bayesRatings

Orioles at Astros

MLB · Saturday, Jul 18 · 3:10 PM CT · Daikin Park · Final BAL 4 – HOU 2
← MLB / Jul 18

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234567891011THE
BAL00010000012452
HOU00000010010290
Team box
BAL·HOU
5
hits
9
0
home runs
0
6
walks
2
15
strikeouts
10
151
pitches thrown
192
2
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Dylan BeaversBAL2-3001
Tyler O'NeillBAL1-2001
Leody TaverasBAL1-1101
Yordan AlvarezHOU1-4001
Nick AllenHOU1-2001
Zach DezenzoHOU2-5100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Trevor RogersBAL6.17118
Andrew Kittredge (W)BAL1.02000
Cam Sanders (S)BAL1.00001
Spencer ArrighettiHOU5.01146
Enyel De Los Santos (L)HOU1.02112

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
HOU +3
BAL +3
1234567891011
largest lead: HOU 0 · BAL 2lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BAL 49%, HOU 51% · Updated Jul 18

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
HOU 4.6 – 4.6 BAL
Expected total
9.2
OriolesThe matchupAstros
+106Our fair odds−106
4.6Expected runs4.6
−0.05Power rating−0.04
4.6Runs / game4.6
4.8Allowed / game5.0
7.9Hits / game8.1
1.20Home runs / game1.34
3.8Walks drawn / game3.3
47−51Season record47−52
7−3Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BAL chance · HOU chance
Our model fair48.6%51.4%
Kalshi52.7%52.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BALBaltimore Orioles+10649%−11252.7%———
HOUHouston Astros−10651%−11252.7%———
Spreadabout even
BALBaltimore OriolesPKour margin————
HOUHouston AstrosPKour margin————
Totalwe expect 9.2
Over9.2our total————
Under9.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Baltimore Orioles by 13 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 12 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 11 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 10 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 9 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 8 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 7 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 6 runs: 3%Baltimore Orioles by 5 runs: 4%Baltimore Orioles by 4 runs: 6%Baltimore Orioles by 3 runs: 7%Baltimore Orioles by 2 runs: 10%Baltimore Orioles by 1 run: 12%Houston Astros by 1 run: 15%Houston Astros by 2 runs: 10%Houston Astros by 3 runs: 7%Houston Astros by 4 runs: 5%Houston Astros by 5 runs: 4%Houston Astros by 6 runs: 3%Houston Astros by 7 runs: 2%Houston Astros by 8 runs: 2%Houston Astros by 9 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 10 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 11 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 12 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 13 runs: <1%
← BAL wins byHOU wins by →
Houston Astros wins by 2 or more36%
Houston Astros wins by 3 or more27%
Baltimore Orioles wins by 2 or more37%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.2 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.559%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.527%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
BALTrevor Rogers SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 1.04 ERA, 15 Kstarted
HOUSpencer Arrighetti SP · last 3 starts: 13.0 IP, 11.77 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BAL·HOU
Jul 17 at HOU
last game
Jul 17 vs BAL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
3
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 98+ games
BAL·HOU
−0.05
rating (0 = average)
−0.04
4.6
runs / game
4.6
4.8
runs allowed / game
5.0
47−51
season record
47−52
28−25
home record
23−25
19−26
away record
24−27
W5
streak
L2
7−3
last 10
4−6
7.9
hits / game
8.1
1.20
home runs / game
1.34
3.8
walks drawn / game
3.3
9.1
batter strikeouts / game
8.1
7.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.7
0.60
errors / game
0.42

Rating Trend

BAL · HOU · 112 days
Baltimore OriolesHouston Astros
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · HOU 5−5
Jul 17at HOUBAL 3 − 2
Apr 30at BALHOU 11 − 5
Apr 30at BALBAL 10 − 3
Apr 28at BALBAL 5 − 3
Aug 24, 2025at BALBAL 3 − 2
Aug 23, 2025at BALHOU 9 − 8
Aug 22, 2025at BALHOU 10 − 7
Aug 21, 2025at BALHOU 7 − 2
Aug 17, 2025at HOUBAL 12 − 0
Aug 16, 2025at HOUHOU 5 − 4

BAL · Last 10

7−3 · streak W5
Jul 17at HOU3 − 2W
Jul 12vs KC8 − 2W
Jul 11vs KC6 − 1W
Jul 10vs KC5 − 3W
Jul 9vs CHC3 − 2W
Jul 8vs CHC7 − 9L
Jul 7vs CHC2 − 5L
Jul 5at CIN2 − 3L
Jul 4at CIN8 − 5W
Jul 3at CIN3 − 0W

HOU · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Jul 17vs BAL2 − 3L
Jul 12at TEX5 − 6L
Jul 11at TEX9 − 3W
Jul 10at TEX3 − 7L
Jul 8at WSH2 − 8L
Jul 7at WSH6 − 3W
Jul 6at WSH11 − 12L
Jul 5vs TB2 − 0W
Jul 4vs TB10 − 8W
Jul 3vs TB1 − 3L