bayesRatings

Phillies at Royals

MLB · Sunday, Jul 5 · 2:00 PM CT · Kauffman Stadium · Final PHI 2 – KC 5
← MLB / Jul 5

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
PHI000010100250
KC20001002581
Team box
PHI·KC
5
hits
8
0
home runs
0
2
walks
2
7
strikeouts
8
124
pitches thrown
128
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Salvador PerezKC1-4002
Lane ThomasKC1-3201
Bobby Witt Jr.KC2-3200
Isaac CollinsKC2-3100
Michael MasseyKC1-3001
Bryson StottPHI2-4200
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Aaron Nola (L)PHI7.07307
Luinder Avila (W)KC5.03114
Alex Lange (S)KC1.00000

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
KC +3
PHI +3
123456789
largest lead: KC 3 · PHI 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PHI 56%, KC 44% · Updated Jul 5

Expected margin
PHI by 0.8
Expected score
PHI 4.8 – 3.9 KC
Expected total
8.7
PhilliesThe matchupRoyals
−125Our fair odds+125
4.8Expected runs3.9
+0.14Power rating−0.15
4.5Runs / game4.1
4.4Allowed / game5.1
8.0Hits / game8.1
1.35Home runs / game0.98
2.9Walks drawn / game3.2
50−39Season record35−54
7−3Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PHI chance · KC chance
Our model fair55.6%44.4%
Kalshi57.7%46.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 2:00 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−12556%−13757.7%———
KCKansas City Royals+12544%+11446.7%———
SpreadPHI by 0.8
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−0.8our margin————
KCKansas City Royals+0.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.7
Over8.7our total————
Under8.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Philadelphia Phillies by 0.8 expected
Philadelphia Phillies by 14 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 13 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 12 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 11 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 10 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 9 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 8 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 7 runs: 3%Philadelphia Phillies by 6 runs: 4%Philadelphia Phillies by 5 runs: 5%Philadelphia Phillies by 4 runs: 6%Philadelphia Phillies by 3 runs: 8%Philadelphia Phillies by 2 runs: 11%Philadelphia Phillies by 1 run: 13%Kansas City Royals by 1 run: 15%Kansas City Royals by 2 runs: 9%Kansas City Royals by 3 runs: 6%Kansas City Royals by 4 runs: 4%Kansas City Royals by 5 runs: 3%Kansas City Royals by 6 runs: 2%Kansas City Royals by 7 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 8 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 9 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 10 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 11 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 12 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 13 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 14 runs: <1%
← PHI wins byKC wins by →
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 2 or more43%
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 3 or more32%
Kansas City Royals wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.7 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.567%
Total over 8.547%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
PHIAaron Nola SP · last 3 starts: 14.1 IP, 6.91 ERA, 16 Kstarted
KCLuinder Avila SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 3.68 ERA, 15 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PHI·KC
Jul 4 at KC
last game
Jul 4 vs PHI
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
5
2nd straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 89+ games
PHI·KC
+0.14
rating (0 = average)
−0.15
4.5
runs / game
4.1
4.4
runs allowed / game
5.1
50−39
season record
35−54
25−21
home record
19−26
25−18
away record
16−28
W1
streak
L4
7−3
last 10
2−8
8.0
hits / game
8.1
1.35
home runs / game
0.98
2.9
walks drawn / game
3.2
8.8
batter strikeouts / game
8.0
9.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.6
0.49
errors / game
0.44

Rating Trend

PHI · KC · 102 days
Philadelphia PhilliesKansas City Royals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · KC 3−7
Jul 4at KCPHI 6 − 1
Sep 14, 2025at PHIKC 10 − 3
Sep 13, 2025at PHIPHI 8 − 6
Sep 12, 2025at PHIPHI 8 − 2
Aug 25, 2024at KCPHI 11 − 3
Aug 24, 2024at KCPHI 11 − 2
Aug 23, 2024at KCKC 7 − 4
Aug 6, 2023at PHIPHI 8 − 4
Aug 5, 2023at PHIPHI 9 − 6
Aug 4, 2023at PHIKC 7 − 5

PHI · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Jul 4at KC6 − 1W
Jul 2vs PIT1 − 6L
Jul 1vs PIT10 − 6W
Jun 30vs PIT8 − 0W
Jun 29vs PIT7 − 11L
Jun 28at NYM5 − 4W
Jun 27at NYM2 − 6L
Jun 26at NYM2 − 1W
Jun 25at WSH10 − 5W
Jun 24at WSH5 − 4W

KC · Last 10

2−8 · streak L4
Jul 4vs PHI1 − 6L
Jul 2vs TB2 − 5L
Jul 1vs TB0 − 4L
Jun 30vs TB4 − 10L
Jun 28at CHW5 − 4W
Jun 27at CHW1 − 2L
Jun 26at CHW1 − 22L
Jun 25at TB2 − 13L
Jun 24at TB3 − 5L
Jun 23at TB12 − 5W