bayesRatings

Phillies at Royals

MLB · Monday, Jul 6 · 1:10 PM CT · Kauffman Stadium · Final PHI 1 – KC 15
← MLB / Jul 6

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
PHI1000000001101
KC6111112215220
Team box
PHI·KC
10
hits
22
0
home runs
4
7
walks
5
13
strikeouts
5
182
pitches thrown
180
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Tyler TolbertKC5-5312
Salvador PerezKC3-4111
Luke MaileKC1-4213
Nick LoftinKC3-5202
Lane ThomasKC2-3111
Starling MarteKC2-5102
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Cristopher Sanchez (L)PHI3.112911
Noah Cameron (W)KC5.06157

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
KC +14
PHI +14
123456789
largest lead: KC 14 · PHI 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PHI 55%, KC 45% · Updated Jul 6

Expected margin
PHI by 0.8
Expected score
PHI 4.7 – 3.9 KC
Expected total
8.6
PhilliesThe matchupRoyals
−122Our fair odds+122
4.7Expected runs3.9
+0.12Power rating−0.13
4.5Runs / game4.1
4.4Allowed / game5.0
8.0Hits / game8.1
1.33Home runs / game0.97
2.9Walks drawn / game3.2
50−40Season record36−54
6−4Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PHI chance · KC chance
Our model fair54.9%45.1%
Kalshi68.5%36.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 1:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−12255%−21868.5%———
KCKansas City Royals+12245%+17336.6%———
SpreadPHI by 0.8
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−0.8our margin————
KCKansas City Royals+0.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.6
Over8.6our total————
Under8.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Philadelphia Phillies by 0.8 expected
Philadelphia Phillies by 14 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 13 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 12 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 11 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 10 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 9 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 8 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 7 runs: 3%Philadelphia Phillies by 6 runs: 4%Philadelphia Phillies by 5 runs: 5%Philadelphia Phillies by 4 runs: 6%Philadelphia Phillies by 3 runs: 8%Philadelphia Phillies by 2 runs: 11%Philadelphia Phillies by 1 run: 12%Kansas City Royals by 1 run: 16%Kansas City Royals by 2 runs: 9%Kansas City Royals by 3 runs: 6%Kansas City Royals by 4 runs: 4%Kansas City Royals by 5 runs: 3%Kansas City Royals by 6 runs: 2%Kansas City Royals by 7 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 8 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 9 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 10 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 11 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 12 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 13 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 14 runs: <1%
← PHI wins byKC wins by →
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 2 or more43%
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 3 or more32%
Kansas City Royals wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.6 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.566%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
PHICristopher Sanchez SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 3.00 ERA, 20 Kstarted
KCNoah Cameron SP · last 3 starts: 13.2 IP, 9.22 ERA, 11 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PHI·KC
Jul 5 at KC
last game
Jul 5 vs PHI
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
5
3rd straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 90+ games
PHI·KC
+0.12
rating (0 = average)
−0.13
4.5
runs / game
4.1
4.4
runs allowed / game
5.0
50−40
season record
36−54
25−21
home record
20−26
25−19
away record
16−28
L1
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
2−8
8.0
hits / game
8.1
1.33
home runs / game
0.97
2.9
walks drawn / game
3.2
8.7
batter strikeouts / game
8.0
9.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.6
0.49
errors / game
0.44

Rating Trend

PHI · KC · 103 days
Philadelphia PhilliesKansas City Royals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · KC 3−7
Jul 5at KCKC 5 − 2
Jul 4at KCPHI 6 − 1
Sep 14, 2025at PHIKC 10 − 3
Sep 13, 2025at PHIPHI 8 − 6
Sep 12, 2025at PHIPHI 8 − 2
Aug 25, 2024at KCPHI 11 − 3
Aug 24, 2024at KCPHI 11 − 2
Aug 23, 2024at KCKC 7 − 4
Aug 6, 2023at PHIPHI 8 − 4
Aug 5, 2023at PHIPHI 9 − 6

PHI · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Jul 5at KC2 − 5L
Jul 4at KC6 − 1W
Jul 2vs PIT1 − 6L
Jul 1vs PIT10 − 6W
Jun 30vs PIT8 − 0W
Jun 29vs PIT7 − 11L
Jun 28at NYM5 − 4W
Jun 27at NYM2 − 6L
Jun 26at NYM2 − 1W
Jun 25at WSH10 − 5W

KC · Last 10

2−8 · streak W1
Jul 5vs PHI5 − 2W
Jul 4vs PHI1 − 6L
Jul 2vs TB2 − 5L
Jul 1vs TB0 − 4L
Jun 30vs TB4 − 10L
Jun 28at CHW5 − 4W
Jun 27at CHW1 − 2L
Jun 26at CHW1 − 22L
Jun 25at TB2 − 13L
Jun 24at TB3 − 5L