bayesRatings

Rays at Astros

MLB · Sunday, Jul 5 · 2:30 PM CT · Daikin Park · Final TB 0 – HOU 2
← MLB / Jul 5

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TB000000000042
HOU00010100260
Team box
TB·HOU
4
hits
6
0
home runs
2
2
walks
1
9
strikeouts
12
128
pitches thrown
148
2
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Isaac ParedesHOU2-4111
Christian WalkerHOU1-4111
Christian VazquezHOU1-3000
Jose AltuveHOU1-3000
Cam SmithHOU1-3000
Jonathan ArandaTB1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Mason Englert (L)TB5.25219
Peter Lambert (W)HOU5.23016
Josh Hader (S)HOU1.00012

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
HOU +3
TB +3
123456789
largest lead: HOU 2 · TB 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TB 52%, HOU 48% · Updated Jul 5

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
TB 4.6 – 4.2 HOU
Expected total
8.8
RaysThe matchupAstros
−106Our fair odds+106
4.6Expected runs4.2
+0.09Power rating−0.03
4.6Runs / game4.5
4.2Allowed / game5.0
8.7Hits / game8.1
0.98Home runs / game1.32
3.7Walks drawn / game3.3
52−34Season record44−47
9−1Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TB chance · HOU chance
Our model fair51.5%48.5%
Kalshi50.7%53.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 2:30 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TBTampa Bay Rays−10652%−10350.7%———
HOUHouston Astros+10648%−11653.7%———
Spreadabout even
TBTampa Bay Rays−0.4our margin————
HOUHouston Astros+0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.8
Over8.8our total————
Under8.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Tampa Bay Rays by 13 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 12 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 11 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 10 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 9 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 8 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 7 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 6 runs: 3%Tampa Bay Rays by 5 runs: 5%Tampa Bay Rays by 4 runs: 6%Tampa Bay Rays by 3 runs: 8%Tampa Bay Rays by 2 runs: 10%Tampa Bay Rays by 1 run: 12%Houston Astros by 1 run: 16%Houston Astros by 2 runs: 9%Houston Astros by 3 runs: 7%Houston Astros by 4 runs: 5%Houston Astros by 5 runs: 4%Houston Astros by 6 runs: 3%Houston Astros by 7 runs: 2%Houston Astros by 8 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 9 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 10 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 11 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 12 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 13 runs: <1%
← TB wins byHOU wins by →
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 2 or more40%
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 3 or more29%
Houston Astros wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.8 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.568%
Total over 8.548%
Total over 10.531%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TBMason Englert RP · last 3 starts: 8.1 IP, 4.32 ERA, 5 Kstarted
HOUPeter Lambert SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 3.63 ERA, 15 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TB·HOU
Jul 4 at HOU
last game
Jul 4 vs TB
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
6th straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 86+ games
TB·HOU
+0.09
rating (0 = average)
−0.03
4.6
runs / game
4.5
4.2
runs allowed / game
5.0
52−34
season record
44−47
31−12
home record
22−24
21−22
away record
22−23
L1
streak
W1
9−1
last 10
6−4
8.7
hits / game
8.1
0.98
home runs / game
1.32
3.7
walks drawn / game
3.3
7.1
batter strikeouts / game
8.2
7.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.6
0.59
errors / game
0.42

Rating Trend

TB · HOU · 102 days
Tampa Bay RaysHouston Astros
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · HOU 5−5
Jul 4at HOUHOU 10 − 8
Jul 3at HOUTB 3 − 1
Jun 1, 2025at HOUHOU 1 − 0
May 31, 2025at HOUTB 16 − 3
May 30, 2025at HOUHOU 2 − 1
May 29, 2025at HOUTB 13 − 3
May 21, 2025at TBTB 8 − 4
May 20, 2025at TBTB 3 − 2
May 19, 2025at TBHOU 4 − 3
Aug 14, 2024at TBHOU 2 − 1

TB · Last 10

9−1 · streak L1
Jul 4at HOU8 − 10L
Jul 3at HOU3 − 1W
Jul 2at KC5 − 2W
Jul 1at KC4 − 0W
Jun 30at KC10 − 4W
Jun 28vs ARI5 − 1W
Jun 27vs ARI4 − 2W
Jun 26vs ARI6 − 1W
Jun 25vs KC13 − 2W
Jun 24vs KC5 − 3W

HOU · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Jul 4vs TB10 − 8W
Jul 3vs TB1 − 3L
Jul 1vs MIN3 − 8L
Jun 30vs MIN6 − 4W
Jun 29vs MIN4 − 5L
Jun 28at DET7 − 5W
Jun 27at DET8 − 6W
Jun 26at DET0 − 8L
Jun 25at DET2 − 1W
Jun 24at TOR3 − 1W