bayesRatings

Tigers at Rangers

MLB · Sunday, Jul 5 · 2:30 PM CT · Globe Life Field · Final DET 6 – TEX 3
← MLB / Jul 5

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
DET0002400006100
TEX001010010361
Team box
DET·TEX
10
hits
6
1
home runs
2
4
walks
2
10
strikeouts
5
117
pitches thrown
178
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Riley GreeneDET3-4114
Jake BurgerTEX1-4111
Ezequiel DuranTEX1-4111
Dillon DinglerDET1-5101
Kevin McGonigleDET2-4100
Brandon NimmoTEX1-4001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Casey Mize (W)DET6.25224
Kenley Jansen (S)DET1.00000
Kumar Rocker (L)TEX4.15314

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TEX +5
DET +5
123456789
largest lead: TEX 1 · DET 5lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DET 48%, TEX 52% · Updated Jul 5

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
TEX 4.0 – 3.8 DET
Expected total
7.7
TigersThe matchupRangers
+108Our fair odds−108
3.8Expected runs4.0
−0.01Power rating+0.00
4.2Runs / game4.1
4.1Allowed / game4.1
7.9Hits / game8.2
1.17Home runs / game1.07
3.6Walks drawn / game3.3
39−50Season record45−44
5−5Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DET chance · TEX chance
Our model fair48.1%51.9%
Kalshi56.7%47.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 2:30 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DETDetroit Tigers+10848%−13156.7%———
TEXTexas Rangers−10852%+10947.7%———
Spreadabout even
DETDetroit Tigers+0.2our margin————
TEXTexas Rangers−0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.7
Over7.7our total————
Under7.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Detroit Tigers by 12 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 11 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 10 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 9 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 8 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 7 runs: 2%Detroit Tigers by 6 runs: 2%Detroit Tigers by 5 runs: 4%Detroit Tigers by 4 runs: 5%Detroit Tigers by 3 runs: 7%Detroit Tigers by 2 runs: 10%Detroit Tigers by 1 run: 16%Texas Rangers by 1 run: 16%Texas Rangers by 2 runs: 11%Texas Rangers by 3 runs: 8%Texas Rangers by 4 runs: 6%Texas Rangers by 5 runs: 4%Texas Rangers by 6 runs: 3%Texas Rangers by 7 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 8 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 9 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 10 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 11 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 12 runs: <1%
← DET wins byTEX wins by →
Texas Rangers wins by 2 or more36%
Texas Rangers wins by 3 or more26%
Detroit Tigers wins by 2 or more33%
Decided by one run31%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

7.7 expected
1 runs: 3%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 9%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 13%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: <1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 5.567%
Total over 7.546%
Total over 9.528%
Total from 6 to 939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
DETCasey Mize SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 3.63 ERA, 19 Kstarted
TEXKumar Rocker SP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 5.14 ERA, 12 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DET·TEX
Jul 4 at TEX
last game
Jul 4 vs DET
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
6th straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 89+ games
DET·TEX
−0.01
rating (0 = average)
+0.00
4.2
runs / game
4.1
4.1
runs allowed / game
4.1
39−50
season record
45−44
23−21
home record
20−19
16−29
away record
25−25
W1
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
7−3
7.9
hits / game
8.2
1.17
home runs / game
1.07
3.6
walks drawn / game
3.3
8.7
batter strikeouts / game
8.3
8.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.5
0.44
errors / game
0.46

Rating Trend

DET · TEX · 102 days
Detroit TigersTexas Rangers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TEX 6−4
Jul 4at TEXDET 3 − 0
Jul 2at TEXTEX 10 − 4
May 3at DETDET 7 − 1
May 2at DETDET 5 − 1
May 1at DETTEX 5 − 4
Jul 20, 2025at TEXDET 2 − 1
Jul 19, 2025at TEXTEX 4 − 1
Jul 18, 2025at TEXTEX 2 − 0
May 11, 2025at DETTEX 6 − 1
May 10, 2025at DETTEX 10 − 3

DET · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Jul 4at TEX3 − 0W
Jul 2at TEX4 − 10L
Jul 1at NYY6 − 2W
Jun 30at NYY9 − 3W
Jun 29at NYY7 − 3W
Jun 28vs HOU5 − 7L
Jun 27vs HOU6 − 8L
Jun 26vs HOU8 − 0W
Jun 25vs HOU1 − 2L
Jun 24vs NYY2 − 4L

TEX · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Jul 4vs DET0 − 3L
Jul 2vs DET10 − 4W
Jul 1at CLE4 − 9L
Jun 30at CLE4 − 2W
Jun 29at CLE6 − 3W
Jun 28at TOR3 − 2W
Jun 27at TOR7 − 4W
Jun 26at TOR5 − 4W
Jun 25at TOR6 − 5W
Jun 24at MIA2 − 4L