bayesRatings

Astros at Rangers

MLB · Sunday, Jul 12 · 1:35 PM CT · Globe Life Field · Final HOU 5 – TEX 6
← MLB / Jul 12

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
HOU000100310581
TEX0300100116110
Team box
HOU·TEX
8
hits
11
2
home runs
1
5
walks
5
8
strikeouts
8
149
pitches thrown
156
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Brandon NimmoTEX3-5002
Jose AltuveHOU1-4111
Cam SmithHOU1-4111
Kyle HigashiokaTEX1-4111
Isaac ParedesHOU1-4002
Joc PedersonTEX1-3002
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Cristian JavierHOU3.04334
Josh Hader (L)HOU0.03100
MacKenzie GoreTEX4.02114
Jacob Latz (W)TEX1.01010

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TEX +3
HOU +3
123456789
largest lead: TEX 3 · HOU 1lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was HOU 48%, TEX 52% · Updated Jul 12

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
TEX 4.3 – 3.9 HOU
Expected total
8.2
AstrosThe matchupRangers
+109Our fair odds−109
3.9Expected runs4.3
−0.03Power rating−0.01
4.6Runs / game4.1
5.1Allowed / game4.3
8.1Hits / game8.1
1.35Home runs / game1.14
3.3Walks drawn / game3.3
47−50Season record48−47
5−5Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
HOU chance · TEX chance
Our model fair48.0%52.0%
Kalshi45.7%58.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 1:35 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
HOUHouston Astros+10948%+11945.7%———
TEXTexas Rangers−10952%−14258.7%———
Spreadabout even
HOUHouston Astros+0.4our margin————
TEXTexas Rangers−0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.2
Over8.2our total————
Under8.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Houston Astros by 13 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 12 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 11 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 10 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 9 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 8 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 7 runs: 2%Houston Astros by 6 runs: 2%Houston Astros by 5 runs: 3%Houston Astros by 4 runs: 5%Houston Astros by 3 runs: 7%Houston Astros by 2 runs: 10%Houston Astros by 1 run: 16%Texas Rangers by 1 run: 13%Texas Rangers by 2 runs: 11%Texas Rangers by 3 runs: 8%Texas Rangers by 4 runs: 6%Texas Rangers by 5 runs: 4%Texas Rangers by 6 runs: 3%Texas Rangers by 7 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 8 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 9 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 10 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 11 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 12 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 13 runs: <1%
← HOU wins byTEX wins by →
Texas Rangers wins by 2 or more39%
Texas Rangers wins by 3 or more28%
Houston Astros wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.2 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.563%
Total over 8.543%
Total over 10.526%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
HOUCristian Javier SP · last 3 starts: 9.1 IP, 12.54 ERA, 4 Kstarted
TEXMacKenzie Gore SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 7.94 ERA, 19 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
HOU·TEX
Jul 11 at TEX
last game
Jul 11 vs HOU
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
6th straight road game
home / road
9th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 95+ games
HOU·TEX
−0.03
rating (0 = average)
−0.01
4.6
runs / game
4.1
5.1
runs allowed / game
4.3
47−50
season record
48−47
23−24
home record
23−22
24−26
away record
25−25
W1
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
5−5
8.1
hits / game
8.1
1.35
home runs / game
1.14
3.3
walks drawn / game
3.3
8.1
batter strikeouts / game
8.4
8.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.5
0.42
errors / game
0.46

Rating Trend

HOU · TEX · 109 days
Houston AstrosTexas Rangers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TEX 3−7
Jul 11at TEXHOU 9 − 3
Jul 10at TEXTEX 7 − 3
May 28at TEXHOU 5 − 1
May 27at TEXHOU 4 − 3
May 26at TEXTEX 10 − 7
May 25at TEXHOU 9 − 0
May 17at HOUTEX 8 − 0
May 16at HOUHOU 4 − 1
May 15at HOUHOU 2 − 0
Sep 17, 2025at HOUHOU 5 − 2

HOU · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Jul 11at TEX9 − 3W
Jul 10at TEX3 − 7L
Jul 8at WSH2 − 8L
Jul 7at WSH6 − 3W
Jul 6at WSH11 − 12L
Jul 5vs TB2 − 0W
Jul 4vs TB10 − 8W
Jul 3vs TB1 − 3L
Jul 1vs MIN3 − 8L
Jun 30vs MIN6 − 4W

TEX · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Jul 11vs HOU3 − 9L
Jul 10vs HOU7 − 3W
Jul 9vs LAA7 − 6W
Jul 8vs LAA1 − 13L
Jul 7vs LAA8 − 3W
Jul 5vs DET3 − 6L
Jul 4vs DET0 − 3L
Jul 2vs DET10 − 4W
Jul 1at CLE4 − 9L
Jun 30at CLE4 − 2W