bayesRatings

Padres at Dodgers

MLB · Sunday, Jul 5 · 6:20 PM CT · Dodger Stadium · Final SD 5 – LAD 2
← MLB / Jul 5

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SD000100400580
LAD000000200240
Team box
SD·LAD
8
hits
4
1
home runs
0
6
walks
6
9
strikeouts
10
163
pitches thrown
177
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Manny MachadoSD1-2213
Fernando Tatis Jr.SD3-5101
Shohei OhtaniLAD1-3001
Alex FreelandLAD1-4001
Jackson MerrillSD1-4001
Miguel RojasLAD1-2000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
JP Sears (W)SD5.01025
Mason Miller (S)SD1.00001
Emmet Sheehan (L)LAD4.13135

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAD +5
SD +5
123456789
largest lead: LAD 0 · SD 5lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SD 38%, LAD 62% · Updated Jul 5

Expected margin
LAD by 1.5
Expected score
LAD 5.0 – 3.5 SD
Expected total
8.6
PadresThe matchupDodgers
+162Our fair odds−162
3.5Expected runs5.0
−0.00Power rating+0.43
3.9Runs / game5.3
4.4Allowed / game3.5
7.3Hits / game8.9
1.06Home runs / game1.36
3.3Walks drawn / game4.1
43−45Season record59−31
2−8Last 108−2

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SD chance · LAD chance
Our model fair38.2%61.8%
Kalshi35.6%69.5%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:20 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SDSan Diego Padres+16238%+18135.6%———
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−16262%−22869.5%———
SpreadLAD by 1.5
SDSan Diego Padres+1.5our margin————
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−1.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.6
Over8.6our total————
Under8.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Dodgers by 1.5 expected
San Diego Padres by 15 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 14 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 13 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 12 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 11 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 10 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 9 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 8 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 7 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 6 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 5 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 4 runs: 4%San Diego Padres by 3 runs: 5%San Diego Padres by 2 runs: 8%San Diego Padres by 1 run: 14%Los Angeles Dodgers by 1 run: 13%Los Angeles Dodgers by 2 runs: 11%Los Angeles Dodgers by 3 runs: 9%Los Angeles Dodgers by 4 runs: 7%Los Angeles Dodgers by 5 runs: 6%Los Angeles Dodgers by 6 runs: 4%Los Angeles Dodgers by 7 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 8 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 9 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 11 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 12 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 15 runs: <1%
← SD wins byLAD wins by →
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 2 or more49%
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 3 or more38%
San Diego Padres wins by 2 or more23%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.6 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.566%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SDJP Sears SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 5.62 ERA, 13 Kstarted
LADEmmet Sheehan SP · last 3 starts: 13.1 IP, 6.75 ERA, 17 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SD·LAD
Jul 4 at LAD
last game
Jul 4 vs SD
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
7
7th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 88+ games
SD·LAD
−0.00
rating (0 = average)
+0.43
3.9
runs / game
5.3
4.4
runs allowed / game
3.5
43−45
season record
59−31
23−21
home record
29−14
20−24
away record
30−17
L8
streak
W3
2−8
last 10
8−2
7.3
hits / game
8.9
1.06
home runs / game
1.36
3.3
walks drawn / game
4.1
8.5
batter strikeouts / game
7.8
8.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.9
0.34
errors / game
0.29

Rating Trend

SD · LAD · 102 days
San Diego PadresLos Angeles Dodgers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAD 8−2
Jul 4at LADLAD 3 − 0
Jul 3at LADLAD 4 − 3
Jul 2at LADLAD 12 − 7
Jun 28at SDLAD 4 − 2
Jun 27at SDLAD 15 − 3
Jun 26at SDSD 7 − 1
May 20at SDLAD 4 − 0
May 19at SDLAD 5 − 4
May 18at SDSD 1 − 0
Aug 24, 2025at SDLAD 8 − 2

SD · Last 10

2−8 · streak L8
Jul 4at LAD0 − 3L
Jul 3at LAD3 − 4L
Jul 2at LAD7 − 12L
Jul 1at CHC3 − 23L
Jun 30at CHC7 − 9L
Jun 29at CHC2 − 3L
Jun 28vs LAD2 − 4L
Jun 27vs LAD3 − 15L
Jun 26vs LAD7 − 1W
Jun 24vs ATL5 − 2W

LAD · Last 10

8−2 · streak W3
Jul 4vs SD3 − 0W
Jul 3vs SD4 − 3W
Jul 2vs SD12 − 7W
Jul 1at ATH1 − 7L
Jun 30at ATH9 − 3W
Jun 29at ATH9 − 4W
Jun 28at SD4 − 2W
Jun 27at SD15 − 3W
Jun 26at SD1 − 7L
Jun 24at MIN4 − 3W