bayesRatings

Angels at Rangers

MLB · Wednesday, Jul 8 · 7:05 PM CT · Globe Life Field · Final LAA 13 – TEX 1
← MLB / Jul 8

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
LAA10024202213150
TEX000000010130
Team box
LAA·TEX
15
hits
3
3
home runs
1
2
walks
5
9
strikeouts
14
165
pitches thrown
155
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jo AdellLAA2-4325
Vaughn GrissomLAA4-5204
Mike TroutLAA1-4212
Kyle HigashiokaTEX1-1111
Jose SiriLAA2-5001
Zach NetoLAA3-5300
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Walbert UrenaLAA4.01053
Samy Natera Jr. (W)LAA2.00005
MacKenzie Gore (L)TEX5.09717

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TEX +12
LAA +12
123456789
largest lead: TEX 0 · LAA 12lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAA 42%, TEX 58% · Updated Jul 8

Expected margin
TEX by 1.1
Expected score
TEX 4.6 – 3.5 LAA
Expected total
8.2
AngelsThe matchupRangers
+136Our fair odds−136
3.5Expected runs4.6
−0.25Power rating+0.00
4.4Runs / game4.1
5.1Allowed / game4.2
8.0Hits / game8.2
1.13Home runs / game1.09
3.2Walks drawn / game3.3
36−56Season record46−45
2−8Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAA chance · TEX chance
Our model fair42.4%57.6%
Kalshi45.7%59.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LAALos Angeles Angels+13642%+11945.7%———
TEXTexas Rangers−13658%−14859.7%———
SpreadTEX by 1.1
LAALos Angeles Angels+1.1our margin————
TEXTexas Rangers−1.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.2
Over8.2our total————
Under8.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Texas Rangers by 1.1 expected
Los Angeles Angels by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 11 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 10 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 9 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 8 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 7 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 6 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 5 runs: 3%Los Angeles Angels by 4 runs: 4%Los Angeles Angels by 3 runs: 6%Los Angeles Angels by 2 runs: 9%Los Angeles Angels by 1 run: 17%Texas Rangers by 1 run: 12%Texas Rangers by 2 runs: 11%Texas Rangers by 3 runs: 9%Texas Rangers by 4 runs: 7%Texas Rangers by 5 runs: 5%Texas Rangers by 6 runs: 4%Texas Rangers by 7 runs: 3%Texas Rangers by 8 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 9 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 10 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 11 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 12 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 13 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 14 runs: <1%
← LAA wins byTEX wins by →
Texas Rangers wins by 2 or more46%
Texas Rangers wins by 3 or more34%
Los Angeles Angels wins by 2 or more25%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.2 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.563%
Total over 8.543%
Total over 10.526%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
LAAWalbert Urena SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 4.80 ERA, 17 Kstarted
TEXMacKenzie Gore SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 4.50 ERA, 18 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAA·TEX
Jul 7 at TEX
last game
Jul 7 vs LAA
0 days
days of rest
0 days
5
games in last 7 days
5
2nd straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 91+ games
LAA·TEX
−0.25
rating (0 = average)
+0.00
4.4
runs / game
4.1
5.1
runs allowed / game
4.2
36−56
season record
46−45
21−25
home record
21−20
15−31
away record
25−25
L7
streak
W1
2−8
last 10
7−3
8.0
hits / game
8.2
1.13
home runs / game
1.09
3.2
walks drawn / game
3.3
9.5
batter strikeouts / game
8.3
8.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.5
0.63
errors / game
0.46

Rating Trend

LAA · TEX · 105 days
Los Angeles AngelsTexas Rangers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TEX 4−6
Jul 7at TEXTEX 8 − 3
May 24at LAALAA 2 − 1
May 23at LAALAA 5 − 2
May 22at LAALAA 9 − 6
Aug 27, 2025at TEXTEX 20 − 3
Aug 26, 2025at TEXTEX 7 − 3
Aug 25, 2025at TEXLAA 4 − 0
Jul 30, 2025at LAATEX 6 − 3
Jul 29, 2025at LAALAA 8 − 5
Jul 28, 2025at LAALAA 6 − 4

LAA · Last 10

2−8 · streak L7
Jul 7at TEX3 − 8L
Jul 5vs BOS5 − 7L
Jul 4vs BOS1 − 8L
Jul 3vs BOS2 − 5L
Jul 2at SEA0 − 1L
Jun 30at SEA3 − 8L
Jun 29at SEA2 − 6L
Jun 28vs ATH4 − 1W
Jun 27vs ATH5 − 2W
Jun 26vs ATH3 − 9L

TEX · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Jul 7vs LAA8 − 3W
Jul 5vs DET3 − 6L
Jul 4vs DET0 − 3L
Jul 2vs DET10 − 4W
Jul 1at CLE4 − 9L
Jun 30at CLE4 − 2W
Jun 29at CLE6 − 3W
Jun 28at TOR3 − 2W
Jun 27at TOR7 − 4W
Jun 26at TOR5 − 4W