bayesRatings

Orioles at Reds

MLB · Sunday, Jul 5 · 12:05 PM CT · Great American Ball Park · Final BAL 2 – CIN 3
← MLB / Jul 5

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
BAL000001001270
CIN00002001350
Team box
BAL·CIN
7
hits
5
0
home runs
1
4
walks
1
7
strikeouts
5
112
pitches thrown
157
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Spencer SteerCIN1-3112
Blaze AlexanderBAL3-4000
Taylor WardBAL2-4100
Coby MayoBAL1-3001
Tyler StephensonCIN2-3000
Sal StewartCIN1-4001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Kyle Bradish (L)BAL7.25315
Nick Lodolo (W)CIN6.06124
Emilio Pagan (S)CIN1.01121

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CIN +3
BAL +3
123456789
largest lead: CIN 2 · BAL 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BAL 49%, CIN 51% · Updated Jul 5

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
CIN 4.5 – 4.5 BAL
Expected total
9.0
OriolesThe matchupReds
+106Our fair odds−106
4.5Expected runs4.5
−0.07Power rating−0.07
4.6Runs / game4.2
4.9Allowed / game4.9
7.9Hits / game7.7
1.16Home runs / game1.20
3.8Walks drawn / game3.8
42−48Season record40−48
4−6Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BAL chance · CIN chance
Our model fair48.5%51.5%
Kalshi54.7%49.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BALBaltimore Orioles+10649%−12154.7%———
CINCincinnati Reds−10651%+10149.7%———
Spreadabout even
BALBaltimore OriolesPKour margin————
CINCincinnati RedsPKour margin————
Totalwe expect 9.0
Over9.0our total————
Under9.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Baltimore Orioles by 13 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 12 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 11 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 10 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 9 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 8 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 7 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 6 runs: 3%Baltimore Orioles by 5 runs: 4%Baltimore Orioles by 4 runs: 6%Baltimore Orioles by 3 runs: 7%Baltimore Orioles by 2 runs: 10%Baltimore Orioles by 1 run: 12%Cincinnati Reds by 1 run: 16%Cincinnati Reds by 2 runs: 10%Cincinnati Reds by 3 runs: 7%Cincinnati Reds by 4 runs: 5%Cincinnati Reds by 5 runs: 4%Cincinnati Reds by 6 runs: 3%Cincinnati Reds by 7 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 8 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 9 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 10 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 11 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 12 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 13 runs: <1%
← BAL wins byCIN wins by →
Cincinnati Reds wins by 2 or more36%
Cincinnati Reds wins by 3 or more26%
Baltimore Orioles wins by 2 or more36%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.558%
Total over 9.540%
Total over 11.525%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
BALKyle Bradish SP · last 3 starts: 19.2 IP, 1.83 ERA, 23 Kstarted
CINNick Lodolo SP · last 3 starts: 13.2 IP, 4.61 ERA, 12 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BAL·CIN
Jul 4 at CIN
last game
Jul 4 vs BAL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 88+ games
BAL·CIN
−0.07
rating (0 = average)
−0.07
4.6
runs / game
4.2
4.9
runs allowed / game
4.9
42−48
season record
40−48
24−23
home record
19−24
18−25
away record
21−24
W3
streak
L2
4−6
last 10
3−7
7.9
hits / game
7.7
1.16
home runs / game
1.20
3.8
walks drawn / game
3.8
9.2
batter strikeouts / game
9.4
8.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.0
0.60
errors / game
0.56

Rating Trend

BAL · CIN · 102 days
Baltimore OriolesCincinnati Reds
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CIN 4−6
Jul 4at CINBAL 8 − 5
Jul 3at CINBAL 3 − 0
Apr 20, 2025at BALCIN 24 − 2
Apr 19, 2025at BALBAL 9 − 5
Apr 18, 2025at BALCIN 8 − 3
May 5, 2024at CINBAL 11 − 1
May 4, 2024at CINBAL 2 − 1
May 3, 2024at CINBAL 3 − 0
Jun 28, 2023at BALCIN 11 − 7
Jun 27, 2023at BALCIN 3 − 1

BAL · Last 10

4−6 · streak W3
Jul 4at CIN8 − 5W
Jul 3at CIN3 − 0W
Jul 1vs CHW6 − 1W
Jun 30vs CHW3 − 9L
Jun 29vs CHW2 − 8L
Jun 28vs WSH4 − 6L
Jun 27vs WSH3 − 4L
Jun 26vs WSH3 − 1W
Jun 24at LAA6 − 7L
Jun 23at LAA1 − 5L

CIN · Last 10

3−7 · streak L2
Jul 4vs BAL5 − 8L
Jul 3vs BAL0 − 3L
Jul 2at MIL7 − 2W
Jul 1at MIL2 − 4L
Jun 30at MIL2 − 7L
Jun 29at MIL3 − 5L
Jun 28at PIT4 − 9L
Jun 27at PIT9 − 7W
Jun 26at PIT6 − 4W
Jun 24vs MIL5 − 6L