bayesRatings

Angels at Rangers

MLB · Tuesday, Jul 7 · 7:05 PM CT · Globe Life Field · Final LAA 3 – TEX 8
← MLB / Jul 7

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
LAA200000100390
TEX020000158110
Team box
LAA·TEX
9
hits
11
0
home runs
2
2
walks
2
11
strikeouts
7
153
pitches thrown
150
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Justin FoscueTEX2-2212
Alejandro OsunaTEX1-3213
Nicky LopezTEX1-1002
Jorge SolerLAA1-4101
Josh LoweLAA1-4001
Jo AdellLAA2-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Jose SorianoLAA6.02224
Sam Bachman (L)LAA0.26500
Jacob deGromTEX5.05227
Peyton Gray (W)TEX1.01002

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TEX +5
LAA +5
123456789
largest lead: TEX 5 · LAA 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAA 43%, TEX 57% · Updated Jul 7

Expected margin
TEX by 1.1
Expected score
TEX 4.6 – 3.5 LAA
Expected total
8.2
AngelsThe matchupRangers
+133Our fair odds−133
3.5Expected runs4.6
−0.23Power rating−0.00
4.4Runs / game4.1
5.0Allowed / game4.2
8.0Hits / game8.1
1.14Home runs / game1.08
3.2Walks drawn / game3.3
36−55Season record45−45
3−7Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAA chance · TEX chance
Our model fair43.0%57.0%
Kalshi42.7%61.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LAALos Angeles Angels+13343%+13442.7%———
TEXTexas Rangers−13357%−16161.7%———
SpreadTEX by 1.1
LAALos Angeles Angels+1.1our margin————
TEXTexas Rangers−1.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.2
Over8.2our total————
Under8.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Texas Rangers by 1.1 expected
Los Angeles Angels by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 11 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 10 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 9 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 8 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 7 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 6 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 5 runs: 3%Los Angeles Angels by 4 runs: 4%Los Angeles Angels by 3 runs: 6%Los Angeles Angels by 2 runs: 9%Los Angeles Angels by 1 run: 17%Texas Rangers by 1 run: 12%Texas Rangers by 2 runs: 11%Texas Rangers by 3 runs: 9%Texas Rangers by 4 runs: 7%Texas Rangers by 5 runs: 5%Texas Rangers by 6 runs: 4%Texas Rangers by 7 runs: 3%Texas Rangers by 8 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 9 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 10 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 11 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 12 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 13 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 14 runs: <1%
← LAA wins byTEX wins by →
Texas Rangers wins by 2 or more46%
Texas Rangers wins by 3 or more34%
Los Angeles Angels wins by 2 or more25%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.2 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.563%
Total over 8.543%
Total over 10.526%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
LAAJose Soriano SP · last 3 starts: 13.0 IP, 7.62 ERA, 19 Kstarted
TEXJacob deGrom SP · last 3 starts: 19.0 IP, 4.74 ERA, 26 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAA·TEX
Jul 5 vs BOS
last game
Jul 5 vs DET
1 day
days of rest
1 day
5
games in last 7 days
5
road after a home game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 90+ games
LAA·TEX
−0.23
rating (0 = average)
−0.00
4.4
runs / game
4.1
5.0
runs allowed / game
4.2
36−55
season record
45−45
21−25
home record
20−20
15−30
away record
25−25
L6
streak
L2
3−7
last 10
7−3
8.0
hits / game
8.1
1.14
home runs / game
1.08
3.2
walks drawn / game
3.3
9.4
batter strikeouts / game
8.3
8.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.5
0.64
errors / game
0.47

Rating Trend

LAA · TEX · 104 days
Los Angeles AngelsTexas Rangers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TEX 4−6
May 24at LAALAA 2 − 1
May 23at LAALAA 5 − 2
May 22at LAALAA 9 − 6
Aug 27, 2025at TEXTEX 20 − 3
Aug 26, 2025at TEXTEX 7 − 3
Aug 25, 2025at TEXLAA 4 − 0
Jul 30, 2025at LAATEX 6 − 3
Jul 29, 2025at LAALAA 8 − 5
Jul 28, 2025at LAALAA 6 − 4
Jul 10, 2025at LAATEX 11 − 4

LAA · Last 10

3−7 · streak L6
Jul 5vs BOS5 − 7L
Jul 4vs BOS1 − 8L
Jul 3vs BOS2 − 5L
Jul 2at SEA0 − 1L
Jun 30at SEA3 − 8L
Jun 29at SEA2 − 6L
Jun 28vs ATH4 − 1W
Jun 27vs ATH5 − 2W
Jun 26vs ATH3 − 9L
Jun 24vs BAL7 − 6W

TEX · Last 10

7−3 · streak L2
Jul 5vs DET3 − 6L
Jul 4vs DET0 − 3L
Jul 2vs DET10 − 4W
Jul 1at CLE4 − 9L
Jun 30at CLE4 − 2W
Jun 29at CLE6 − 3W
Jun 28at TOR3 − 2W
Jun 27at TOR7 − 4W
Jun 26at TOR5 − 4W
Jun 25at TOR6 − 5W