bayesRatings

Rangers at Braves

MLB · Friday, Jul 17 · 6:15 PM CT · Truist Park · Final TEX 1 – ATL 15
← MLB / Jul 17

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TEX000000010150
ATL0204204315190
Team box
TEX·ATL
5
hits
19
0
home runs
3
0
walks
6
7
strikeouts
5
198
pitches thrown
123
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Drake BaldwinATL3-4215
Michael Harris IIATL2-6103
Matt OlsonATL2-3211
Austin RileyATL2-5211
Ozzie AlbiesATL2-4101
Mauricio DubonATL2-5001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Cal Quantrill (L)TEX4.011613
Chris Sale (W)ATL7.02006

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATL +14
TEX +14
123456789
largest lead: ATL 14 · TEX 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TEX 46%, ATL 54% · Updated Jul 17

Expected margin
ATL by 0.6
Expected score
ATL 4.5 – 3.9 TEX
Expected total
8.4
RangersThe matchupBraves
+117Our fair odds−117
3.9Expected runs4.5
+0.00Power rating+0.10
4.2Runs / game4.8
4.3Allowed / game3.9
8.2Hits / game8.4
1.14Home runs / game1.27
3.3Walks drawn / game3.0
49−47Season record55−40
5−5Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TEX chance · ATL chance
Our model fair46.0%54.0%
Kalshi35.6%68.5%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TEXTexas Rangers+11746%+18135.6%———
ATLAtlanta Braves−11754%−21868.5%———
SpreadATL by 0.6
TEXTexas Rangers+0.6our margin————
ATLAtlanta Braves−0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.4
Over8.4our total————
Under8.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Atlanta Braves by 0.6 expected
Texas Rangers by 13 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 12 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 11 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 10 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 9 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 8 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 7 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 6 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 5 runs: 3%Texas Rangers by 4 runs: 5%Texas Rangers by 3 runs: 6%Texas Rangers by 2 runs: 9%Texas Rangers by 1 run: 16%Atlanta Braves by 1 run: 13%Atlanta Braves by 2 runs: 11%Atlanta Braves by 3 runs: 8%Atlanta Braves by 4 runs: 6%Atlanta Braves by 5 runs: 5%Atlanta Braves by 6 runs: 3%Atlanta Braves by 7 runs: 3%Atlanta Braves by 8 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 9 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 10 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 11 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 12 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 13 runs: <1%
← TEX wins byATL wins by →
Atlanta Braves wins by 2 or more41%
Atlanta Braves wins by 3 or more30%
Texas Rangers wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.4 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.545%
Total over 10.528%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TEXCal Quantrill RP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 1.80 ERA, 8 Kstarted
ATLChris Sale SP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 2.57 ERA, 18 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TEX·ATL
Jul 12 vs HOU
last game
Jul 12 at STL
4 days
days of rest
4 days
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 95+ games
TEX·ATL
+0.00
rating (0 = average)
+0.10
4.2
runs / game
4.8
4.3
runs allowed / game
3.9
49−47
season record
55−40
24−22
home record
27−18
25−25
away record
28−22
W1
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
5−5
8.2
hits / game
8.4
1.14
home runs / game
1.27
3.3
walks drawn / game
3.0
8.4
batter strikeouts / game
8.1
8.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.5
0.46
errors / game
0.44

Rating Trend

TEX · ATL · 111 days
Texas RangersAtlanta Braves
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATL 4−6
Jul 27, 2025at TEXTEX 8 − 1
Jul 26, 2025at TEXTEX 6 − 5
Jul 25, 2025at TEXTEX 8 − 3
Apr 21, 2024at ATLTEX 6 − 4
Apr 20, 2024at ATLATL 5 − 2
Apr 19, 2024at ATLATL 8 − 3
May 17, 2023at TEXATL 6 − 5
May 16, 2023at TEXTEX 7 − 4
May 15, 2023at TEXATL 12 − 0
May 1, 2022at TEXTEX 7 − 3

TEX · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Jul 12vs HOU6 − 5W
Jul 11vs HOU3 − 9L
Jul 10vs HOU7 − 3W
Jul 9vs LAA7 − 6W
Jul 8vs LAA1 − 13L
Jul 7vs LAA8 − 3W
Jul 5vs DET3 − 6L
Jul 4vs DET0 − 3L
Jul 2vs DET10 − 4W
Jul 1at CLE4 − 9L

ATL · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Jul 12at STL4 − 3W
Jul 11at STL1 − 4L
Jul 10at STL1 − 2L
Jul 9at PIT10 − 5W
Jul 8at PIT3 − 0W
Jul 7at PIT4 − 12L
Jul 6vs NYM6 − 7L
Jul 5vs NYM9 − 10L
Jul 4vs NYM14 − 3W
Jul 3vs NYM5 − 3W