bayesRatings

Diamondbacks at Padres

MLB · Tuesday, Jul 7 · 8:40 PM CT · Petco Park · Final ARI 1 – SD 4
← MLB / Jul 7

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ARI100000000151
SD40000000461
Team box
ARI·SD
5
hits
6
0
home runs
1
3
walks
3
8
strikeouts
5
119
pitches thrown
141
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jake CronenworthSD1-3113
Gabriel MorenoARI2-4000
Luis CampusanoSD2-3000
Jackson MerrillSD1-4101
Max KeplerARI0-1001
James McCannARI1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Zac Gallen (L)ARI6.06435
German Marquez (W)SD5.03034
Mason Miller (S)SD1.00002

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SD +3
ARI +3
123456789
largest lead: SD 3 · ARI 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ARI 48%, SD 52% · Updated Jul 7

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
SD 4.1 – 4.0 ARI
Expected total
8.1
DiamondbacksThe matchupPadres
+106Our fair odds−106
4.0Expected runs4.1
−0.01Power rating−0.00
4.3Runs / game3.9
4.5Allowed / game4.4
7.9Hits / game7.4
0.91Home runs / game1.04
3.1Walks drawn / game3.3
45−45Season record44−46
4−6Last 101−9

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ARI chance · SD chance
Our model fair48.5%51.5%
Kalshi49.7%54.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ARIArizona Diamondbacks+10648%+10149.7%———
SDSan Diego Padres−10652%−12154.7%———
Spreadabout even
ARIArizona Diamondbacks+0.1our margin————
SDSan Diego Padres−0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.1
Over8.1our total————
Under8.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Arizona Diamondbacks by 12 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 11 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 10 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 9 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 8 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 7 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 6 runs: 3%Arizona Diamondbacks by 5 runs: 4%Arizona Diamondbacks by 4 runs: 5%Arizona Diamondbacks by 3 runs: 7%Arizona Diamondbacks by 2 runs: 10%Arizona Diamondbacks by 1 run: 14%San Diego Padres by 1 run: 16%San Diego Padres by 2 runs: 10%San Diego Padres by 3 runs: 7%San Diego Padres by 4 runs: 6%San Diego Padres by 5 runs: 4%San Diego Padres by 6 runs: 3%San Diego Padres by 7 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 8 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 9 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 10 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 11 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 12 runs: <1%
← ARI wins bySD wins by →
San Diego Padres wins by 2 or more36%
San Diego Padres wins by 3 or more25%
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.1 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.562%
Total over 8.542%
Total over 10.525%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ARIZac Gallen SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 11.02 ERA, 6 Kstarted
SDGerman Marquez SP · last 3 starts: 16.2 IP, 5.94 ERA, 9 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ARI·SD
Jul 6 at SD
last game
Jul 6 vs ARI
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 90+ games
ARI·SD
−0.01
rating (0 = average)
−0.00
4.3
runs / game
3.9
4.5
runs allowed / game
4.4
45−45
season record
44−46
27−20
home record
23−22
18−25
away record
21−24
W1
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
1−9
7.9
hits / game
7.4
0.91
home runs / game
1.04
3.1
walks drawn / game
3.3
7.2
batter strikeouts / game
8.5
6.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.2
0.37
errors / game
0.36

Rating Trend

ARI · SD · 104 days
Arizona DiamondbacksSan Diego Padres
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SD 7−3
Jul 6at SDARI 8 − 0
Apr 26at ARIARI 12 − 7
Apr 25at ARISD 6 − 4
Sep 28, 2025at SDSD 12 − 4
Sep 27, 2025at SDSD 5 − 1
Sep 26, 2025at SDSD 7 − 4
Aug 6, 2025at ARISD 3 − 2
Aug 5, 2025at ARISD 10 − 5
Aug 4, 2025at ARIARI 6 − 2
Jul 10, 2025at SDSD 4 − 3

ARI · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Jul 6at SD8 − 0W
Jul 5vs MIL2 − 3L
Jul 4vs MIL4 − 3W
Jul 3vs MIL4 − 7L
Jul 1vs SF4 − 6L
Jun 30vs SF8 − 2W
Jun 29vs SF5 − 4W
Jun 28at TB1 − 5L
Jun 27at TB2 − 4L
Jun 26at TB1 − 6L

SD · Last 10

1−9 · streak L1
Jul 6vs ARI0 − 8L
Jul 5at LAD5 − 2W
Jul 4at LAD0 − 3L
Jul 3at LAD3 − 4L
Jul 2at LAD7 − 12L
Jul 1at CHC3 − 23L
Jun 30at CHC7 − 9L
Jun 29at CHC2 − 3L
Jun 28vs LAD2 − 4L
Jun 27vs LAD3 − 15L