bayesRatings

Padres at Royals

MLB · Sunday, Jul 19 · 1:10 PM CT · Kauffman Stadium · Final SD 19 – KC 2
← MLB / Jul 19

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SD04210105619191
KC101000000281
Team box
SD·KC
19
hits
8
5
home runs
1
6
walks
2
4
strikeouts
7
120
pitches thrown
207
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jackson MerrillSD4-6224
Ty FranceSD2-6225
Fernando Tatis Jr.SD2-5314
Sung-Mun SongSD3-3202
Jac CaglianoneKC2-4211
Jase BowenSD2-5202
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
German MarquezSD3.05222
Yuki Matsui (W)SD2.00003
Noah Cameron (L)KC5.09721

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
KC +17
SD +17
123456789
largest lead: KC 1 · SD 17lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SD 52%, KC 48% · Updated Jul 19

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
KC 4.3 – 4.3 SD
Expected total
8.7
PadresThe matchupRoyals
−106Our fair odds+106
4.3Expected runs4.3
−0.00Power rating−0.12
3.9Runs / game4.3
4.4Allowed / game5.1
7.4Hits / game8.3
1.03Home runs / game1.01
3.4Walks drawn / game3.2
48−50Season record40−59
5−5Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SD chance · KC chance
Our model fair51.5%48.5%
Kalshi50.7%53.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 1:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SDSan Diego Padres−10652%−10350.7%———
KCKansas City Royals+10648%−11653.7%———
Spreadabout even
SDSan Diego PadresPKour margin————
KCKansas City RoyalsPKour margin————
Totalwe expect 8.7
Over8.7our total————
Under8.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
San Diego Padres by 12 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 11 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 10 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 9 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 8 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 7 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 6 runs: 3%San Diego Padres by 5 runs: 4%San Diego Padres by 4 runs: 5%San Diego Padres by 3 runs: 7%San Diego Padres by 2 runs: 10%San Diego Padres by 1 run: 16%Kansas City Royals by 1 run: 13%Kansas City Royals by 2 runs: 10%Kansas City Royals by 3 runs: 7%Kansas City Royals by 4 runs: 6%Kansas City Royals by 5 runs: 4%Kansas City Royals by 6 runs: 3%Kansas City Royals by 7 runs: 2%Kansas City Royals by 8 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 9 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 10 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 11 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 12 runs: <1%
← SD wins byKC wins by →
Kansas City Royals wins by 2 or more36%
Kansas City Royals wins by 3 or more26%
San Diego Padres wins by 2 or more35%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.7 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.567%
Total over 8.547%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SDGerman Marquez SP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 6.43 ERA, 10 Kstarted
KCNoah Cameron SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 6.89 ERA, 16 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SD·KC
Jul 18 at KC
last game
Jul 18 vs SD
0 days
days of rest
0 days
3
games in last 7 days
3
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 98+ games
SD·KC
−0.00
rating (0 = average)
−0.12
3.9
runs / game
4.3
4.4
runs allowed / game
5.1
48−50
season record
40−59
27−24
home record
23−26
21−26
away record
17−33
L2
streak
W2
5−5
last 10
5−5
7.4
hits / game
8.3
1.03
home runs / game
1.01
3.4
walks drawn / game
3.2
8.3
batter strikeouts / game
8.1
8.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.6
0.38
errors / game
0.47

Rating Trend

SD · KC · 113 days
San Diego PadresKansas City Royals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · KC 6−4
Jul 18at KCKC 6 − 1
Jul 17at KCKC 7 − 6
Jun 22, 2025at SDSD 3 − 2
Jun 21, 2025at SDSD 5 − 1
Jun 20, 2025at SDKC 6 − 5
Jun 2, 2024at KCKC 4 − 3
Jun 1, 2024at KCSD 7 − 3
May 31, 2024at KCSD 11 − 8
May 17, 2023at SDKC 4 − 3
May 16, 2023at SDKC 5 − 4

SD · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Jul 18at KC1 − 6L
Jul 17at KC6 − 7L
Jul 12vs TOR5 − 4W
Jul 11vs TOR8 − 7W
Jul 10vs TOR3 − 5L
Jul 9vs ARI1 − 3L
Jul 8vs ARI10 − 4W
Jul 7vs ARI4 − 1W
Jul 6vs ARI0 − 8L
Jul 5at LAD5 − 2W

KC · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Jul 18vs SD6 − 1W
Jul 17vs SD7 − 6W
Jul 12at BAL2 − 8L
Jul 11at BAL1 − 6L
Jul 10at BAL3 − 5L
Jul 9at NYM3 − 7L
Jul 8at NYM2 − 6L
Jul 7at NYM16 − 12W
Jul 6vs PHI15 − 1W
Jul 5vs PHI5 − 2W