bayesRatings

Rays at Royals

MLB · Thursday, Jul 2 · 6:40 PM CT · Kauffman Stadium · Final TB 5 – KC 2
← MLB / Jul 2

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TB0300200005111
KC100000100250
Team box
TB·KC
11
hits
5
1
home runs
2
3
walks
1
3
strikeouts
10
116
pitches thrown
152
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Cedric MullinsTB2-4112
Carter JensenKC2-4111
Hunter FeducciaTB3-4001
Isaac CollinsKC1-3111
Chandler SimpsonTB3-4200
Taylor WallsTB1-3101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Ian Seymour (W)TB6.03118
Bryan Baker (S)TB1.00001
Stephen Kolek (L)KC2.04310

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
KC +4
TB +4
123456789
largest lead: KC 1 · TB 4lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TB 54%, KC 46% · Updated Jul 2

Expected margin
TB by 0.6
Expected score
TB 4.6 – 4.0 KC
Expected total
8.6
RaysThe matchupRoyals
−115Our fair odds+115
4.6Expected runs4.0
+0.08Power rating−0.13
4.6Runs / game4.1
4.2Allowed / game5.1
8.7Hits / game8.1
0.94Home runs / game0.98
3.6Walks drawn / game3.3
50−33Season record35−52
8−2Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TB chance · KC chance
Our model fair53.5%46.5%
Kalshi56.7%47.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TBTampa Bay Rays−11554%−13156.7%———
KCKansas City Royals+11546%+10947.7%———
SpreadTB by 0.6
TBTampa Bay Rays−0.6our margin————
KCKansas City Royals+0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.6
Over8.6our total————
Under8.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Tampa Bay Rays by 0.6 expected
Tampa Bay Rays by 13 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 12 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 11 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 10 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 9 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 8 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 7 runs: 3%Tampa Bay Rays by 6 runs: 4%Tampa Bay Rays by 5 runs: 5%Tampa Bay Rays by 4 runs: 6%Tampa Bay Rays by 3 runs: 8%Tampa Bay Rays by 2 runs: 11%Tampa Bay Rays by 1 run: 13%Kansas City Royals by 1 run: 16%Kansas City Royals by 2 runs: 9%Kansas City Royals by 3 runs: 6%Kansas City Royals by 4 runs: 5%Kansas City Royals by 5 runs: 3%Kansas City Royals by 6 runs: 2%Kansas City Royals by 7 runs: 2%Kansas City Royals by 8 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 9 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 10 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 11 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 12 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 13 runs: <1%
← TB wins byKC wins by →
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 2 or more41%
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 3 or more31%
Kansas City Royals wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.6 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.566%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TBIan Seymour SP · last 3 starts: 11.0 IP, 4.09 ERA, 11 Kstarted
KCStephen Kolek SP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 6.43 ERA, 7 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TB·KC
Jul 1 at KC
last game
Jul 1 vs TB
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 83+ games
TB·KC
+0.08
rating (0 = average)
−0.13
4.6
runs / game
4.1
4.2
runs allowed / game
5.1
50−33
season record
35−52
31−12
home record
19−24
19−21
away record
16−28
W7
streak
L2
8−2
last 10
3−7
8.7
hits / game
8.1
0.94
home runs / game
0.98
3.6
walks drawn / game
3.3
7.1
batter strikeouts / game
7.9
7.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.7
0.59
errors / game
0.44

Rating Trend

TB · KC · 99 days
Tampa Bay RaysKansas City Royals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · KC 3−7
Jul 1at KCTB 4 − 0
Jun 30at KCTB 10 − 4
Jun 25at TBTB 13 − 2
Jun 24at TBTB 5 − 3
Jun 23at TBKC 12 − 5
Jun 22at TBKC 2 − 1
Jun 26, 2025at KCTB 4 − 0
Jun 25, 2025at KCTB 3 − 0
Jun 24, 2025at KCTB 5 − 1
May 1, 2025at TBKC 8 − 2

TB · Last 10

8−2 · streak W7
Jul 1at KC4 − 0W
Jun 30at KC10 − 4W
Jun 28vs ARI5 − 1W
Jun 27vs ARI4 − 2W
Jun 26vs ARI6 − 1W
Jun 25vs KC13 − 2W
Jun 24vs KC5 − 3W
Jun 23vs KC5 − 12L
Jun 22vs KC1 − 2L
Jun 21vs WSH4 − 3W

KC · Last 10

3−7 · streak L2
Jul 1vs TB0 − 4L
Jun 30vs TB4 − 10L
Jun 28at CHW5 − 4W
Jun 27at CHW1 − 2L
Jun 26at CHW1 − 22L
Jun 25at TB2 − 13L
Jun 24at TB3 − 5L
Jun 23at TB12 − 5W
Jun 22at TB2 − 1W
Jun 21vs STL10 − 12L