bayesRatings

Rays at Royals

MLB · Tuesday, Jun 30 · 6:40 PM CT · Kauffman Stadium · Final TB 10 – KC 4
← MLB / Jun 30

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TB00602200010110
KC102000010461
Team box
TB·KC
11
hits
6
2
home runs
3
11
walks
1
2
strikeouts
7
115
pitches thrown
181
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Bobby Witt Jr.KC3-4223
Junior CamineroTB2-5113
Nick FortesTB2-5102
Carter JensenKC1-4111
Ryan ViladeTB1-3211
Jonathan ArandaTB2-3101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Griffin Jax (W)TB6.05305
Noah Cameron (L)KC3.29630

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
KC +7
TB +7
123456789
largest lead: KC 1 · TB 7lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TB 53%, KC 47% · Updated Jun 30

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
TB 4.5 – 4.1 KC
Expected total
8.6
RaysThe matchupRoyals
−111Our fair odds+111
4.5Expected runs4.1
+0.06Power rating−0.11
4.5Runs / game4.2
4.2Allowed / game5.0
8.6Hits / game8.2
0.91Home runs / game0.96
3.6Walks drawn / game3.3
48−33Season record35−50
7−3Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TB chance · KC chance
Our model fair52.5%47.5%
Kalshi54.7%50.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TBTampa Bay Rays−11153%−12154.7%———
KCKansas City Royals+11147%−10350.7%———
Spreadabout even
TBTampa Bay Rays−0.4our margin————
KCKansas City Royals+0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.6
Over8.6our total————
Under8.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Tampa Bay Rays by 13 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 12 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 11 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 10 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 9 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 8 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 7 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 6 runs: 3%Tampa Bay Rays by 5 runs: 5%Tampa Bay Rays by 4 runs: 6%Tampa Bay Rays by 3 runs: 8%Tampa Bay Rays by 2 runs: 10%Tampa Bay Rays by 1 run: 13%Kansas City Royals by 1 run: 15%Kansas City Royals by 2 runs: 9%Kansas City Royals by 3 runs: 7%Kansas City Royals by 4 runs: 5%Kansas City Royals by 5 runs: 4%Kansas City Royals by 6 runs: 3%Kansas City Royals by 7 runs: 2%Kansas City Royals by 8 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 9 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 10 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 11 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 12 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 13 runs: <1%
← TB wins byKC wins by →
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 2 or more39%
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 3 or more29%
Kansas City Royals wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.6 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.566%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TBGriffin Jax SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 1.20 ERA, 17 Kstarted
KCNoah Cameron SP · last 3 starts: 14.1 IP, 7.53 ERA, 12 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TB·KC
Jun 28 vs ARI
last game
Jun 28 at CHW
1 day
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 81+ games
TB·KC
+0.06
rating (0 = average)
−0.11
4.5
runs / game
4.2
4.2
runs allowed / game
5.0
48−33
season record
35−50
31−12
home record
19−22
17−21
away record
16−28
W5
streak
W1
7−3
last 10
5−5
8.6
hits / game
8.2
0.91
home runs / game
0.96
3.6
walks drawn / game
3.3
7.2
batter strikeouts / game
8.0
7.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.7
0.58
errors / game
0.44

Rating Trend

TB · KC · 97 days
Tampa Bay RaysKansas City Royals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · KC 5−5
Jun 25at TBTB 13 − 2
Jun 24at TBTB 5 − 3
Jun 23at TBKC 12 − 5
Jun 22at TBKC 2 − 1
Jun 26, 2025at KCTB 4 − 0
Jun 25, 2025at KCTB 3 − 0
Jun 24, 2025at KCTB 5 − 1
May 1, 2025at TBKC 8 − 2
Apr 30, 2025at TBKC 3 − 0
Apr 29, 2025at TBKC 3 − 1

TB · Last 10

7−3 · streak W5
Jun 28vs ARI5 − 1W
Jun 27vs ARI4 − 2W
Jun 26vs ARI6 − 1W
Jun 25vs KC13 − 2W
Jun 24vs KC5 − 3W
Jun 23vs KC5 − 12L
Jun 22vs KC1 − 2L
Jun 21vs WSH4 − 3W
Jun 20vs WSH3 − 4L
Jun 19vs WSH5 − 2W

KC · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Jun 28at CHW5 − 4W
Jun 27at CHW1 − 2L
Jun 26at CHW1 − 22L
Jun 25at TB2 − 13L
Jun 24at TB3 − 5L
Jun 23at TB12 − 5W
Jun 22at TB2 − 1W
Jun 21vs STL10 − 12L
Jun 19vs STL6 − 5W
Jun 18vs STL14 − 6W