bayesRatings

Angels at Rangers

MLB · Thursday, Jul 9 · 7:05 PM CT · Globe Life Field · Final LAA 6 – TEX 7
← MLB / Jul 9

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
LAA0010005006100
TEX2021010017111
Team box
LAA·TEX
10
hits
11
0
home runs
3
4
walks
1
15
strikeouts
10
146
pitches thrown
174
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Nolan SchanuelLAA4-4102
Justin FoscueTEX2-3112
Brandon NimmoTEX2-4211
Ezequiel DuranTEX1-4112
Wade MecklerLAA2-3201
Jorge SolerLAA1-5001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Reid DetmersLAA4.07516
Kirby Yates (L)LAA0.12100
Nathan EovaldiTEX6.063210
Cole Winn (W)TEX0.10000

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TEX +5
LAA +5
123456789
largest lead: TEX 5 · LAA 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAA 43%, TEX 57% · Updated Jul 9

Expected margin
TEX by 0.9
Expected score
TEX 4.6 – 3.7 LAA
Expected total
8.3
AngelsThe matchupRangers
+131Our fair odds−131
3.7Expected runs4.6
−0.23Power rating−0.01
4.5Runs / game4.1
5.0Allowed / game4.2
8.0Hits / game8.1
1.15Home runs / game1.09
3.2Walks drawn / game3.3
37−56Season record46−46
3−7Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAA chance · TEX chance
Our model fair43.3%56.7%
Kalshi45.7%58.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LAALos Angeles Angels+13143%+11945.7%———
TEXTexas Rangers−13157%−14258.7%———
SpreadTEX by 0.9
LAALos Angeles Angels+0.9our margin————
TEXTexas Rangers−0.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.3
Over8.3our total————
Under8.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Texas Rangers by 0.9 expected
Los Angeles Angels by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 11 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 10 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 9 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 8 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 7 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 6 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 5 runs: 3%Los Angeles Angels by 4 runs: 4%Los Angeles Angels by 3 runs: 6%Los Angeles Angels by 2 runs: 9%Los Angeles Angels by 1 run: 16%Texas Rangers by 1 run: 13%Texas Rangers by 2 runs: 11%Texas Rangers by 3 runs: 8%Texas Rangers by 4 runs: 7%Texas Rangers by 5 runs: 5%Texas Rangers by 6 runs: 4%Texas Rangers by 7 runs: 3%Texas Rangers by 8 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 9 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 10 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 11 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 12 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 13 runs: <1%
← LAA wins byTEX wins by →
Texas Rangers wins by 2 or more44%
Texas Rangers wins by 3 or more33%
Los Angeles Angels wins by 2 or more27%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.3 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.564%
Total over 8.544%
Total over 10.527%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
LAAReid Detmers SP · last 3 starts: 16.2 IP, 6.48 ERA, 17 Kstarted
TEXNathan Eovaldi SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 3.00 ERA, 27 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAA·TEX
Jul 8 at TEX
last game
Jul 8 vs LAA
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
5
3rd straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 92+ games
LAA·TEX
−0.23
rating (0 = average)
−0.01
4.5
runs / game
4.1
5.0
runs allowed / game
4.2
37−56
season record
46−46
21−25
home record
21−21
16−31
away record
25−25
W1
streak
L1
3−7
last 10
6−4
8.0
hits / game
8.1
1.15
home runs / game
1.09
3.2
walks drawn / game
3.3
9.5
batter strikeouts / game
8.3
8.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.5
0.62
errors / game
0.46

Rating Trend

LAA · TEX · 106 days
Los Angeles AngelsTexas Rangers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TEX 4−6
Jul 8at TEXLAA 13 − 1
Jul 7at TEXTEX 8 − 3
May 24at LAALAA 2 − 1
May 23at LAALAA 5 − 2
May 22at LAALAA 9 − 6
Aug 27, 2025at TEXTEX 20 − 3
Aug 26, 2025at TEXTEX 7 − 3
Aug 25, 2025at TEXLAA 4 − 0
Jul 30, 2025at LAATEX 6 − 3
Jul 29, 2025at LAALAA 8 − 5

LAA · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Jul 8at TEX13 − 1W
Jul 7at TEX3 − 8L
Jul 5vs BOS5 − 7L
Jul 4vs BOS1 − 8L
Jul 3vs BOS2 − 5L
Jul 2at SEA0 − 1L
Jun 30at SEA3 − 8L
Jun 29at SEA2 − 6L
Jun 28vs ATH4 − 1W
Jun 27vs ATH5 − 2W

TEX · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Jul 8vs LAA1 − 13L
Jul 7vs LAA8 − 3W
Jul 5vs DET3 − 6L
Jul 4vs DET0 − 3L
Jul 2vs DET10 − 4W
Jul 1at CLE4 − 9L
Jun 30at CLE4 − 2W
Jun 29at CLE6 − 3W
Jun 28at TOR3 − 2W
Jun 27at TOR7 − 4W