bayesRatings

Astros at Nationals

MLB · Tuesday, Jul 7 · 5:45 PM CT · Nationals Park · Final HOU 6 – WSH 3
← MLB / Jul 7

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
HOU010301010661
WSH1010000013110
Team box
HOU·WSH
6
hits
11
1
home runs
2
7
walks
4
8
strikeouts
10
164
pitches thrown
163
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
James WoodWSH2-4211
Nick AllenHOU1-2003
Jose AltuveHOU1-5111
Jose TenaWSH1-1111
Christian VazquezHOU1-3002
Luis Garcia Jr.WSH2-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Tatsuya ImaiHOU3.24233
Steven Okert (W)HOU1.11003
Josh Hader (S)HOU0.11011
Andrew Alvarez (L)WSH5.24553

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
WSH +4
HOU +4
123456789
largest lead: WSH 1 · HOU 4lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was HOU 49%, WSH 51% · Updated Jul 7

Expected margin
HOU by 0.5
Expected score
HOU 5.8 – 5.2 WSH
Expected total
11.0
AstrosThe matchupNationals
+103Our fair odds−103
5.8Expected runs5.2
−0.03Power rating−0.06
4.6Runs / game5.4
5.0Allowed / game5.3
8.1Hits / game8.6
1.34Home runs / game1.39
3.3Walks drawn / game3.4
45−48Season record47−45
5−5Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
HOU chance · WSH chance
Our model fair49.3%50.7%
Kalshi49.7%54.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:45 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
HOUHouston Astros+10349%+10149.7%———
WSHWashington Nationals−10351%−12154.7%———
SpreadHOU by 0.5
HOUHouston Astros−0.5our margin————
WSHWashington Nationals+0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 11.0
Over11.0our total————
Under11.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Houston Astros by 0.5 expected
Houston Astros by 16 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 15 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 14 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 13 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 12 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 11 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 10 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 9 runs: 2%Houston Astros by 8 runs: 2%Houston Astros by 7 runs: 3%Houston Astros by 6 runs: 4%Houston Astros by 5 runs: 5%Houston Astros by 4 runs: 6%Houston Astros by 3 runs: 7%Houston Astros by 2 runs: 9%Houston Astros by 1 run: 9%Washington Nationals by 1 run: 15%Washington Nationals by 2 runs: 8%Washington Nationals by 3 runs: 6%Washington Nationals by 4 runs: 5%Washington Nationals by 5 runs: 4%Washington Nationals by 6 runs: 3%Washington Nationals by 7 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 8 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 9 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 10 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 11 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 12 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 13 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 14 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 15 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 16 runs: <1%
← HOU wins byWSH wins by →
Houston Astros wins by 2 or more42%
Houston Astros wins by 3 or more33%
Washington Nationals wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

11.0 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 3%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 7%6 runs: 5%7 runs: 9%8 runs: 6%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 7%14 runs: 5%15 runs: 5%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: 1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%27 runs: <1%28 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 9.556%
Total over 11.541%
Total over 13.528%
Total from 10 to 1328%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
HOUTatsuya Imai SP · last 3 starts: 13.1 IP, 5.40 ERA, 23 Kstarted
WSHAndrew Alvarez SP · last 3 starts: 12.1 IP, 2.92 ERA, 16 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
HOU·WSH
Jul 6 at WSH
last game
Jul 6 vs HOU
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 92+ games
HOU·WSH
−0.03
rating (0 = average)
−0.06
4.6
runs / game
5.4
5.0
runs allowed / game
5.3
45−48
season record
47−45
23−24
home record
19−27
22−24
away record
28−18
L1
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
6−4
8.1
hits / game
8.6
1.34
home runs / game
1.39
3.3
walks drawn / game
3.4
8.2
batter strikeouts / game
8.3
8.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.9
0.43
errors / game
0.78

Rating Trend

HOU · WSH · 104 days
Houston AstrosWashington Nationals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · WSH 5−5
Jul 6at WSHWSH 12 − 11
Jul 30, 2025at HOUHOU 9 − 1
Jul 29, 2025at HOUHOU 7 − 4
Jul 28, 2025at HOUWSH 2 − 1
Apr 21, 2024at WSHWSH 6 − 0
Apr 20, 2024at WSHWSH 5 − 4
Apr 19, 2024at WSHHOU 5 − 3
Jun 15, 2023at HOUWSH 4 − 1
Jun 14, 2023at HOUHOU 5 − 4
Jun 13, 2023at HOUHOU 6 − 1

HOU · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Jul 6at WSH11 − 12L
Jul 5vs TB2 − 0W
Jul 4vs TB10 − 8W
Jul 3vs TB1 − 3L
Jul 1vs MIN3 − 8L
Jun 30vs MIN6 − 4W
Jun 29vs MIN4 − 5L
Jun 28at DET7 − 5W
Jun 27at DET8 − 6W
Jun 26at DET0 − 8L

WSH · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Jul 6vs HOU12 − 11W
Jul 5vs PIT5 − 11L
Jul 4vs PIT1 − 7L
Jul 3vs PIT9 − 5W
Jul 1at BOS10 − 2W
Jun 30at BOS8 − 1W
Jun 29at BOS3 − 6L
Jun 28at BAL6 − 4W
Jun 27at BAL4 − 3W
Jun 26at BAL1 − 3L