bayesRatings

Marlins at Brewers

MLB · Friday, Jul 17 · 6:40 PM CT · American Family Field · Final MIA 1 – MIL 2
← MLB / Jul 17

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team12345678910THE
MIA0000100000170
MIL0000100001260
Team box
MIA·MIL
7
hits
6
1
home runs
1
0
walks
8
9
strikeouts
13
183
pitches thrown
145
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Joey OrtizMIL2-4111
Griffin ConineMIA1-2111
Garrett MitchellMIL2-4001
Otto LopezMIA2-4000
Xavier EdwardsMIA1-4000
Heriberto HernandezMIA1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Sandy AlcantaraMIA6.03147
Lake Bachar (L)MIA0.21012
Logan HendersonMIL5.03104
Craig Yoho (W)MIL1.00000

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIL +3
MIA +3
12345678910
largest lead: MIL 1 · MIA 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIA 41%, MIL 59% · Updated Jul 17

Expected margin
MIL by 1.0
Expected score
MIL 4.8 – 3.8 MIA
Expected total
8.6
MarlinsThe matchupBrewers
+145Our fair odds−145
3.8Expected runs4.8
+0.02Power rating+0.33
4.5Runs / game5.1
4.3Allowed / game3.8
8.4Hits / game8.7
1.01Home runs / game0.93
3.4Walks drawn / game4.1
52−45Season record59−37
6−4Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIA chance · MIL chance
Our model fair40.9%59.1%
Kalshi44.7%59.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MIAMiami Marlins+14541%+12444.7%———
MILMilwaukee Brewers−14559%−14859.7%———
SpreadMIL by 1.0
MIAMiami Marlins+1our margin————
MILMilwaukee Brewers−1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.6
Over8.6our total————
Under8.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Milwaukee Brewers by 1.0 expected
Miami Marlins by 14 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 13 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 12 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 11 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 10 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 9 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 8 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 7 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 6 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 5 runs: 3%Miami Marlins by 4 runs: 4%Miami Marlins by 3 runs: 6%Miami Marlins by 2 runs: 9%Miami Marlins by 1 run: 13%Milwaukee Brewers by 1 run: 15%Milwaukee Brewers by 2 runs: 11%Milwaukee Brewers by 3 runs: 8%Milwaukee Brewers by 4 runs: 7%Milwaukee Brewers by 5 runs: 5%Milwaukee Brewers by 6 runs: 4%Milwaukee Brewers by 7 runs: 3%Milwaukee Brewers by 8 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 9 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 10 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 11 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 12 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 13 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 14 runs: <1%
← MIA wins byMIL wins by →
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 2 or more44%
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 3 or more33%
Miami Marlins wins by 2 or more28%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.6 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.566%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MIASandy Alcantara SP · last 3 starts: 20.2 IP, 3.92 ERA, 19 Kstarted
MILLogan Henderson SP · last 3 starts: 15.1 IP, 2.35 ERA, 18 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIA·MIL
Jul 12 vs CLE
last game
Jul 12 at PIT
4 days
days of rest
4 days
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 96+ games
MIA·MIL
+0.02
rating (0 = average)
+0.33
4.5
runs / game
5.1
4.3
runs allowed / game
3.8
52−45
season record
59−37
31−20
home record
29−18
21−25
away record
30−19
L3
streak
L3
6−4
last 10
5−5
8.4
hits / game
8.7
1.01
home runs / game
0.93
3.4
walks drawn / game
4.1
8.0
batter strikeouts / game
8.2
8.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.7
0.62
errors / game
0.42

Rating Trend

MIA · MIL · 111 days
Miami MarlinsMilwaukee Brewers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIL 6−4
Apr 19at MIAMIA 5 − 3
Apr 18at MIAMIL 5 − 2
Apr 17at MIAMIL 7 − 5
Jul 27, 2025at MILMIL 3 − 2
Jul 26, 2025at MILMIA 7 − 4
Jul 25, 2025at MILMIA 5 − 1
Jul 6, 2025at MIAMIL 3 − 1
Jul 5, 2025at MIAMIA 4 − 2
Jul 4, 2025at MIAMIL 6 − 5
Jul 28, 2024at MILMIL 6 − 2

MIA · Last 10

6−4 · streak L3
Jul 12vs CLE2 − 5L
Jul 11vs CLE1 − 4L
Jul 10vs CLE2 − 3L
Jul 9vs SEA8 − 4W
Jul 8vs SEA2 − 0W
Jul 7vs SEA6 − 5W
Jul 5at ATH9 − 8W
Jul 4at ATH7 − 2W
Jul 3at ATH12 − 5W
Jul 2at COL4 − 14L

MIL · Last 10

5−5 · streak L3
Jul 12at PIT5 − 14L
Jul 11at PIT2 − 3L
Jul 11at PIT6 − 7L
Jul 9at STL8 − 4W
Jul 8at STL1 − 5L
Jul 7at STL10 − 2W
Jul 7at STL4 − 3W
Jul 6at STL4 − 3W
Jul 5at ARI3 − 2W
Jul 4at ARI3 − 4L