bayesRatings

Rays at Astros

MLB · Friday, Jul 3 · 7:15 PM CT · Daikin Park · Final TB 3 – HOU 1
← MLB / Jul 3

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TB000001110351
HOU000001000131
Team box
TB·HOU
5
hits
3
2
home runs
1
1
walks
1
8
strikeouts
4
113
pitches thrown
119
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Nick FortesTB2-3112
Yordan AlvarezHOU1-4111
Junior CamineroTB1-4111
Isaac ParedesHOU1-3000
Cam SmithHOU1-4000
Yandy DiazTB1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Nick MartinezTB5.13113
Kevin Kelly (W)TB1.20000
Bryan Baker (S)TB1.00001
Spencer ArrighettiHOU6.02114
Steven Okert (L)HOU1.01102

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
HOU +3
TB +3
123456789
largest lead: HOU 0 · TB 2lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TB 51%, HOU 49% · Updated Jul 3

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
TB 4.6 – 4.2 HOU
Expected total
8.8
RaysThe matchupAstros
−105Our fair odds+105
4.6Expected runs4.2
+0.08Power rating−0.03
4.6Runs / game4.5
4.1Allowed / game5.0
8.7Hits / game8.1
0.94Home runs / game1.30
3.6Walks drawn / game3.3
51−33Season record43−46
8−2Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TB chance · HOU chance
Our model fair51.2%48.8%
Kalshi52.7%52.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TBTampa Bay Rays−10551%−11252.7%———
HOUHouston Astros+10549%−11252.7%———
Spreadabout even
TBTampa Bay Rays−0.4our margin————
HOUHouston Astros+0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.8
Over8.8our total————
Under8.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Tampa Bay Rays by 13 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 12 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 11 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 10 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 9 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 8 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 7 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 6 runs: 3%Tampa Bay Rays by 5 runs: 5%Tampa Bay Rays by 4 runs: 6%Tampa Bay Rays by 3 runs: 8%Tampa Bay Rays by 2 runs: 10%Tampa Bay Rays by 1 run: 12%Houston Astros by 1 run: 16%Houston Astros by 2 runs: 9%Houston Astros by 3 runs: 7%Houston Astros by 4 runs: 5%Houston Astros by 5 runs: 4%Houston Astros by 6 runs: 3%Houston Astros by 7 runs: 2%Houston Astros by 8 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 9 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 10 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 11 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 12 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 13 runs: <1%
← TB wins byHOU wins by →
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 2 or more40%
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 3 or more29%
Houston Astros wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.8 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.568%
Total over 8.548%
Total over 10.531%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TBNick Martinez SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 3.71 ERA, 14 Kstarted
HOUSpencer Arrighetti SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 10.80 ERA, 22 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TB·HOU
Jul 2 at KC
last game
Jul 1 vs MIN
0 days
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 84+ games
TB·HOU
+0.08
rating (0 = average)
−0.03
4.6
runs / game
4.5
4.1
runs allowed / game
5.0
51−33
season record
43−46
31−12
home record
21−23
20−21
away record
22−23
W8
streak
L1
8−2
last 10
6−4
8.7
hits / game
8.1
0.94
home runs / game
1.30
3.6
walks drawn / game
3.3
7.1
batter strikeouts / game
8.2
7.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.6
0.60
errors / game
0.40

Rating Trend

TB · HOU · 100 days
Tampa Bay RaysHouston Astros
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · HOU 6−4
Jun 1, 2025at HOUHOU 1 − 0
May 31, 2025at HOUTB 16 − 3
May 30, 2025at HOUHOU 2 − 1
May 29, 2025at HOUTB 13 − 3
May 21, 2025at TBTB 8 − 4
May 20, 2025at TBTB 3 − 2
May 19, 2025at TBHOU 4 − 3
Aug 14, 2024at TBHOU 2 − 1
Aug 13, 2024at TBHOU 3 − 2
Aug 12, 2024at TBHOU 6 − 1

TB · Last 10

8−2 · streak W8
Jul 2at KC5 − 2W
Jul 1at KC4 − 0W
Jun 30at KC10 − 4W
Jun 28vs ARI5 − 1W
Jun 27vs ARI4 − 2W
Jun 26vs ARI6 − 1W
Jun 25vs KC13 − 2W
Jun 24vs KC5 − 3W
Jun 23vs KC5 − 12L
Jun 22vs KC1 − 2L

HOU · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Jul 1vs MIN3 − 8L
Jun 30vs MIN6 − 4W
Jun 29vs MIN4 − 5L
Jun 28at DET7 − 5W
Jun 27at DET8 − 6W
Jun 26at DET0 − 8L
Jun 25at DET2 − 1W
Jun 24at TOR3 − 1W
Jun 23at TOR9 − 7W
Jun 22at TOR2 − 4L