bayesRatings

Padres at Royals

MLB · Friday, Jul 17 · 7:10 PM CT · Kauffman Stadium · Final SD 6 – KC 7
← MLB / Jul 17

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team12345678910THE
SD0000200013682
KC01000101047132
Team box
SD·KC
8
hits
13
1
home runs
1
2
walks
5
4
strikeouts
9
170
pitches thrown
152
2
errors
2
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Michael MasseyKC3-5102
Carter JensenKC3-5002
Lane ThomasKC2-4211
Miguel AndujarSD3-4201
Fernando Tatis Jr.SD3-5001
Ty FranceSD1-3211
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Michael KingSD5.04124
Kyle Hart (L)SD0.14300
Seth LugoKC6.04123
Lucas Erceg (W)KC1.02100

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
KC +3
SD +3
12345678910
largest lead: KC 1 · SD 3lead changes: 4

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SD 52%, KC 48% · Updated Jul 17

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
SD 4.4 – 4.2 KC
Expected total
8.7
PadresThe matchupRoyals
−110Our fair odds+110
4.4Expected runs4.2
+0.01Power rating−0.15
3.9Runs / game4.2
4.4Allowed / game5.1
7.4Hits / game8.3
1.03Home runs / game1.00
3.4Walks drawn / game3.2
48−48Season record38−59
5−5Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SD chance · KC chance
Our model fair52.5%47.5%
Kalshi55.7%49.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SDSan Diego Padres−11052%−12655.7%———
KCKansas City Royals+11048%+10149.7%———
Spreadabout even
SDSan Diego Padres−0.2our margin————
KCKansas City Royals+0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.7
Over8.7our total————
Under8.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
San Diego Padres by 13 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 12 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 11 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 10 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 9 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 8 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 7 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 6 runs: 3%San Diego Padres by 5 runs: 4%San Diego Padres by 4 runs: 6%San Diego Padres by 3 runs: 7%San Diego Padres by 2 runs: 10%San Diego Padres by 1 run: 15%Kansas City Royals by 1 run: 13%Kansas City Royals by 2 runs: 10%Kansas City Royals by 3 runs: 7%Kansas City Royals by 4 runs: 5%Kansas City Royals by 5 runs: 4%Kansas City Royals by 6 runs: 3%Kansas City Royals by 7 runs: 2%Kansas City Royals by 8 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 9 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 10 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 11 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 12 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 13 runs: <1%
← SD wins byKC wins by →
San Diego Padres wins by 2 or more37%
San Diego Padres wins by 3 or more27%
Kansas City Royals wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.7 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.567%
Total over 8.547%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SDMichael King SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 3.86 ERA, 14 Kstarted
KCSeth Lugo SP · last 3 starts: 14.1 IP, 6.91 ERA, 17 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SD·KC
Jul 12 vs TOR
last game
Jul 12 at BAL
4 days
days of rest
4 days
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 96+ games
SD·KC
+0.01
rating (0 = average)
−0.15
3.9
runs / game
4.2
4.4
runs allowed / game
5.1
48−48
season record
38−59
27−24
home record
21−26
21−24
away record
17−33
W2
streak
L5
5−5
last 10
3−7
7.4
hits / game
8.3
1.03
home runs / game
1.00
3.4
walks drawn / game
3.2
8.4
batter strikeouts / game
8.1
8.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.7
0.36
errors / game
0.46

Rating Trend

SD · KC · 111 days
San Diego PadresKansas City Royals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · KC 5−5
Jun 22, 2025at SDSD 3 − 2
Jun 21, 2025at SDSD 5 − 1
Jun 20, 2025at SDKC 6 − 5
Jun 2, 2024at KCKC 4 − 3
Jun 1, 2024at KCSD 7 − 3
May 31, 2024at KCSD 11 − 8
May 17, 2023at SDKC 4 − 3
May 16, 2023at SDKC 5 − 4
May 15, 2023at SDSD 4 − 0
Aug 28, 2022at KCKC 15 − 7

SD · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Jul 12vs TOR5 − 4W
Jul 11vs TOR8 − 7W
Jul 10vs TOR3 − 5L
Jul 9vs ARI1 − 3L
Jul 8vs ARI10 − 4W
Jul 7vs ARI4 − 1W
Jul 6vs ARI0 − 8L
Jul 5at LAD5 − 2W
Jul 4at LAD0 − 3L
Jul 3at LAD3 − 4L

KC · Last 10

3−7 · streak L5
Jul 12at BAL2 − 8L
Jul 11at BAL1 − 6L
Jul 10at BAL3 − 5L
Jul 9at NYM3 − 7L
Jul 8at NYM2 − 6L
Jul 7at NYM16 − 12W
Jul 6vs PHI15 − 1W
Jul 5vs PHI5 − 2W
Jul 4vs PHI1 − 6L
Jul 2vs TB2 − 5L