bayesRatings

Cubs at Orioles

MLB · Wednesday, Jul 8 · 5:35 PM CT · Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Final CHC 9 – BAL 7
← MLB / Jul 8

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CHC001030500980
BAL0012002207141
Team box
CHC·BAL
8
hits
14
5
home runs
4
4
walks
2
6
strikeouts
4
149
pitches thrown
167
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Tyler O'NeillBAL2-2222
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC2-4322
Seiya SuzukiCHC1-4113
Pete AlonsoBAL1-5112
Jackson HollidayBAL4-4000
Coby MayoBAL1-1111
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Colin Rea (W)CHC5.17322
Jacob Webb (S)CHC1.00000
Dean Kremer (L)BAL5.06414

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BAL +6
CHC +6
123456789
largest lead: BAL 2 · CHC 6lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHC 54%, BAL 46% · Updated Jul 8

Expected margin
CHC by 1.0
Expected score
CHC 5.2 – 4.2 BAL
Expected total
9.4
CubsThe matchupOrioles
−118Our fair odds+118
5.2Expected runs4.2
+0.15Power rating−0.08
5.1Runs / game4.5
4.5Allowed / game4.9
8.3Hits / game7.9
1.23Home runs / game1.13
4.4Walks drawn / game3.8
51−40Season record42−50
7−3Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHC chance · BAL chance
Our model fair54.2%45.8%
Kalshi47.7%56.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:35 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHCChicago Cubs−11854%+10947.7%———
BALBaltimore Orioles+11846%−13156.7%———
SpreadCHC by 1.0
CHCChicago Cubs−1our margin————
BALBaltimore Orioles+1our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.4
Over9.4our total————
Under9.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Chicago Cubs by 1.0 expected
Chicago Cubs by 15 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 14 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 13 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 12 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 11 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 10 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 9 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 8 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 7 runs: 3%Chicago Cubs by 6 runs: 4%Chicago Cubs by 5 runs: 5%Chicago Cubs by 4 runs: 7%Chicago Cubs by 3 runs: 8%Chicago Cubs by 2 runs: 10%Chicago Cubs by 1 run: 10%Baltimore Orioles by 1 run: 16%Baltimore Orioles by 2 runs: 8%Baltimore Orioles by 3 runs: 6%Baltimore Orioles by 4 runs: 4%Baltimore Orioles by 5 runs: 3%Baltimore Orioles by 6 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 7 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 8 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 9 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 10 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 11 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 12 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 13 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 14 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 15 runs: <1%
← CHC wins byBAL wins by →
Chicago Cubs wins by 2 or more45%
Chicago Cubs wins by 3 or more35%
Baltimore Orioles wins by 2 or more28%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.4 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.561%
Total over 9.543%
Total over 11.528%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CHCColin Rea SP · last 3 starts: 15.1 IP, 1.76 ERA, 12 Kstarted
BALDean Kremer SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 3.18 ERA, 20 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHC·BAL
Jul 7 at BAL
last game
Jul 7 vs CHC
0 days
days of rest
0 days
5
games in last 7 days
5
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 91+ games
CHC·BAL
+0.15
rating (0 = average)
−0.08
5.1
runs / game
4.5
4.5
runs allowed / game
4.9
51−40
season record
42−50
27−19
home record
24−24
24−21
away record
18−26
W2
streak
L2
7−3
last 10
4−6
8.3
hits / game
7.9
1.23
home runs / game
1.13
4.4
walks drawn / game
3.8
8.4
batter strikeouts / game
9.2
7.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.9
0.41
errors / game
0.59

Rating Trend

CHC · BAL · 105 days
Chicago CubsBaltimore Orioles
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BAL 2−8
Jul 7at BALCHC 5 − 2
Aug 3, 2025at CHCCHC 5 − 3
Aug 2, 2025at CHCBAL 4 − 3
Aug 1, 2025at CHCCHC 1 − 0
Jul 11, 2024at BALCHC 8 − 0
Jul 10, 2024at BALCHC 4 − 0
Jul 9, 2024at BALCHC 9 − 2
Jun 18, 2023at CHCBAL 6 − 3
Jun 17, 2023at CHCCHC 3 − 2
Jun 16, 2023at CHCCHC 10 − 3

CHC · Last 10

7−3 · streak W2
Jul 7at BAL5 − 2W
Jul 5vs STL6 − 4W
Jul 4vs STL0 − 3L
Jul 3vs STL1 − 17L
Jul 1vs SD23 − 3W
Jun 30vs SD9 − 7W
Jun 29vs SD3 − 2W
Jun 28at MIL4 − 3W
Jun 27at MIL8 − 2W
Jun 26at MIL2 − 6L

BAL · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Jul 7vs CHC2 − 5L
Jul 5at CIN2 − 3L
Jul 4at CIN8 − 5W
Jul 3at CIN3 − 0W
Jul 1vs CHW6 − 1W
Jun 30vs CHW3 − 9L
Jun 29vs CHW2 − 8L
Jun 28vs WSH4 − 6L
Jun 27vs WSH3 − 4L
Jun 26vs WSH3 − 1W