bayesRatings

Rays at Royals

MLB · Wednesday, Jul 1 · 6:40 PM CT · Kauffman Stadium · Final TB 4 – KC 0
← MLB / Jul 1

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TB2000010104112
KC000000000060
Team box
TB·KC
11
hits
6
2
home runs
0
0
walks
1
10
strikeouts
7
111
pitches thrown
136
2
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Cedric MullinsTB2-4112
Junior CamineroTB1-4112
Taylor WallsTB3-4000
Jac CaglianoneKC2-4000
Jonathan ArandaTB2-3100
Chandler SimpsonTB2-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Shane McClanahan (W)TB6.03004
Kevin Kelly (S)TB1.11000
Seth Lugo (L)KC6.09307

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
KC +4
TB +4
123456789
largest lead: KC 0 · TB 4lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TB 53%, KC 47% · Updated Jul 1

Expected margin
TB by 0.6
Expected score
TB 4.6 – 4.0 KC
Expected total
8.7
RaysThe matchupRoyals
−113Our fair odds+113
4.6Expected runs4.0
+0.07Power rating−0.12
4.6Runs / game4.2
4.2Allowed / game5.1
8.7Hits / game8.2
0.93Home runs / game0.99
3.7Walks drawn / game3.3
49−33Season record35−51
7−3Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TB chance · KC chance
Our model fair53.1%46.9%
Kalshi60.7%44.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TBTampa Bay Rays−11353%−15460.7%———
KCKansas City Royals+11347%+12444.7%———
SpreadTB by 0.6
TBTampa Bay Rays−0.6our margin————
KCKansas City Royals+0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.7
Over8.7our total————
Under8.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Tampa Bay Rays by 0.6 expected
Tampa Bay Rays by 13 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 12 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 11 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 10 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 9 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 8 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 7 runs: 3%Tampa Bay Rays by 6 runs: 4%Tampa Bay Rays by 5 runs: 5%Tampa Bay Rays by 4 runs: 6%Tampa Bay Rays by 3 runs: 8%Tampa Bay Rays by 2 runs: 10%Tampa Bay Rays by 1 run: 12%Kansas City Royals by 1 run: 16%Kansas City Royals by 2 runs: 9%Kansas City Royals by 3 runs: 6%Kansas City Royals by 4 runs: 5%Kansas City Royals by 5 runs: 3%Kansas City Royals by 6 runs: 2%Kansas City Royals by 7 runs: 2%Kansas City Royals by 8 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 9 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 10 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 11 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 12 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 13 runs: <1%
← TB wins byKC wins by →
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 2 or more41%
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 3 or more31%
Kansas City Royals wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.7 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.567%
Total over 8.547%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TBShane McClanahan SP · last 3 starts: 13.2 IP, 5.27 ERA, 14 Kstarted
KCSeth Lugo SP · last 3 starts: 14.1 IP, 5.65 ERA, 5 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TB·KC
Jun 30 at KC
last game
Jun 30 vs TB
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 82+ games
TB·KC
+0.07
rating (0 = average)
−0.12
4.6
runs / game
4.2
4.2
runs allowed / game
5.1
49−33
season record
35−51
31−12
home record
19−23
18−21
away record
16−28
W6
streak
L1
7−3
last 10
4−6
8.7
hits / game
8.2
0.93
home runs / game
0.99
3.7
walks drawn / game
3.3
7.1
batter strikeouts / game
8.0
7.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.7
0.57
errors / game
0.44

Rating Trend

TB · KC · 98 days
Tampa Bay RaysKansas City Royals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · KC 4−6
Jun 30at KCTB 10 − 4
Jun 25at TBTB 13 − 2
Jun 24at TBTB 5 − 3
Jun 23at TBKC 12 − 5
Jun 22at TBKC 2 − 1
Jun 26, 2025at KCTB 4 − 0
Jun 25, 2025at KCTB 3 − 0
Jun 24, 2025at KCTB 5 − 1
May 1, 2025at TBKC 8 − 2
Apr 30, 2025at TBKC 3 − 0

TB · Last 10

7−3 · streak W6
Jun 30at KC10 − 4W
Jun 28vs ARI5 − 1W
Jun 27vs ARI4 − 2W
Jun 26vs ARI6 − 1W
Jun 25vs KC13 − 2W
Jun 24vs KC5 − 3W
Jun 23vs KC5 − 12L
Jun 22vs KC1 − 2L
Jun 21vs WSH4 − 3W
Jun 20vs WSH3 − 4L

KC · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Jun 30vs TB4 − 10L
Jun 28at CHW5 − 4W
Jun 27at CHW1 − 2L
Jun 26at CHW1 − 22L
Jun 25at TB2 − 13L
Jun 24at TB3 − 5L
Jun 23at TB12 − 5W
Jun 22at TB2 − 1W
Jun 21vs STL10 − 12L
Jun 19vs STL6 − 5W