bayesRatings

Cubs at Orioles

MLB · Tuesday, Jul 7 · 5:35 PM CT · Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Final CHC 5 – BAL 2
← MLB / Jul 7

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CHC0010201105101
BAL000000200260
Team box
CHC·BAL
10
hits
6
0
home runs
0
3
walks
3
5
strikeouts
12
149
pitches thrown
148
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Adley RutschmanBAL2-4002
Alex BregmanCHC2-5002
Dansby SwansonCHC2-4101
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC2-5001
Miguel AmayaCHC2-3300
Pete AlonsoBAL1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Matthew Boyd (W)CHC6.03027
Trent Thornton (S)CHC1.00001
Shane Baz (L)BAL6.06333

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BAL +4
CHC +4
123456789
largest lead: BAL 0 · CHC 4lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHC 54%, BAL 46% · Updated Jul 7

Expected margin
CHC by 1.0
Expected score
CHC 5.2 – 4.2 BAL
Expected total
9.5
CubsThe matchupOrioles
−116Our fair odds+116
5.2Expected runs4.2
+0.13Power rating−0.07
5.1Runs / game4.6
4.5Allowed / game4.9
8.3Hits / game7.9
1.24Home runs / game1.14
4.4Walks drawn / game3.8
50−40Season record42−49
7−3Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHC chance · BAL chance
Our model fair53.7%46.3%
Kalshi52.7%51.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:35 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHCChicago Cubs−11654%−11252.7%———
BALBaltimore Orioles+11646%−10751.8%———
SpreadCHC by 1.0
CHCChicago Cubs−1our margin————
BALBaltimore Orioles+1our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.5
Over9.5our total————
Under9.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Chicago Cubs by 1.0 expected
Chicago Cubs by 15 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 14 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 13 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 12 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 11 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 10 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 9 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 8 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 7 runs: 3%Chicago Cubs by 6 runs: 4%Chicago Cubs by 5 runs: 5%Chicago Cubs by 4 runs: 7%Chicago Cubs by 3 runs: 8%Chicago Cubs by 2 runs: 10%Chicago Cubs by 1 run: 10%Baltimore Orioles by 1 run: 16%Baltimore Orioles by 2 runs: 8%Baltimore Orioles by 3 runs: 6%Baltimore Orioles by 4 runs: 4%Baltimore Orioles by 5 runs: 3%Baltimore Orioles by 6 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 7 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 8 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 9 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 10 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 11 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 12 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 13 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 14 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 15 runs: <1%
← CHC wins byBAL wins by →
Chicago Cubs wins by 2 or more45%
Chicago Cubs wins by 3 or more35%
Baltimore Orioles wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.5 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.562%
Total over 9.544%
Total over 11.529%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CHCMatthew Boyd SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 2.87 ERA, 11 Kstarted
BALShane Baz SP · last 3 starts: 19.0 IP, 4.74 ERA, 20 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHC·BAL
Jul 5 vs STL
last game
Jul 5 at CIN
1 day
days of rest
1 day
5
games in last 7 days
5
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 90+ games
CHC·BAL
+0.13
rating (0 = average)
−0.07
5.1
runs / game
4.6
4.5
runs allowed / game
4.9
50−40
season record
42−49
27−19
home record
24−23
23−21
away record
18−26
W1
streak
L1
7−3
last 10
4−6
8.3
hits / game
7.9
1.24
home runs / game
1.14
4.4
walks drawn / game
3.8
8.5
batter strikeouts / game
9.1
7.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.9
0.40
errors / game
0.59

Rating Trend

CHC · BAL · 104 days
Chicago CubsBaltimore Orioles
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BAL 2−8
Aug 3, 2025at CHCCHC 5 − 3
Aug 2, 2025at CHCBAL 4 − 3
Aug 1, 2025at CHCCHC 1 − 0
Jul 11, 2024at BALCHC 8 − 0
Jul 10, 2024at BALCHC 4 − 0
Jul 9, 2024at BALCHC 9 − 2
Jun 18, 2023at CHCBAL 6 − 3
Jun 17, 2023at CHCCHC 3 − 2
Jun 16, 2023at CHCCHC 10 − 3
Aug 18, 2022at BALCHC 3 − 2

CHC · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Jul 5vs STL6 − 4W
Jul 4vs STL0 − 3L
Jul 3vs STL1 − 17L
Jul 1vs SD23 − 3W
Jun 30vs SD9 − 7W
Jun 29vs SD3 − 2W
Jun 28at MIL4 − 3W
Jun 27at MIL8 − 2W
Jun 26at MIL2 − 6L
Jun 25at NYM4 − 3W

BAL · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Jul 5at CIN2 − 3L
Jul 4at CIN8 − 5W
Jul 3at CIN3 − 0W
Jul 1vs CHW6 − 1W
Jun 30vs CHW3 − 9L
Jun 29vs CHW2 − 8L
Jun 28vs WSH4 − 6L
Jun 27vs WSH3 − 4L
Jun 26vs WSH3 − 1W
Jun 24at LAA6 − 7L