bayesRatings

Royals at Mets

MLB · Wednesday, Jul 8 · 6:10 PM CT · Citi Field · Final KC 2 – NYM 6
← MLB / Jul 8

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
KC000001001280
NYM10000005690
Team box
KC·NYM
8
hits
9
0
home runs
1
3
walks
5
7
strikeouts
6
166
pitches thrown
162
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
A.J. EwingNYM2-5111
Brett BatyNYM1-4102
Salvador PerezKC1-4001
Carter JensenKC1-4001
Francisco AlvarezNYM1-3001
Carson BengeNYM2-3100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Steven CruzKC1.01102
Alex Lange (L)KC0.23510
Christian ScottNYM5.03015
Brooks Raley (W)NYM1.01000

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYM +5
KC +5
123456789
largest lead: NYM 5 · KC 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was KC 48%, NYM 52% · Updated Jul 8

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
NYM 4.6 – 4.5 KC
Expected total
9.2
RoyalsThe matchupMets
+107Our fair odds−107
4.5Expected runs4.6
−0.10Power rating−0.09
4.3Runs / game4.1
5.1Allowed / game4.8
8.3Hits / game7.9
1.01Home runs / game1.16
3.3Walks drawn / game3.1
38−54Season record38−54
4−6Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
KC chance · NYM chance
Our model fair48.3%51.7%
Kalshi38.6%66.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
KCKansas City Royals+10748%+15938.6%———
NYMNew York Mets−10752%−19966.6%———
Spreadabout even
KCKansas City Royals+0.1our margin————
NYMNew York Mets−0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.2
Over9.2our total————
Under9.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Kansas City Royals by 13 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 12 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 11 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 10 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 9 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 8 runs: 2%Kansas City Royals by 7 runs: 2%Kansas City Royals by 6 runs: 3%Kansas City Royals by 5 runs: 4%Kansas City Royals by 4 runs: 5%Kansas City Royals by 3 runs: 7%Kansas City Royals by 2 runs: 9%Kansas City Royals by 1 run: 13%New York Mets by 1 run: 15%New York Mets by 2 runs: 10%New York Mets by 3 runs: 7%New York Mets by 4 runs: 6%New York Mets by 5 runs: 4%New York Mets by 6 runs: 3%New York Mets by 7 runs: 2%New York Mets by 8 runs: 2%New York Mets by 9 runs: 1%New York Mets by 10 runs: 1%New York Mets by 11 runs: 1%New York Mets by 12 runs: <1%New York Mets by 13 runs: <1%
← KC wins byNYM wins by →
New York Mets wins by 2 or more37%
New York Mets wins by 3 or more27%
Kansas City Royals wins by 2 or more36%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.2 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.559%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.527%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
KCSteven Cruz RP · last 3 starts: 3.1 IP, 2.70 ERA, 4 Kstarted
NYMChristian Scott SP · last 3 starts: 13.0 IP, 6.23 ERA, 19 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
KC·NYM
Jul 7 at NYM
last game
Jul 7 vs KC
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 92+ games
KC·NYM
−0.10
rating (0 = average)
−0.09
4.3
runs / game
4.1
5.1
runs allowed / game
4.8
38−54
season record
38−54
21−26
home record
19−25
17−28
away record
19−29
W3
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
4−6
8.3
hits / game
7.9
1.01
home runs / game
1.16
3.3
walks drawn / game
3.1
8.0
batter strikeouts / game
8.2
7.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.2
0.47
errors / game
0.66

Rating Trend

KC · NYM · 105 days
Kansas City RoyalsNew York Mets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYM 4−6
Jul 7at NYMKC 16 − 12
Jul 13, 2025at KCKC 3 − 2
Jul 12, 2025at KCNYM 3 − 1
Jul 11, 2025at KCNYM 8 − 3
Apr 14, 2024at NYMNYM 2 − 1
Apr 13, 2024at NYMKC 11 − 7
Apr 12, 2024at NYMNYM 6 − 1
Aug 3, 2023at KCKC 9 − 2
Aug 2, 2023at KCKC 4 − 0
Aug 1, 2023at KCKC 7 − 6

KC · Last 10

4−6 · streak W3
Jul 7at NYM16 − 12W
Jul 6vs PHI15 − 1W
Jul 5vs PHI5 − 2W
Jul 4vs PHI1 − 6L
Jul 2vs TB2 − 5L
Jul 1vs TB0 − 4L
Jun 30vs TB4 − 10L
Jun 28at CHW5 − 4W
Jun 27at CHW1 − 2L
Jun 26at CHW1 − 22L

NYM · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Jul 7vs KC12 − 16L
Jul 6at ATL7 − 6W
Jul 5at ATL10 − 9W
Jul 4at ATL3 − 14L
Jul 3at ATL3 − 5L
Jul 1at TOR3 − 9L
Jun 30at TOR3 − 0W
Jun 29at TOR1 − 2L
Jun 28vs PHI4 − 5L
Jun 27vs PHI6 − 2W