bayesRatings

Royals at Mets

MLB · Thursday, Jul 9 · 12:10 PM CT · Citi Field · Final KC 3 – NYM 7
← MLB / Jul 9

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
KC100100100371
NYM010050107101
Team box
KC·NYM
7
hits
10
2
home runs
2
1
walks
4
9
strikeouts
7
145
pitches thrown
125
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Tyrone TaylorNYM2-3111
Lane ThomasKC1-4111
Bobby Witt Jr.KC1-4111
Juan SotoNYM1-2211
Jared YoungNYM2-4001
Carson BengeNYM2-3201
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Michael Wacha (L)KC4.26635
Sean Manaea (W)NYM7.06216

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYM +4
KC +4
123456789
largest lead: NYM 4 · KC 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was KC 48%, NYM 52% · Updated Jul 9

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
NYM 4.6 – 4.5 KC
Expected total
9.2
RoyalsThe matchupMets
+109Our fair odds−109
4.5Expected runs4.6
−0.11Power rating−0.08
4.3Runs / game4.2
5.1Allowed / game4.8
8.3Hits / game7.9
1.00Home runs / game1.16
3.3Walks drawn / game3.1
38−55Season record39−54
4−6Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
KC chance · NYM chance
Our model fair47.8%52.2%
Kalshi45.7%58.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
KCKansas City Royals+10948%+11945.7%———
NYMNew York Mets−10952%−14258.7%———
Spreadabout even
KCKansas City Royals+0.1our margin————
NYMNew York Mets−0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.2
Over9.2our total————
Under9.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Kansas City Royals by 13 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 12 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 11 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 10 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 9 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 8 runs: 2%Kansas City Royals by 7 runs: 2%Kansas City Royals by 6 runs: 3%Kansas City Royals by 5 runs: 4%Kansas City Royals by 4 runs: 5%Kansas City Royals by 3 runs: 7%Kansas City Royals by 2 runs: 10%Kansas City Royals by 1 run: 12%New York Mets by 1 run: 15%New York Mets by 2 runs: 10%New York Mets by 3 runs: 7%New York Mets by 4 runs: 6%New York Mets by 5 runs: 4%New York Mets by 6 runs: 3%New York Mets by 7 runs: 2%New York Mets by 8 runs: 2%New York Mets by 9 runs: 1%New York Mets by 10 runs: 1%New York Mets by 11 runs: 1%New York Mets by 12 runs: <1%New York Mets by 13 runs: <1%
← KC wins byNYM wins by →
New York Mets wins by 2 or more37%
New York Mets wins by 3 or more27%
Kansas City Royals wins by 2 or more36%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.2 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.559%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.527%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
KCMichael Wacha SP · last 3 starts: 20.2 IP, 2.61 ERA, 19 Kstarted
NYMSean Manaea SP · last 3 starts: 13.2 IP, 5.27 ERA, 12 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
KC·NYM
Jul 8 at NYM
last game
Jul 8 vs KC
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 93+ games
KC·NYM
−0.11
rating (0 = average)
−0.08
4.3
runs / game
4.2
5.1
runs allowed / game
4.8
38−55
season record
39−54
21−26
home record
20−25
17−29
away record
19−29
L1
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
4−6
8.3
hits / game
7.9
1.00
home runs / game
1.16
3.3
walks drawn / game
3.1
8.0
batter strikeouts / game
8.2
7.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.2
0.46
errors / game
0.66

Rating Trend

KC · NYM · 106 days
Kansas City RoyalsNew York Mets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYM 5−5
Jul 8at NYMNYM 6 − 2
Jul 7at NYMKC 16 − 12
Jul 13, 2025at KCKC 3 − 2
Jul 12, 2025at KCNYM 3 − 1
Jul 11, 2025at KCNYM 8 − 3
Apr 14, 2024at NYMNYM 2 − 1
Apr 13, 2024at NYMKC 11 − 7
Apr 12, 2024at NYMNYM 6 − 1
Aug 3, 2023at KCKC 9 − 2
Aug 2, 2023at KCKC 4 − 0

KC · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Jul 8at NYM2 − 6L
Jul 7at NYM16 − 12W
Jul 6vs PHI15 − 1W
Jul 5vs PHI5 − 2W
Jul 4vs PHI1 − 6L
Jul 2vs TB2 − 5L
Jul 1vs TB0 − 4L
Jun 30vs TB4 − 10L
Jun 28at CHW5 − 4W
Jun 27at CHW1 − 2L

NYM · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Jul 8vs KC6 − 2W
Jul 7vs KC12 − 16L
Jul 6at ATL7 − 6W
Jul 5at ATL10 − 9W
Jul 4at ATL3 − 14L
Jul 3at ATL3 − 5L
Jul 1at TOR3 − 9L
Jun 30at TOR3 − 0W
Jun 29at TOR1 − 2L
Jun 28vs PHI4 − 5L