jul 11at PIT2 − 3L
Jul 11at PIT6 − 7L
Jul 9at STL8 − 4W
Jul 8at STL1 − 5L
Jul 7at STL10 − 2W
Jul 7at STL4 − 3W
Jul 6at STL4 − 3W
Jul 5at ARI3 − 2W