bayesRatings

Royals at Orioles

MLB · Sunday, Jul 12 · 12:35 PM CT · Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Final KC 2 – BAL 8
← MLB / Jul 12

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
KC0110000002101
BAL020005108121
Team box
KC·BAL
10
hits
12
0
home runs
2
0
walks
4
11
strikeouts
10
172
pitches thrown
158
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Leody TaverasBAL2-4213
Gunnar HendersonBAL3-5101
Lane ThomasKC3-4001
Samuel BasalloBAL1-5111
Pete AlonsoBAL1-5001
Jeremiah JacksonBAL1-2101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Seth LugoKC4.04226
Matt Strahm (L)KC0.14511
Shane BazBAL4.28209
Grant Wolfram (W)BAL0.20001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BAL +6
KC +6
123456789
largest lead: BAL 6 · KC 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was KC 47%, BAL 53% · Updated Jul 12

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
BAL 4.8 – 4.5 KC
Expected total
9.3
RoyalsThe matchupOrioles
+114Our fair odds−114
4.5Expected runs4.8
−0.14Power rating−0.06
4.3Runs / game4.6
5.1Allowed / game4.8
8.3Hits / game7.9
1.01Home runs / game1.20
3.2Walks drawn / game3.8
38−58Season record45−51
3−7Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
KC chance · BAL chance
Our model fair46.7%53.3%
Kalshi43.7%60.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:35 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
KCKansas City Royals+11447%+12943.7%———
BALBaltimore Orioles−11453%−15460.7%———
Spreadabout even
KCKansas City Royals+0.3our margin————
BALBaltimore Orioles−0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.3
Over9.3our total————
Under9.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Kansas City Royals by 13 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 12 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 11 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 10 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 9 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 8 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 7 runs: 2%Kansas City Royals by 6 runs: 3%Kansas City Royals by 5 runs: 4%Kansas City Royals by 4 runs: 5%Kansas City Royals by 3 runs: 7%Kansas City Royals by 2 runs: 9%Kansas City Royals by 1 run: 12%Baltimore Orioles by 1 run: 15%Baltimore Orioles by 2 runs: 10%Baltimore Orioles by 3 runs: 7%Baltimore Orioles by 4 runs: 6%Baltimore Orioles by 5 runs: 5%Baltimore Orioles by 6 runs: 3%Baltimore Orioles by 7 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 8 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 9 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 10 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 11 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 12 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 13 runs: <1%
← KC wins byBAL wins by →
Baltimore Orioles wins by 2 or more39%
Baltimore Orioles wins by 3 or more29%
Kansas City Royals wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.3 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.560%
Total over 9.542%
Total over 11.527%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
KCSeth Lugo SP · last 3 starts: 15.1 IP, 9.39 ERA, 14 Kstarted
BALShane Baz SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 5.00 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
KC·BAL
Jul 11 at BAL
last game
Jul 11 vs KC
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
6th straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 96+ games
KC·BAL
−0.14
rating (0 = average)
−0.06
4.3
runs / game
4.6
5.1
runs allowed / game
4.8
38−58
season record
45−51
21−26
home record
27−25
17−32
away record
18−26
L4
streak
W3
3−7
last 10
6−4
8.3
hits / game
7.9
1.01
home runs / game
1.20
3.2
walks drawn / game
3.8
8.0
batter strikeouts / game
9.1
7.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.9
0.46
errors / game
0.60

Rating Trend

KC · BAL · 109 days
Kansas City RoyalsBaltimore Orioles
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BAL 6−4
Jul 11at BALBAL 6 − 1
Jul 10at BALBAL 5 − 3
Apr 22at KCBAL 8 − 6
Apr 21at KCKC 6 − 5
Apr 20at KCBAL 7 − 5
May 4, 2025at BALKC 11 − 6
May 3, 2025at BALKC 4 − 0
May 2, 2025at BALBAL 3 − 0
Apr 6, 2025at KCKC 4 − 1
Apr 5, 2025at KCBAL 8 − 1

KC · Last 10

3−7 · streak L4
Jul 11at BAL1 − 6L
Jul 10at BAL3 − 5L
Jul 9at NYM3 − 7L
Jul 8at NYM2 − 6L
Jul 7at NYM16 − 12W
Jul 6vs PHI15 − 1W
Jul 5vs PHI5 − 2W
Jul 4vs PHI1 − 6L
Jul 2vs TB2 − 5L
Jul 1vs TB0 − 4L

BAL · Last 10

6−4 · streak W3
Jul 11vs KC6 − 1W
Jul 10vs KC5 − 3W
Jul 9vs CHC3 − 2W
Jul 8vs CHC7 − 9L
Jul 7vs CHC2 − 5L
Jul 5at CIN2 − 3L
Jul 4at CIN8 − 5W
Jul 3at CIN3 − 0W
Jul 1vs CHW6 − 1W
Jun 30vs CHW3 − 9L