bayesRatings

Cubs at Orioles

MLB · Thursday, Jul 9 · 12:30 PM CT · Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Final CHC 2 – BAL 3
← MLB / Jul 9

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CHC000001010290
BAL01000002332
Team box
CHC·BAL
9
hits
3
1
home runs
1
2
walks
7
5
strikeouts
5
133
pitches thrown
136
0
errors
2
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Seiya SuzukiCHC3-4112
Tyler O'NeillBAL1-3111
Jeremiah JacksonBAL1-1002
Ian HappCHC2-4000
Taylor WardBAL1-3000
Dansby SwansonCHC1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
David PetersonCHC5.02142
Tyler Ferguson (L)CHC0.10201
Trevor RogersBAL6.05124
Tyler Wells (W)BAL1.02101
Andrew Kittredge (S)BAL1.01000

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BAL +3
CHC +3
123456789
largest lead: BAL 1 · CHC 1lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHC 54%, BAL 46% · Updated Jul 9

Expected margin
CHC by 1.1
Expected score
CHC 5.3 – 4.2 BAL
Expected total
9.5
CubsThe matchupOrioles
−119Our fair odds+119
5.3Expected runs4.2
+0.15Power rating−0.09
5.1Runs / game4.6
4.5Allowed / game4.9
8.3Hits / game8.0
1.27Home runs / game1.16
4.4Walks drawn / game3.8
52−40Season record42−51
8−2Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHC chance · BAL chance
Our model fair54.4%45.6%
Kalshi47.7%56.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:30 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHCChicago Cubs−11954%+10947.7%———
BALBaltimore Orioles+11946%−13156.7%———
SpreadCHC by 1.1
CHCChicago Cubs−1.1our margin————
BALBaltimore Orioles+1.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.5
Over9.5our total————
Under9.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Chicago Cubs by 1.1 expected
Chicago Cubs by 15 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 14 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 13 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 12 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 11 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 10 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 9 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 8 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 7 runs: 3%Chicago Cubs by 6 runs: 4%Chicago Cubs by 5 runs: 5%Chicago Cubs by 4 runs: 7%Chicago Cubs by 3 runs: 8%Chicago Cubs by 2 runs: 10%Chicago Cubs by 1 run: 10%Baltimore Orioles by 1 run: 16%Baltimore Orioles by 2 runs: 8%Baltimore Orioles by 3 runs: 6%Baltimore Orioles by 4 runs: 4%Baltimore Orioles by 5 runs: 3%Baltimore Orioles by 6 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 7 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 8 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 9 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 10 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 11 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 12 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 13 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 14 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 15 runs: <1%
← CHC wins byBAL wins by →
Chicago Cubs wins by 2 or more46%
Chicago Cubs wins by 3 or more36%
Baltimore Orioles wins by 2 or more28%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.5 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.562%
Total over 9.544%
Total over 11.529%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CHCDavid Peterson SP · last 3 starts: 13.1 IP, 10.80 ERA, 10 Kstarted
BALTrevor Rogers SP · last 3 starts: 18.1 IP, 0.49 ERA, 17 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHC·BAL
Jul 8 at BAL
last game
Jul 8 vs CHC
0 days
days of rest
0 days
5
games in last 7 days
5
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 92+ games
CHC·BAL
+0.15
rating (0 = average)
−0.09
5.1
runs / game
4.6
4.5
runs allowed / game
4.9
52−40
season record
42−51
27−19
home record
24−25
25−21
away record
18−26
W3
streak
L3
8−2
last 10
3−7
8.3
hits / game
8.0
1.27
home runs / game
1.16
4.4
walks drawn / game
3.8
8.4
batter strikeouts / game
9.1
7.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.9
0.40
errors / game
0.59

Rating Trend

CHC · BAL · 106 days
Chicago CubsBaltimore Orioles
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BAL 2−8
Jul 8at BALCHC 9 − 7
Jul 7at BALCHC 5 − 2
Aug 3, 2025at CHCCHC 5 − 3
Aug 2, 2025at CHCBAL 4 − 3
Aug 1, 2025at CHCCHC 1 − 0
Jul 11, 2024at BALCHC 8 − 0
Jul 10, 2024at BALCHC 4 − 0
Jul 9, 2024at BALCHC 9 − 2
Jun 18, 2023at CHCBAL 6 − 3
Jun 17, 2023at CHCCHC 3 − 2

CHC · Last 10

8−2 · streak W3
Jul 8at BAL9 − 7W
Jul 7at BAL5 − 2W
Jul 5vs STL6 − 4W
Jul 4vs STL0 − 3L
Jul 3vs STL1 − 17L
Jul 1vs SD23 − 3W
Jun 30vs SD9 − 7W
Jun 29vs SD3 − 2W
Jun 28at MIL4 − 3W
Jun 27at MIL8 − 2W

BAL · Last 10

3−7 · streak L3
Jul 8vs CHC7 − 9L
Jul 7vs CHC2 − 5L
Jul 5at CIN2 − 3L
Jul 4at CIN8 − 5W
Jul 3at CIN3 − 0W
Jul 1vs CHW6 − 1W
Jun 30vs CHW3 − 9L
Jun 29vs CHW2 − 8L
Jun 28vs WSH4 − 6L
Jun 27vs WSH3 − 4L