bayesRatings

Red Sox at Angels

MLB · Sunday, Jul 5 · 8:30 PM CT · Angel Stadium · Final BOS 7 – LAA 5
← MLB / Jul 5

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
BOS0230002007100
LAA210000011591
Team box
BOS·LAA
10
hits
9
2
home runs
1
3
walks
1
11
strikeouts
13
138
pitches thrown
177
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Zach NetoLAA3-5212
Willson ContrerasBOS1-4113
Jarren DuranBOS2-3112
Jo AdellLAA3-4002
Masataka YoshidaBOS3-5001
Tsung-Che ChengBOS2-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Ranger SuarezBOS2.26305
Greg Weissert (W)BOS1.10002
Aroldis Chapman (S)BOS1.01102
Ryan Johnson (L)LAA4.06216

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAA +4
BOS +4
123456789
largest lead: LAA 2 · BOS 4lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BOS 55%, LAA 45% · Updated Jul 5

Expected margin
BOS by 0.9
Expected score
BOS 5.0 – 4.1 LAA
Expected total
9.1
Red SoxThe matchupAngels
−121Our fair odds+121
5.0Expected runs4.1
+0.02Power rating−0.23
4.0Runs / game4.4
4.0Allowed / game5.0
8.1Hits / game7.9
0.87Home runs / game1.14
2.9Walks drawn / game3.3
39−48Season record36−54
7−3Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BOS chance · LAA chance
Our model fair54.8%45.2%
Kalshi62.7%42.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:30 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BOSBoston Red Sox−12155%−16862.7%———
LAALos Angeles Angels+12145%+13442.7%———
SpreadBOS by 0.9
BOSBoston Red Sox−0.9our margin————
LAALos Angeles Angels+0.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.1
Over9.1our total————
Under9.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Boston Red Sox by 0.9 expected
Boston Red Sox by 14 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 13 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 12 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 11 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 10 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 9 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 8 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 7 runs: 3%Boston Red Sox by 6 runs: 4%Boston Red Sox by 5 runs: 5%Boston Red Sox by 4 runs: 7%Boston Red Sox by 3 runs: 8%Boston Red Sox by 2 runs: 10%Boston Red Sox by 1 run: 11%Los Angeles Angels by 1 run: 16%Los Angeles Angels by 2 runs: 9%Los Angeles Angels by 3 runs: 6%Los Angeles Angels by 4 runs: 4%Los Angeles Angels by 5 runs: 3%Los Angeles Angels by 6 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 7 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 8 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 9 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 10 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 11 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 14 runs: <1%
← BOS wins byLAA wins by →
Boston Red Sox wins by 2 or more44%
Boston Red Sox wins by 3 or more34%
Los Angeles Angels wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.1 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.559%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.526%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
BOSRanger Suarez SP · last 3 starts: 18.2 IP, 1.93 ERA, 22 Kstarted
LAARyan Johnson SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 3.38 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BOS·LAA
Jul 4 at LAA
last game
Jul 4 vs BOS
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 87+ games
BOS·LAA
+0.02
rating (0 = average)
−0.23
4.0
runs / game
4.4
4.0
runs allowed / game
5.0
39−48
season record
36−54
17−27
home record
21−24
22−21
away record
15−30
W2
streak
L5
7−3
last 10
4−6
8.1
hits / game
7.9
0.87
home runs / game
1.14
2.9
walks drawn / game
3.3
8.2
batter strikeouts / game
9.4
8.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.8
0.46
errors / game
0.63

Rating Trend

BOS · LAA · 102 days
Boston Red SoxLos Angeles Angels
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAA 5−5
Jul 4at LAABOS 8 − 1
Jul 3at LAABOS 5 − 2
Jun 25, 2025at LAALAA 5 − 2
Jun 24, 2025at LAALAA 3 − 2
Jun 23, 2025at LAALAA 9 − 5
Jun 4, 2025at BOSBOS 11 − 9
Jun 3, 2025at BOSLAA 4 − 3
Jun 2, 2025at BOSLAA 7 − 6
Apr 14, 2024at BOSBOS 5 − 4
Apr 13, 2024at BOSBOS 7 − 2

BOS · Last 10

7−3 · streak W2
Jul 4at LAA8 − 1W
Jul 3at LAA5 − 2W
Jul 1vs WSH2 − 10L
Jun 30vs WSH1 − 8L
Jun 29vs WSH6 − 3W
Jun 28vs NYY5 − 4W
Jun 27vs NYY4 − 1W
Jun 26vs NYY6 − 1W
Jun 25vs NYY6 − 3W
Jun 24at COL6 − 8L

LAA · Last 10

4−6 · streak L5
Jul 4vs BOS1 − 8L
Jul 3vs BOS2 − 5L
Jul 2at SEA0 − 1L
Jun 30at SEA3 − 8L
Jun 29at SEA2 − 6L
Jun 28vs ATH4 − 1W
Jun 27vs ATH5 − 2W
Jun 26vs ATH3 − 9L
Jun 24vs BAL7 − 6W
Jun 23vs BAL5 − 1W