bayesRatings

Astros at Rangers

MLB · Saturday, Jul 11 · 6:05 PM CT · Globe Life Field · Final HOU 9 – TEX 3
← MLB / Jul 11

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
HOU2041000029100
TEX000100002371
Team box
HOU·TEX
10
hits
7
3
home runs
2
4
walks
2
9
strikeouts
12
160
pitches thrown
155
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Ezequiel DuranTEX2-4223
LaMonte Wade Jr.HOU1-4114
Yordan AlvarezHOU2-3212
Christian VazquezHOU1-3111
Isaac ParedesHOU2-4200
Evan CarterTEX2-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Peter Lambert (W)HOU6.03117
Kumar Rocker (L)TEX5.28726

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TEX +8
HOU +8
123456789
largest lead: TEX 0 · HOU 8lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was HOU 48%, TEX 52% · Updated Jul 11

Expected margin
TEX by 0.5
Expected score
TEX 4.3 – 3.8 HOU
Expected total
8.1
AstrosThe matchupRangers
+110Our fair odds−110
3.8Expected runs4.3
−0.04Power rating+0.00
4.5Runs / game4.1
5.1Allowed / game4.3
8.1Hits / game8.1
1.33Home runs / game1.13
3.3Walks drawn / game3.3
46−50Season record48−46
4−6Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
HOU chance · TEX chance
Our model fair47.6%52.4%
Kalshi49.7%54.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
HOUHouston Astros+11048%+10149.7%———
TEXTexas Rangers−11052%−12154.7%———
SpreadTEX by 0.5
HOUHouston Astros+0.5our margin————
TEXTexas Rangers−0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.1
Over8.1our total————
Under8.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Texas Rangers by 0.5 expected
Houston Astros by 13 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 12 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 11 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 10 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 9 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 8 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 7 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 6 runs: 2%Houston Astros by 5 runs: 3%Houston Astros by 4 runs: 5%Houston Astros by 3 runs: 6%Houston Astros by 2 runs: 9%Houston Astros by 1 run: 17%Texas Rangers by 1 run: 13%Texas Rangers by 2 runs: 11%Texas Rangers by 3 runs: 8%Texas Rangers by 4 runs: 6%Texas Rangers by 5 runs: 5%Texas Rangers by 6 runs: 3%Texas Rangers by 7 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 8 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 9 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 10 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 11 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 12 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 13 runs: <1%
← HOU wins byTEX wins by →
Texas Rangers wins by 2 or more40%
Texas Rangers wins by 3 or more29%
Houston Astros wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.1 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.562%
Total over 8.542%
Total over 10.525%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
HOUPeter Lambert SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 3.38 ERA, 16 Kstarted
TEXKumar Rocker SP · last 3 starts: 13.2 IP, 5.93 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
HOU·TEX
Jul 10 at TEX
last game
Jul 10 vs HOU
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
5th straight road game
home / road
8th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 94+ games
HOU·TEX
−0.04
rating (0 = average)
+0.00
4.5
runs / game
4.1
5.1
runs allowed / game
4.3
46−50
season record
48−46
23−24
home record
23−21
23−26
away record
25−25
L2
streak
W2
4−6
last 10
6−4
8.1
hits / game
8.1
1.33
home runs / game
1.13
3.3
walks drawn / game
3.3
8.1
batter strikeouts / game
8.4
8.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.5
0.43
errors / game
0.46

Rating Trend

HOU · TEX · 108 days
Houston AstrosTexas Rangers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TEX 3−7
Jul 10at TEXTEX 7 − 3
May 28at TEXHOU 5 − 1
May 27at TEXHOU 4 − 3
May 26at TEXTEX 10 − 7
May 25at TEXHOU 9 − 0
May 17at HOUTEX 8 − 0
May 16at HOUHOU 4 − 1
May 15at HOUHOU 2 − 0
Sep 17, 2025at HOUHOU 5 − 2
Sep 16, 2025at HOUHOU 6 − 5

HOU · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Jul 10at TEX3 − 7L
Jul 8at WSH2 − 8L
Jul 7at WSH6 − 3W
Jul 6at WSH11 − 12L
Jul 5vs TB2 − 0W
Jul 4vs TB10 − 8W
Jul 3vs TB1 − 3L
Jul 1vs MIN3 − 8L
Jun 30vs MIN6 − 4W
Jun 29vs MIN4 − 5L

TEX · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Jul 10vs HOU7 − 3W
Jul 9vs LAA7 − 6W
Jul 8vs LAA1 − 13L
Jul 7vs LAA8 − 3W
Jul 5vs DET3 − 6L
Jul 4vs DET0 − 3L
Jul 2vs DET10 − 4W
Jul 1at CLE4 − 9L
Jun 30at CLE4 − 2W
Jun 29at CLE6 − 3W