bayesRatings

Royals at Mets

MLB · Tuesday, Jul 7 · 6:10 PM CT · Citi Field · Final KC 16 – NYM 12
← MLB / Jul 7

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
KC02025070016193
NYM32040021012130
Team box
KC·NYM
19
hits
13
2
home runs
2
11
walks
5
11
strikeouts
4
175
pitches thrown
203
3
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Tyler TolbertKC5-6412
A.J. EwingNYM4-4413
Lane ThomasKC3-4104
Nick LoftinKC3-5212
Juan SotoNYM1-5113
Salvador PerezKC2-5102
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Seth LugoKC4.19624
Beck Way (W)KC0.20000
Cionel PerezNYM1.02001
Matt Seelinger (L)NYM2.05742

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYM +6
KC +6
123456789
largest lead: NYM 5 · KC 6lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was KC 48%, NYM 52% · Updated Jul 7

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
NYM 4.6 – 4.4 KC
Expected total
9.0
RoyalsThe matchupMets
+109Our fair odds−109
4.4Expected runs4.6
−0.11Power rating−0.08
4.2Runs / game4.1
5.0Allowed / game4.7
8.2Hits / game7.8
1.00Home runs / game1.15
3.2Walks drawn / game3.0
37−54Season record38−53
3−7Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
KC chance · NYM chance
Our model fair47.9%52.1%
Kalshi45.7%58.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
KCKansas City Royals+10948%+11945.7%———
NYMNew York Mets−10952%−14258.7%———
Spreadabout even
KCKansas City Royals+0.2our margin————
NYMNew York Mets−0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.0
Over9.0our total————
Under9.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Kansas City Royals by 13 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 12 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 11 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 10 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 9 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 8 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 7 runs: 2%Kansas City Royals by 6 runs: 3%Kansas City Royals by 5 runs: 4%Kansas City Royals by 4 runs: 5%Kansas City Royals by 3 runs: 7%Kansas City Royals by 2 runs: 9%Kansas City Royals by 1 run: 13%New York Mets by 1 run: 14%New York Mets by 2 runs: 10%New York Mets by 3 runs: 7%New York Mets by 4 runs: 6%New York Mets by 5 runs: 4%New York Mets by 6 runs: 3%New York Mets by 7 runs: 2%New York Mets by 8 runs: 2%New York Mets by 9 runs: 1%New York Mets by 10 runs: 1%New York Mets by 11 runs: 1%New York Mets by 12 runs: <1%New York Mets by 13 runs: <1%
← KC wins byNYM wins by →
New York Mets wins by 2 or more38%
New York Mets wins by 3 or more28%
Kansas City Royals wins by 2 or more35%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.558%
Total over 9.540%
Total over 11.525%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
KCSeth Lugo SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 5.82 ERA, 10 Kstarted
NYMCionel Perez RP · last 1 start: 1.0 IP, 0.00 ERA, 2 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
KC·NYM
Jul 6 vs PHI
last game
Jul 6 at ATL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 91+ games
KC·NYM
−0.11
rating (0 = average)
−0.08
4.2
runs / game
4.1
5.0
runs allowed / game
4.7
37−54
season record
38−53
21−26
home record
19−24
16−28
away record
19−29
W2
streak
W2
3−7
last 10
4−6
8.2
hits / game
7.8
1.00
home runs / game
1.15
3.2
walks drawn / game
3.0
8.0
batter strikeouts / game
8.3
7.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.2
0.44
errors / game
0.67

Rating Trend

KC · NYM · 104 days
Kansas City RoyalsNew York Mets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · NYM 4−5
Jul 13, 2025at KCKC 3 − 2
Jul 12, 2025at KCNYM 3 − 1
Jul 11, 2025at KCNYM 8 − 3
Apr 14, 2024at NYMNYM 2 − 1
Apr 13, 2024at NYMKC 11 − 7
Apr 12, 2024at NYMNYM 6 − 1
Aug 3, 2023at KCKC 9 − 2
Aug 2, 2023at KCKC 4 − 0
Aug 1, 2023at KCKC 7 − 6

KC · Last 10

3−7 · streak W2
Jul 6vs PHI15 − 1W
Jul 5vs PHI5 − 2W
Jul 4vs PHI1 − 6L
Jul 2vs TB2 − 5L
Jul 1vs TB0 − 4L
Jun 30vs TB4 − 10L
Jun 28at CHW5 − 4W
Jun 27at CHW1 − 2L
Jun 26at CHW1 − 22L
Jun 25at TB2 − 13L

NYM · Last 10

4−6 · streak W2
Jul 6at ATL7 − 6W
Jul 5at ATL10 − 9W
Jul 4at ATL3 − 14L
Jul 3at ATL3 − 5L
Jul 1at TOR3 − 9L
Jun 30at TOR3 − 0W
Jun 29at TOR1 − 2L
Jun 28vs PHI4 − 5L
Jun 27vs PHI6 − 2W
Jun 26vs PHI1 − 2L