bayesRatings

Padres at Dodgers

MLB · Thursday, Jul 2 · 9:10 PM CT · Dodger Stadium · Final SD 7 – LAD 12
← MLB / Jul 2

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SD2400000017100
LAD0224210112170
Team box
SD·LAD
10
hits
17
3
home runs
1
5
walks
6
9
strikeouts
4
163
pitches thrown
178
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Dalton RushingLAD4-4314
Jake CronenworthSD1-5113
Kyle TuckerLAD4-4301
Manny MachadoSD1-3112
Max MuncyLAD2-5102
Jackson MerrillSD1-4111
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Randy VasquezSD3.07410
Wandy Peralta (L)SD1.06402
Roki SasakiLAD3.07623
Will Klein (W)LAD2.01003

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAD +6
SD +6
123456789
largest lead: LAD 6 · SD 6lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SD 39%, LAD 61% · Updated Jul 2

Expected margin
LAD by 1.5
Expected score
LAD 5.0 – 3.5 SD
Expected total
8.6
PadresThe matchupDodgers
+156Our fair odds−156
3.5Expected runs5.0
+0.01Power rating+0.40
3.9Runs / game5.3
4.3Allowed / game3.5
7.3Hits / game8.9
1.05Home runs / game1.37
3.3Walks drawn / game4.1
43−42Season record56−31
4−6Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SD chance · LAD chance
Our model fair39.1%60.9%
Kalshi37.6%67.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 9:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SDSan Diego Padres+15639%+16637.6%———
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−15661%−20867.6%———
SpreadLAD by 1.5
SDSan Diego Padres+1.5our margin————
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−1.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.6
Over8.6our total————
Under8.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Dodgers by 1.5 expected
San Diego Padres by 15 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 14 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 13 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 12 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 11 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 10 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 9 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 8 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 7 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 6 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 5 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 4 runs: 4%San Diego Padres by 3 runs: 5%San Diego Padres by 2 runs: 8%San Diego Padres by 1 run: 16%Los Angeles Dodgers by 1 run: 12%Los Angeles Dodgers by 2 runs: 11%Los Angeles Dodgers by 3 runs: 9%Los Angeles Dodgers by 4 runs: 7%Los Angeles Dodgers by 5 runs: 6%Los Angeles Dodgers by 6 runs: 4%Los Angeles Dodgers by 7 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 8 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 9 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 11 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 12 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 15 runs: <1%
← SD wins byLAD wins by →
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 2 or more49%
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 3 or more38%
San Diego Padres wins by 2 or more23%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.6 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.566%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SDRandy Vasquez SP · last 3 starts: 12.1 IP, 8.76 ERA, 9 Kstarted
LADRoki Sasaki SP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 8.36 ERA, 12 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SD·LAD
Jul 1 at CHC
last game
Jul 1 at ATH
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 85+ games
SD·LAD
+0.01
rating (0 = average)
+0.40
3.9
runs / game
5.3
4.3
runs allowed / game
3.5
43−42
season record
56−31
23−21
home record
26−14
20−21
away record
30−17
L5
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
7−3
7.3
hits / game
8.9
1.05
home runs / game
1.37
3.3
walks drawn / game
4.1
8.3
batter strikeouts / game
7.9
8.3
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.8
0.34
errors / game
0.30

Rating Trend

SD · LAD · 99 days
San Diego PadresLos Angeles Dodgers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAD 6−4
Jun 28at SDLAD 4 − 2
Jun 27at SDLAD 15 − 3
Jun 26at SDSD 7 − 1
May 20at SDLAD 4 − 0
May 19at SDLAD 5 − 4
May 18at SDSD 1 − 0
Aug 24, 2025at SDLAD 8 − 2
Aug 23, 2025at SDSD 5 − 1
Aug 22, 2025at SDSD 2 − 1
Aug 17, 2025at LADLAD 5 − 4

SD · Last 10

4−6 · streak L5
Jul 1at CHC3 − 23L
Jun 30at CHC7 − 9L
Jun 29at CHC2 − 3L
Jun 28vs LAD2 − 4L
Jun 27vs LAD3 − 15L
Jun 26vs LAD7 − 1W
Jun 24vs ATL5 − 2W
Jun 23vs ATL7 − 6W
Jun 22vs ATL1 − 0W
Jun 21at TEX3 − 4L

LAD · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Jul 1at ATH1 − 7L
Jun 30at ATH9 − 3W
Jun 29at ATH9 − 4W
Jun 28at SD4 − 2W
Jun 27at SD15 − 3W
Jun 26at SD1 − 7L
Jun 24at MIN4 − 3W
Jun 23at MIN12 − 3W
Jun 22at MIN2 − 1W
Jun 21vs BAL1 − 12L