bayesRatings

Braves at Cardinals

MLB · Saturday, Jul 11 · 6:15 PM CT · Busch Stadium · Final ATL 1 – STL 4
← MLB / Jul 11

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ATL000000100160
STL30010000450
Team box
ATL·STL
6
hits
5
1
home runs
1
2
walks
1
11
strikeouts
6
132
pitches thrown
117
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Lars NootbaarSTL1-2213
Mauricio DubonATL1-4111
Blaze JordanSTL1-3001
Matt OlsonATL1-4000
Austin RileyATL1-4000
Eli WhiteATL1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Reynaldo Lopez (L)ATL5.05413
Matthew Liberatore (W)STL6.04016
Riley O'Brien (S)STL1.00011

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
STL +4
ATL +4
123456789
largest lead: STL 4 · ATL 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATL 51%, STL 49% · Updated Jul 11

Expected margin
ATL by 0.6
Expected score
ATL 4.7 – 4.1 STL
Expected total
8.8
BravesThe matchupCardinals
−104Our fair odds+104
4.7Expected runs4.1
+0.10Power rating+0.01
4.9Runs / game4.5
3.9Allowed / game4.5
8.4Hits / game8.2
1.29Home runs / game1.14
3.0Walks drawn / game3.2
54−39Season record49−44
5−5Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATL chance · STL chance
Our model fair50.9%49.1%
Kalshi51.7%52.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATLAtlanta Braves−10451%−10751.8%———
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+10449%−11252.7%———
SpreadATL by 0.6
ATLAtlanta Braves−0.6our margin————
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.8
Over8.8our total————
Under8.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Atlanta Braves by 0.6 expected
Atlanta Braves by 14 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 13 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 12 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 11 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 10 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 9 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 8 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 7 runs: 3%Atlanta Braves by 6 runs: 4%Atlanta Braves by 5 runs: 5%Atlanta Braves by 4 runs: 6%Atlanta Braves by 3 runs: 8%Atlanta Braves by 2 runs: 10%Atlanta Braves by 1 run: 11%St. Louis Cardinals by 1 run: 17%St. Louis Cardinals by 2 runs: 9%St. Louis Cardinals by 3 runs: 6%St. Louis Cardinals by 4 runs: 5%St. Louis Cardinals by 5 runs: 3%St. Louis Cardinals by 6 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 7 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 8 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 9 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 10 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 11 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 12 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 13 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 14 runs: <1%
← ATL wins bySTL wins by →
Atlanta Braves wins by 2 or more42%
Atlanta Braves wins by 3 or more31%
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.8 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.568%
Total over 8.548%
Total over 10.531%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ATLReynaldo Lopez RP · last 3 starts: 13.0 IP, 2.08 ERA, 12 Kstarted
STLMatthew Liberatore SP · last 3 starts: 15.1 IP, 5.87 ERA, 15 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATL·STL
Jul 10 at STL
last game
Jul 10 vs ATL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
8
5th straight road game
home / road
7th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 93+ games
ATL·STL
+0.10
rating (0 = average)
+0.01
4.9
runs / game
4.5
3.9
runs allowed / game
4.5
54−39
season record
49−44
27−18
home record
25−25
27−21
away record
24−19
L1
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
5−5
8.4
hits / game
8.2
1.29
home runs / game
1.14
3.0
walks drawn / game
3.2
8.0
batter strikeouts / game
7.7
8.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.5
0.45
errors / game
0.47

Rating Trend

ATL · STL · 108 days
Atlanta BravesSt. Louis Cardinals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · STL 5−5
Jul 10at STLSTL 2 − 1
Jul 2at ATLSTL 11 − 5
Jul 1at ATLATL 5 − 1
Jun 30at ATLSTL 5 − 3
Jul 13, 2025at STLSTL 5 − 4
Jul 12, 2025at STLATL 7 − 6
Jul 11, 2025at STLATL 6 − 5
Apr 23, 2025at ATLATL 4 − 1
Apr 22, 2025at ATLSTL 10 − 4
Apr 21, 2025at ATLATL 7 − 6

ATL · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Jul 10at STL1 − 2L
Jul 9at PIT10 − 5W
Jul 8at PIT3 − 0W
Jul 7at PIT4 − 12L
Jul 6vs NYM6 − 7L
Jul 5vs NYM9 − 10L
Jul 4vs NYM14 − 3W
Jul 3vs NYM5 − 3W
Jul 2vs STL5 − 11L
Jul 1vs STL5 − 1W

STL · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Jul 10vs ATL2 − 1W
Jul 9vs MIL4 − 8L
Jul 8vs MIL5 − 1W
Jul 7vs MIL2 − 10L
Jul 7vs MIL3 − 4L
Jul 6vs MIL3 − 4L
Jul 5at CHC4 − 6L
Jul 4at CHC3 − 0W
Jul 3at CHC17 − 1W
Jul 2at ATL11 − 5W