bayesRatings

Padres at Braves

MLB · Thursday, Jul 23 · 11:15 AM CT · Truist Park · Final SD 5 – ATL 6
← MLB / Jul 23

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SD030000020591
ATL01040010690
Team box
SD·ATL
9
hits
9
1
home runs
4
1
walks
0
15
strikeouts
8
126
pitches thrown
147
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Dominic SmithATL1-3113
Ozzie AlbiesATL2-4111
Michael Harris IIATL2-4211
Ty FranceSD1-4112
Luis RengifoSD2-5002
Drake BaldwinATL1-4111
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Kyle HartSD1.00001
Griffin Canning (L)SD2.25404
Chris Sale (W)ATL6.053111
Raisel Iglesias (S)ATL1.02002

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATL +3
SD +3
123456789
largest lead: ATL 3 · SD 3lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SD 46%, ATL 54% · Updated Jul 23

Expected margin
ATL by 0.7
Expected score
ATL 4.6 – 3.9 SD
Expected total
8.6
PadresThe matchupBraves
+118Our fair odds−118
3.9Expected runs4.6
+0.02Power rating+0.12
4.1Runs / game5.0
4.4Allowed / game3.9
7.5Hits / game8.5
1.12Home runs / game1.31
3.4Walks drawn / game3.1
50−52Season record59−42
4−6Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SD chance · ATL chance
Our model fair45.9%54.1%
Kalshi32.5%72.4%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 11:15 AM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SDSan Diego Padres+11846%+20832.5%———
ATLAtlanta Braves−11854%−26372.4%———
SpreadATL by 0.7
SDSan Diego Padres+0.7our margin————
ATLAtlanta Braves−0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.6
Over8.6our total————
Under8.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Atlanta Braves by 0.7 expected
San Diego Padres by 13 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 12 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 11 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 10 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 9 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 8 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 7 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 6 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 5 runs: 3%San Diego Padres by 4 runs: 5%San Diego Padres by 3 runs: 6%San Diego Padres by 2 runs: 9%San Diego Padres by 1 run: 16%Atlanta Braves by 1 run: 12%Atlanta Braves by 2 runs: 11%Atlanta Braves by 3 runs: 8%Atlanta Braves by 4 runs: 6%Atlanta Braves by 5 runs: 5%Atlanta Braves by 6 runs: 4%Atlanta Braves by 7 runs: 3%Atlanta Braves by 8 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 9 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 10 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 11 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 12 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 13 runs: <1%
← SD wins byATL wins by →
Atlanta Braves wins by 2 or more42%
Atlanta Braves wins by 3 or more31%
San Diego Padres wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.6 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.566%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SDKyle Hart RP · last 3 starts: 11.0 IP, 6.55 ERA, 9 Kstarted
ATLChris Sale SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 1.80 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SD·ATL
Jul 22 at ATL
last game
Jul 22 vs SD
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
7th straight road game
home / road
7th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 101+ games
SD·ATL
+0.02
rating (0 = average)
+0.12
4.1
runs / game
5.0
4.4
runs allowed / game
3.9
50−52
season record
59−42
27−24
home record
31−20
23−28
away record
28−22
L1
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
6−4
7.5
hits / game
8.5
1.12
home runs / game
1.31
3.4
walks drawn / game
3.1
8.3
batter strikeouts / game
8.1
8.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.4
0.38
errors / game
0.45

Rating Trend

SD · ATL · 117 days
San Diego PadresAtlanta Braves
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATL 3−7
Jul 22at ATLATL 7 − 6
Jul 21at ATLSD 8 − 3
Jul 20at ATLATL 3 − 2
Jun 24at SDSD 5 − 2
Jun 23at SDSD 7 − 6
Jun 22at SDSD 1 − 0
May 25, 2025at ATLSD 5 − 3
May 24, 2025at ATLATL 7 − 1
May 23, 2025at ATLSD 2 − 1
Mar 30, 2025at SDSD 5 − 0

SD · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Jul 22at ATL6 − 7L
Jul 21at ATL8 − 3W
Jul 20at ATL2 − 3L
Jul 19at KC19 − 2W
Jul 18at KC1 − 6L
Jul 17at KC6 − 7L
Jul 12vs TOR5 − 4W
Jul 11vs TOR8 − 7W
Jul 10vs TOR3 − 5L
Jul 9vs ARI1 − 3L

ATL · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Jul 22vs SD7 − 6W
Jul 21vs SD3 − 8L
Jul 20vs SD3 − 2W
Jul 19vs TEX8 − 5W
Jul 18vs TEX6 − 7L
Jul 17vs TEX15 − 1W
Jul 12at STL4 − 3W
Jul 11at STL1 − 4L
Jul 10at STL1 − 2L
Jul 9at PIT10 − 5W