bayesRatings

Marlins at Astros

MLB · Tuesday, Jul 21 · 7:10 PM CT · Daikin Park · Final MIA 3 – HOU 5
← MLB / Jul 21

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIA000010200381
HOU11003000580
Team box
MIA·HOU
8
hits
8
1
home runs
2
3
walks
1
13
strikeouts
5
118
pitches thrown
143
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Isaac ParedesHOU2-4113
Joe MackMIA1-4112
Jeremy PenaHOU1-4211
Kyle StowersMIA2-5001
Yordan AlvarezHOU2-4100
Lucas SpenceHOU1-3001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Tyler Phillips (L)MIA4.15212
Tatsuya Imai (W)HOU6.04138
Josh Hader (S)HOU1.01001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
HOU +4
MIA +4
123456789
largest lead: HOU 4 · MIA 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIA 50%, HOU 50% · Updated Jul 21

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
MIA 4.6 – 4.5 HOU
Expected total
9.1
MarlinsThe matchupAstros
+101Our fair odds−101
4.6Expected runs4.5
−0.00Power rating−0.05
4.5Runs / game4.5
4.3Allowed / game5.0
8.4Hits / game8.1
1.02Home runs / game1.34
3.4Walks drawn / game3.3
52−49Season record48−54
3−7Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIA chance · HOU chance
Our model fair49.6%50.4%
Kalshi48.7%55.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MIAMiami Marlins+10150%+10548.7%———
HOUHouston Astros−10150%−12655.7%———
Spreadabout even
MIAMiami Marlins−0.1our margin————
HOUHouston Astros+0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.1
Over9.1our total————
Under9.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Miami Marlins by 13 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 12 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 11 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 10 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 9 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 8 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 7 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 6 runs: 3%Miami Marlins by 5 runs: 4%Miami Marlins by 4 runs: 6%Miami Marlins by 3 runs: 7%Miami Marlins by 2 runs: 10%Miami Marlins by 1 run: 12%Houston Astros by 1 run: 15%Houston Astros by 2 runs: 10%Houston Astros by 3 runs: 7%Houston Astros by 4 runs: 5%Houston Astros by 5 runs: 4%Houston Astros by 6 runs: 3%Houston Astros by 7 runs: 2%Houston Astros by 8 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 9 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 10 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 11 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 12 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 13 runs: <1%
← MIA wins byHOU wins by →
Miami Marlins wins by 2 or more37%
Miami Marlins wins by 3 or more28%
Houston Astros wins by 2 or more35%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.1 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.559%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.526%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MIATyler Phillips SP · last 3 starts: 9.1 IP, 6.75 ERA, 6 Kstarted
HOUTatsuya Imai SP · last 3 starts: 11.0 IP, 5.73 ERA, 15 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIA·HOU
Jul 20 at HOU
last game
Jul 20 vs MIA
0 days
days of rest
0 days
4
games in last 7 days
4
5th straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 101+ games
MIA·HOU
−0.00
rating (0 = average)
−0.05
4.5
runs / game
4.5
4.3
runs allowed / game
5.0
52−49
season record
48−54
31−20
home record
24−27
21−29
away record
24−27
L7
streak
W1
3−7
last 10
3−7
8.4
hits / game
8.1
1.02
home runs / game
1.34
3.4
walks drawn / game
3.3
8.2
batter strikeouts / game
8.1
8.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.8
0.63
errors / game
0.42

Rating Trend

MIA · HOU · 115 days
Miami MarlinsHouston Astros
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · HOU 8−2
Jul 20at HOUHOU 8 − 5
Aug 6, 2025at MIAMIA 6 − 4
Aug 5, 2025at MIAHOU 7 − 3
Aug 4, 2025at MIAHOU 8 − 2
Jul 11, 2024at HOUHOU 6 − 3
Jul 10, 2024at HOUHOU 9 − 1
Jul 9, 2024at HOUHOU 4 − 3
Aug 16, 2023at MIAHOU 12 − 5
Aug 15, 2023at MIAHOU 6 − 5
Aug 14, 2023at MIAMIA 5 − 1

MIA · Last 10

3−7 · streak L7
Jul 20at HOU5 − 8L
Jul 19at MIL1 − 3L
Jul 18at MIL6 − 8L
Jul 17at MIL1 − 2L
Jul 12vs CLE2 − 5L
Jul 11vs CLE1 − 4L
Jul 10vs CLE2 − 3L
Jul 9vs SEA8 − 4W
Jul 8vs SEA2 − 0W
Jul 7vs SEA6 − 5W

HOU · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Jul 20vs MIA8 − 5W
Jul 19vs BAL2 − 5L
Jul 18vs BAL2 − 4L
Jul 17vs BAL2 − 3L
Jul 12at TEX5 − 6L
Jul 11at TEX9 − 3W
Jul 10at TEX3 − 7L
Jul 8at WSH2 − 8L
Jul 7at WSH6 − 3W
Jul 6at WSH11 − 12L