bayesRatings

Tigers at Rangers

MLB · Saturday, Jul 4 · 3:05 PM CT · Globe Life Field · Final DET 3 – TEX 0
← MLB / Jul 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
DET210000000360
TEX000000000031
Team box
DET·TEX
6
hits
3
1
home runs
0
1
walks
1
6
strikeouts
5
128
pitches thrown
126
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Riley GreeneDET2-4112
Ben MalgeriDET1-4001
Zach McKinstryDET1-4000
Kerry CarpenterDET1-4100
Colt KeithDET1-4100
Joc PedersonTEX1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Jack Flaherty (W)DET5.23005
Keider Montero (S)DET3.00010
Cal Quantrill (L)TEX5.03212

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TEX +3
DET +3
123456789
largest lead: TEX 0 · DET 3lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DET 48%, TEX 52% · Updated Jul 4

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
TEX 4.0 – 3.8 DET
Expected total
7.8
TigersThe matchupRangers
+110Our fair odds−110
3.8Expected runs4.0
−0.02Power rating+0.01
4.2Runs / game4.1
4.1Allowed / game4.2
7.9Hits / game8.2
1.17Home runs / game1.08
3.6Walks drawn / game3.3
38−50Season record45−43
4−6Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DET chance · TEX chance
Our model fair47.6%52.4%
Kalshi55.7%49.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DETDetroit Tigers+11048%−12655.7%———
TEXTexas Rangers−11052%+10149.7%———
Spreadabout even
DETDetroit Tigers+0.2our margin————
TEXTexas Rangers−0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.8
Over7.8our total————
Under7.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Detroit Tigers by 12 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 11 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 10 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 9 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 8 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 7 runs: 2%Detroit Tigers by 6 runs: 2%Detroit Tigers by 5 runs: 4%Detroit Tigers by 4 runs: 5%Detroit Tigers by 3 runs: 7%Detroit Tigers by 2 runs: 10%Detroit Tigers by 1 run: 15%Texas Rangers by 1 run: 16%Texas Rangers by 2 runs: 11%Texas Rangers by 3 runs: 8%Texas Rangers by 4 runs: 6%Texas Rangers by 5 runs: 4%Texas Rangers by 6 runs: 3%Texas Rangers by 7 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 8 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 9 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 10 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 11 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 12 runs: <1%
← DET wins byTEX wins by →
Texas Rangers wins by 2 or more36%
Texas Rangers wins by 3 or more26%
Detroit Tigers wins by 2 or more33%
Decided by one run31%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

7.8 expected
1 runs: 3%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 9%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 13%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: <1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 5.568%
Total over 7.547%
Total over 9.529%
Total from 6 to 939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
DETJack Flaherty SP · last 3 starts: 13.0 IP, 3.46 ERA, 17 Kstarted
TEXCal Quantrill RP · last 3 starts: 9.1 IP, 9.64 ERA, 6 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DET·TEX
Jul 2 at TEX
last game
Jul 2 vs DET
1 day
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
6
5th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 88+ games
DET·TEX
−0.02
rating (0 = average)
+0.01
4.2
runs / game
4.1
4.1
runs allowed / game
4.2
38−50
season record
45−43
23−21
home record
20−18
15−29
away record
25−25
L1
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
7−3
7.9
hits / game
8.2
1.17
home runs / game
1.08
3.6
walks drawn / game
3.3
8.7
batter strikeouts / game
8.4
8.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.5
0.44
errors / game
0.45

Rating Trend

DET · TEX · 101 days
Detroit TigersTexas Rangers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TEX 6−4
Jul 2at TEXTEX 10 − 4
May 3at DETDET 7 − 1
May 2at DETDET 5 − 1
May 1at DETTEX 5 − 4
Jul 20, 2025at TEXDET 2 − 1
Jul 19, 2025at TEXTEX 4 − 1
Jul 18, 2025at TEXTEX 2 − 0
May 11, 2025at DETTEX 6 − 1
May 10, 2025at DETTEX 10 − 3
May 9, 2025at DETDET 2 − 1

DET · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Jul 2at TEX4 − 10L
Jul 1at NYY6 − 2W
Jun 30at NYY9 − 3W
Jun 29at NYY7 − 3W
Jun 28vs HOU5 − 7L
Jun 27vs HOU6 − 8L
Jun 26vs HOU8 − 0W
Jun 25vs HOU1 − 2L
Jun 24vs NYY2 − 4L
Jun 23vs NYY3 − 4L

TEX · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Jul 2vs DET10 − 4W
Jul 1at CLE4 − 9L
Jun 30at CLE4 − 2W
Jun 29at CLE6 − 3W
Jun 28at TOR3 − 2W
Jun 27at TOR7 − 4W
Jun 26at TOR5 − 4W
Jun 25at TOR6 − 5W
Jun 24at MIA2 − 4L
Jun 23at MIA4 − 6L