bayesRatings

Orioles at Reds

MLB · Saturday, Jul 4 · 6:10 PM CT · Great American Ball Park · Final BAL 8 – CIN 5
← MLB / Jul 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
BAL3005000008100
CIN1300001005110
Team box
BAL·CIN
10
hits
11
1
home runs
0
7
walks
6
9
strikeouts
6
156
pitches thrown
165
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Samuel BasalloBAL1-4113
Pete AlonsoBAL3-3101
Adley RutschmanBAL2-5102
Eugenio SuarezCIN2-5002
Jose TrevinoCIN3-4101
Blaze AlexanderBAL1-4102
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Brandon Young (W)BAL5.08435
Tyler Wells (S)BAL1.01010
Hunter Greene (L)CIN3.17847

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CIN +4
BAL +4
123456789
largest lead: CIN 1 · BAL 4lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BAL 48%, CIN 52% · Updated Jul 4

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
CIN 4.5 – 4.4 BAL
Expected total
8.9
OriolesThe matchupReds
+108Our fair odds−108
4.4Expected runs4.5
−0.08Power rating−0.06
4.6Runs / game4.2
4.9Allowed / game4.9
7.9Hits / game7.6
1.16Home runs / game1.22
3.8Walks drawn / game3.7
41−48Season record40−47
4−6Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BAL chance · CIN chance
Our model fair48.0%52.0%
Kalshi48.7%55.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BALBaltimore Orioles+10848%+10548.7%———
CINCincinnati Reds−10852%−12655.7%———
Spreadabout even
BALBaltimore Orioles+0.1our margin————
CINCincinnati Reds−0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.9
Over8.9our total————
Under8.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Baltimore Orioles by 13 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 12 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 11 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 10 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 9 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 8 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 7 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 6 runs: 3%Baltimore Orioles by 5 runs: 4%Baltimore Orioles by 4 runs: 5%Baltimore Orioles by 3 runs: 7%Baltimore Orioles by 2 runs: 10%Baltimore Orioles by 1 run: 13%Cincinnati Reds by 1 run: 15%Cincinnati Reds by 2 runs: 10%Cincinnati Reds by 3 runs: 7%Cincinnati Reds by 4 runs: 6%Cincinnati Reds by 5 runs: 4%Cincinnati Reds by 6 runs: 3%Cincinnati Reds by 7 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 8 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 9 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 10 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 11 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 12 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 13 runs: <1%
← BAL wins byCIN wins by →
Cincinnati Reds wins by 2 or more37%
Cincinnati Reds wins by 3 or more27%
Baltimore Orioles wins by 2 or more35%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.9 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.569%
Total over 8.549%
Total over 10.532%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
BALBrandon Young SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 3.38 ERA, 15 Kstarted
CINHunter Greene SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 3.50 ERA, 20 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BAL·CIN
Jul 3 at CIN
last game
Jul 3 vs BAL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 87+ games
BAL·CIN
−0.08
rating (0 = average)
−0.06
4.6
runs / game
4.2
4.9
runs allowed / game
4.9
41−48
season record
40−47
24−23
home record
19−23
17−25
away record
21−24
W2
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
3−7
7.9
hits / game
7.6
1.16
home runs / game
1.22
3.8
walks drawn / game
3.7
9.2
batter strikeouts / game
9.5
8.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.0
0.61
errors / game
0.56

Rating Trend

BAL · CIN · 101 days
Baltimore OriolesCincinnati Reds
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CIN 4−6
Jul 3at CINBAL 3 − 0
Apr 20, 2025at BALCIN 24 − 2
Apr 19, 2025at BALBAL 9 − 5
Apr 18, 2025at BALCIN 8 − 3
May 5, 2024at CINBAL 11 − 1
May 4, 2024at CINBAL 2 − 1
May 3, 2024at CINBAL 3 − 0
Jun 28, 2023at BALCIN 11 − 7
Jun 27, 2023at BALCIN 3 − 1
Jun 26, 2023at BALBAL 10 − 3

BAL · Last 10

4−6 · streak W2
Jul 3at CIN3 − 0W
Jul 1vs CHW6 − 1W
Jun 30vs CHW3 − 9L
Jun 29vs CHW2 − 8L
Jun 28vs WSH4 − 6L
Jun 27vs WSH3 − 4L
Jun 26vs WSH3 − 1W
Jun 24at LAA6 − 7L
Jun 23at LAA1 − 5L
Jun 22at LAA6 − 1W

CIN · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Jul 3vs BAL0 − 3L
Jul 2at MIL7 − 2W
Jul 1at MIL2 − 4L
Jun 30at MIL2 − 7L
Jun 29at MIL3 − 5L
Jun 28at PIT4 − 9L
Jun 27at PIT9 − 7W
Jun 26at PIT6 − 4W
Jun 24vs MIL5 − 6L
Jun 23vs MIL0 − 2L