bayesRatings

Padres at Dodgers

MLB · Friday, Jul 3 · 9:10 PM CT · Dodger Stadium · Final SD 3 – LAD 4
← MLB / Jul 3

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SD100101000381
LAD00000040450
Team box
SD·LAD
8
hits
5
1
home runs
1
3
walks
5
14
strikeouts
5
115
pitches thrown
155
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Teoscar HernandezLAD1-4114
Jackson MerrillSD2-4211
Xander BogaertsSD1-4001
Jake CronenworthSD2-3000
Gavin SheetsSD1-4001
Freddie FreemanLAD1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Michael KingSD6.03225
Adrian Morejon (L)SD1.02120
Shohei OhtaniLAD6.07329
Kyle Hurt (W)LAD1.01011
Tanner Scott (S)LAD1.00003

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAD +3
SD +3
123456789
largest lead: LAD 1 · SD 3lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SD 39%, LAD 61% · Updated Jul 3

Expected margin
LAD by 1.5
Expected score
LAD 5.2 – 3.7 SD
Expected total
8.8
PadresThe matchupDodgers
+159Our fair odds−159
3.7Expected runs5.2
+0.01Power rating+0.41
4.0Runs / game5.4
4.4Allowed / game3.5
7.4Hits / game9.0
1.07Home runs / game1.36
3.3Walks drawn / game4.1
43−43Season record57−31
4−6Last 108−2

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SD chance · LAD chance
Our model fair38.6%61.4%
Kalshi30.4%73.4%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 9:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SDSan Diego Padres+15939%+22930.4%———
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−15961%−27673.4%———
SpreadLAD by 1.5
SDSan Diego Padres+1.5our margin————
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−1.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.8
Over8.8our total————
Under8.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Dodgers by 1.5 expected
San Diego Padres by 15 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 14 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 13 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 12 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 11 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 10 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 9 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 8 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 7 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 6 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 5 runs: 3%San Diego Padres by 4 runs: 4%San Diego Padres by 3 runs: 5%San Diego Padres by 2 runs: 8%San Diego Padres by 1 run: 15%Los Angeles Dodgers by 1 run: 13%Los Angeles Dodgers by 2 runs: 11%Los Angeles Dodgers by 3 runs: 9%Los Angeles Dodgers by 4 runs: 7%Los Angeles Dodgers by 5 runs: 6%Los Angeles Dodgers by 6 runs: 4%Los Angeles Dodgers by 7 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 8 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 9 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 11 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 12 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 15 runs: <1%
← SD wins byLAD wins by →
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 2 or more49%
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 3 or more38%
San Diego Padres wins by 2 or more24%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.8 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.568%
Total over 8.548%
Total over 10.531%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SDMichael King SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 4.02 ERA, 11 Kstarted
LADShohei Ohtani DH · last 3 starts: 18.2 IP, 4.34 ERA, 19 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SD·LAD
Jul 2 at LAD
last game
Jul 2 vs SD
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
7
5th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 86+ games
SD·LAD
+0.01
rating (0 = average)
+0.41
4.0
runs / game
5.4
4.4
runs allowed / game
3.5
43−43
season record
57−31
23−21
home record
27−14
20−22
away record
30−17
L6
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
8−2
7.4
hits / game
9.0
1.07
home runs / game
1.36
3.3
walks drawn / game
4.1
8.3
batter strikeouts / game
7.9
8.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.8
0.34
errors / game
0.30

Rating Trend

SD · LAD · 100 days
San Diego PadresLos Angeles Dodgers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAD 6−4
Jul 2at LADLAD 12 − 7
Jun 28at SDLAD 4 − 2
Jun 27at SDLAD 15 − 3
Jun 26at SDSD 7 − 1
May 20at SDLAD 4 − 0
May 19at SDLAD 5 − 4
May 18at SDSD 1 − 0
Aug 24, 2025at SDLAD 8 − 2
Aug 23, 2025at SDSD 5 − 1
Aug 22, 2025at SDSD 2 − 1

SD · Last 10

4−6 · streak L6
Jul 2at LAD7 − 12L
Jul 1at CHC3 − 23L
Jun 30at CHC7 − 9L
Jun 29at CHC2 − 3L
Jun 28vs LAD2 − 4L
Jun 27vs LAD3 − 15L
Jun 26vs LAD7 − 1W
Jun 24vs ATL5 − 2W
Jun 23vs ATL7 − 6W
Jun 22vs ATL1 − 0W

LAD · Last 10

8−2 · streak W1
Jul 2vs SD12 − 7W
Jul 1at ATH1 − 7L
Jun 30at ATH9 − 3W
Jun 29at ATH9 − 4W
Jun 28at SD4 − 2W
Jun 27at SD15 − 3W
Jun 26at SD1 − 7L
Jun 24at MIN4 − 3W
Jun 23at MIN12 − 3W
Jun 22at MIN2 − 1W