bayesRatings

Diamondbacks at Padres

MLB · Thursday, Jul 9 · 8:40 PM CT · Petco Park · Final ARI 3 – SD 1
← MLB / Jul 9

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ARI000111000380
SD010000000130
Team box
ARI·SD
8
hits
3
1
home runs
1
2
walks
3
10
strikeouts
9
120
pitches thrown
148
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Manny MachadoSD2-3111
Nolan ArenadoARI1-4111
Geraldo PerdomoARI2-4001
Max KeplerARI1-4100
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.ARI1-4000
Corbin CarrollARI1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Merrill Kelly (W)ARI7.03136
Paul Sewald (S)ARI1.00002
Griffin Canning (L)SD4.27205

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SD +3
ARI +3
123456789
largest lead: SD 1 · ARI 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ARI 48%, SD 52% · Updated Jul 9

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
SD 4.2 – 3.9 ARI
Expected total
8.1
DiamondbacksThe matchupPadres
+110Our fair odds−110
3.9Expected runs4.2
−0.02Power rating+0.01
4.2Runs / game3.9
4.6Allowed / game4.4
7.9Hits / game7.4
0.90Home runs / game1.04
3.1Walks drawn / game3.3
45−47Season record46−46
4−6Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ARI chance · SD chance
Our model fair47.6%52.4%
Kalshi48.7%55.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ARIArizona Diamondbacks+11048%+10548.7%———
SDSan Diego Padres−11052%−12655.7%———
Spreadabout even
ARIArizona Diamondbacks+0.3our margin————
SDSan Diego Padres−0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.1
Over8.1our total————
Under8.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Arizona Diamondbacks by 12 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 11 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 10 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 9 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 8 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 7 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 6 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 5 runs: 4%Arizona Diamondbacks by 4 runs: 5%Arizona Diamondbacks by 3 runs: 7%Arizona Diamondbacks by 2 runs: 10%Arizona Diamondbacks by 1 run: 15%San Diego Padres by 1 run: 15%San Diego Padres by 2 runs: 11%San Diego Padres by 3 runs: 8%San Diego Padres by 4 runs: 6%San Diego Padres by 5 runs: 4%San Diego Padres by 6 runs: 3%San Diego Padres by 7 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 8 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 9 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 10 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 11 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 12 runs: <1%
← ARI wins bySD wins by →
San Diego Padres wins by 2 or more38%
San Diego Padres wins by 3 or more27%
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.1 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.562%
Total over 8.542%
Total over 10.525%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ARIMerrill Kelly SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 5.29 ERA, 11 Kstarted
SDGriffin Canning RP · last 3 starts: 14.1 IP, 6.28 ERA, 15 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ARI·SD
Jul 8 at SD
last game
Jul 8 vs ARI
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
4th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 92+ games
ARI·SD
−0.02
rating (0 = average)
+0.01
4.2
runs / game
3.9
4.6
runs allowed / game
4.4
45−47
season record
46−46
27−20
home record
25−22
18−27
away record
21−24
L2
streak
W2
4−6
last 10
3−7
7.9
hits / game
7.4
0.90
home runs / game
1.04
3.1
walks drawn / game
3.3
7.2
batter strikeouts / game
8.4
6.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.1
0.38
errors / game
0.37

Rating Trend

ARI · SD · 106 days
Arizona DiamondbacksSan Diego Padres
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SD 8−2
Jul 8at SDSD 10 − 4
Jul 7at SDSD 4 − 1
Jul 6at SDARI 8 − 0
Apr 26at ARIARI 12 − 7
Apr 25at ARISD 6 − 4
Sep 28, 2025at SDSD 12 − 4
Sep 27, 2025at SDSD 5 − 1
Sep 26, 2025at SDSD 7 − 4
Aug 6, 2025at ARISD 3 − 2
Aug 5, 2025at ARISD 10 − 5

ARI · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Jul 8at SD4 − 10L
Jul 7at SD1 − 4L
Jul 6at SD8 − 0W
Jul 5vs MIL2 − 3L
Jul 4vs MIL4 − 3W
Jul 3vs MIL4 − 7L
Jul 1vs SF4 − 6L
Jun 30vs SF8 − 2W
Jun 29vs SF5 − 4W
Jun 28at TB1 − 5L

SD · Last 10

3−7 · streak W2
Jul 8vs ARI10 − 4W
Jul 7vs ARI4 − 1W
Jul 6vs ARI0 − 8L
Jul 5at LAD5 − 2W
Jul 4at LAD0 − 3L
Jul 3at LAD3 − 4L
Jul 2at LAD7 − 12L
Jul 1at CHC3 − 23L
Jun 30at CHC7 − 9L
Jun 29at CHC2 − 3L