bayesRatings

Red Sox at Angels

MLB · Saturday, Jul 4 · 8:38 PM CT · Angel Stadium · Final BOS 8 – LAA 1
← MLB / Jul 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
BOS300040010870
LAA010000000141
Team box
BOS·LAA
7
hits
4
2
home runs
1
6
walks
3
6
strikeouts
9
101
pitches thrown
183
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Willson ContrerasBOS1-5113
Romy GonzalezBOS1-5112
Josh LoweLAA1-3111
Ceddanne RafaelaBOS1-4101
Wilyer AbreuBOS1-3201
Andruw MonasterioBOS1-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Sonny Gray (W)BOS6.04127
Sam Aldegheri (L)LAA4.01342

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAA +7
BOS +7
123456789
largest lead: LAA 0 · BOS 7lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BOS 54%, LAA 46% · Updated Jul 4

Expected margin
BOS by 0.7
Expected score
BOS 4.9 – 4.2 LAA
Expected total
9.1
Red SoxThe matchupAngels
−117Our fair odds+117
4.9Expected runs4.2
+0.01Power rating−0.21
4.0Runs / game4.4
4.0Allowed / game5.0
8.2Hits / game8.0
0.86Home runs / game1.15
2.9Walks drawn / game3.3
38−48Season record36−53
7−3Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BOS chance · LAA chance
Our model fair53.9%46.1%
Kalshi64.6%39.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:38 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BOSBoston Red Sox−11754%−18364.6%———
LAALos Angeles Angels+11746%+15239.6%———
SpreadBOS by 0.7
BOSBoston Red Sox−0.7our margin————
LAALos Angeles Angels+0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.1
Over9.1our total————
Under9.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Boston Red Sox by 0.7 expected
Boston Red Sox by 14 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 13 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 12 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 11 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 10 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 9 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 8 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 7 runs: 3%Boston Red Sox by 6 runs: 4%Boston Red Sox by 5 runs: 5%Boston Red Sox by 4 runs: 6%Boston Red Sox by 3 runs: 8%Boston Red Sox by 2 runs: 10%Boston Red Sox by 1 run: 12%Los Angeles Angels by 1 run: 16%Los Angeles Angels by 2 runs: 9%Los Angeles Angels by 3 runs: 6%Los Angeles Angels by 4 runs: 5%Los Angeles Angels by 5 runs: 3%Los Angeles Angels by 6 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 7 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 8 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 9 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 10 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 11 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 14 runs: <1%
← BOS wins byLAA wins by →
Boston Red Sox wins by 2 or more42%
Boston Red Sox wins by 3 or more32%
Los Angeles Angels wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.1 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.559%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.526%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
BOSSonny Gray SP · last 3 starts: 21.1 IP, 1.69 ERA, 24 Kstarted
LAASam Aldegheri SP · last 3 starts: 12.2 IP, 8.53 ERA, 8 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BOS·LAA
Jul 3 at LAA
last game
Jul 3 vs BOS
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 86+ games
BOS·LAA
+0.01
rating (0 = average)
−0.21
4.0
runs / game
4.4
4.0
runs allowed / game
5.0
38−48
season record
36−53
17−27
home record
21−23
21−21
away record
15−30
W1
streak
L4
7−3
last 10
4−6
8.2
hits / game
8.0
0.86
home runs / game
1.15
2.9
walks drawn / game
3.3
8.2
batter strikeouts / game
9.4
8.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.9
0.47
errors / game
0.63

Rating Trend

BOS · LAA · 101 days
Boston Red SoxLos Angeles Angels
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAA 6−4
Jul 3at LAABOS 5 − 2
Jun 25, 2025at LAALAA 5 − 2
Jun 24, 2025at LAALAA 3 − 2
Jun 23, 2025at LAALAA 9 − 5
Jun 4, 2025at BOSBOS 11 − 9
Jun 3, 2025at BOSLAA 4 − 3
Jun 2, 2025at BOSLAA 7 − 6
Apr 14, 2024at BOSBOS 5 − 4
Apr 13, 2024at BOSBOS 7 − 2
Apr 12, 2024at BOSLAA 7 − 0

BOS · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Jul 3at LAA5 − 2W
Jul 1vs WSH2 − 10L
Jun 30vs WSH1 − 8L
Jun 29vs WSH6 − 3W
Jun 28vs NYY5 − 4W
Jun 27vs NYY4 − 1W
Jun 26vs NYY6 − 1W
Jun 25vs NYY6 − 3W
Jun 24at COL6 − 8L
Jun 23at COL5 − 2W

LAA · Last 10

4−6 · streak L4
Jul 3vs BOS2 − 5L
Jul 2at SEA0 − 1L
Jun 30at SEA3 − 8L
Jun 29at SEA2 − 6L
Jun 28vs ATH4 − 1W
Jun 27vs ATH5 − 2W
Jun 26vs ATH3 − 9L
Jun 24vs BAL7 − 6W
Jun 23vs BAL5 − 1W
Jun 22vs BAL1 − 6L