bayesRatings

Astros at Nationals

MLB · Monday, Jul 6 · 5:45 PM CT · Nationals Park · Final HOU 11 – WSH 12
← MLB / Jul 6

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
HOU13200104011122
WSH1050600012130
Team box
HOU·WSH
12
hits
13
3
home runs
3
3
walks
3
6
strikeouts
9
148
pitches thrown
155
2
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Curtis MeadWSH3-5213
CJ AbramsWSH3-5213
Brice MatthewsHOU2-4213
James WoodWSH1-2314
Jose AltuveHOU1-5113
Yainer DiazHOU2-4212
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Mike Burrows (L)HOU4.19723
Miles Mikolas (W)WSH6.09723
Clayton Beeter (S)WSH1.10001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
WSH +6
HOU +6
123456789
largest lead: WSH 6 · HOU 5lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was HOU 50%, WSH 50% · Updated Jul 6

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
HOU 5.6 – 5.2 WSH
Expected total
10.8
AstrosThe matchupNationals
+102Our fair odds−102
5.6Expected runs5.2
−0.03Power rating−0.07
4.5Runs / game5.3
5.0Allowed / game5.2
8.1Hits / game8.5
1.33Home runs / game1.37
3.3Walks drawn / game3.4
45−47Season record46−45
6−4Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
HOU chance · WSH chance
Our model fair49.6%50.4%
Kalshi50.7%53.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:45 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
HOUHouston Astros+10250%−10350.7%———
WSHWashington Nationals−10250%−11653.7%———
Spreadabout even
HOUHouston Astros−0.4our margin————
WSHWashington Nationals+0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 10.8
Over10.8our total————
Under10.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Houston Astros by 15 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 14 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 13 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 12 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 11 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 10 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 9 runs: 2%Houston Astros by 8 runs: 2%Houston Astros by 7 runs: 3%Houston Astros by 6 runs: 4%Houston Astros by 5 runs: 5%Houston Astros by 4 runs: 6%Houston Astros by 3 runs: 7%Houston Astros by 2 runs: 9%Houston Astros by 1 run: 9%Washington Nationals by 1 run: 15%Washington Nationals by 2 runs: 8%Washington Nationals by 3 runs: 6%Washington Nationals by 4 runs: 5%Washington Nationals by 5 runs: 4%Washington Nationals by 6 runs: 3%Washington Nationals by 7 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 8 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 9 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 10 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 11 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 12 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 13 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 14 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 15 runs: <1%
← HOU wins byWSH wins by →
Houston Astros wins by 2 or more41%
Houston Astros wins by 3 or more32%
Washington Nationals wins by 2 or more35%
Decided by one run24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

10.8 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 3%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 7%6 runs: 5%7 runs: 9%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 7%14 runs: 5%15 runs: 5%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%27 runs: <1%28 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 8.564%
Total over 10.548%
Total over 12.533%
Total from 9 to 1231%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
HOUMike Burrows SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 5.06 ERA, 11 Kstarted
WSHMiles Mikolas SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 5.17 ERA, 8 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
HOU·WSH
Jul 5 vs TB
last game
Jul 5 vs PIT
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 91+ games
HOU·WSH
−0.03
rating (0 = average)
−0.07
4.5
runs / game
5.3
5.0
runs allowed / game
5.2
45−47
season record
46−45
23−24
home record
18−27
22−23
away record
28−18
W2
streak
L2
6−4
last 10
5−5
8.1
hits / game
8.5
1.33
home runs / game
1.37
3.3
walks drawn / game
3.4
8.2
batter strikeouts / game
8.3
8.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.9
0.41
errors / game
0.79

Rating Trend

HOU · WSH · 103 days
Houston AstrosWashington Nationals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · WSH 4−6
Jul 30, 2025at HOUHOU 9 − 1
Jul 29, 2025at HOUHOU 7 − 4
Jul 28, 2025at HOUWSH 2 − 1
Apr 21, 2024at WSHWSH 6 − 0
Apr 20, 2024at WSHWSH 5 − 4
Apr 19, 2024at WSHHOU 5 − 3
Jun 15, 2023at HOUWSH 4 − 1
Jun 14, 2023at HOUHOU 5 − 4
Jun 13, 2023at HOUHOU 6 − 1
May 15, 2022at WSHHOU 8 − 0

HOU · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Jul 5vs TB2 − 0W
Jul 4vs TB10 − 8W
Jul 3vs TB1 − 3L
Jul 1vs MIN3 − 8L
Jun 30vs MIN6 − 4W
Jun 29vs MIN4 − 5L
Jun 28at DET7 − 5W
Jun 27at DET8 − 6W
Jun 26at DET0 − 8L
Jun 25at DET2 − 1W

WSH · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Jul 5vs PIT5 − 11L
Jul 4vs PIT1 − 7L
Jul 3vs PIT9 − 5W
Jul 1at BOS10 − 2W
Jun 30at BOS8 − 1W
Jun 29at BOS3 − 6L
Jun 28at BAL6 − 4W
Jun 27at BAL4 − 3W
Jun 26at BAL1 − 3L
Jun 25vs PHI5 − 10L