bayesRatings

Braves at Cardinals

MLB · Friday, Jul 10 · 7:15 PM CT · Busch Stadium · Final ATL 1 – STL 2
← MLB / Jul 10

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ATL000010000130
STL00000101250
Team box
ATL·STL
3
hits
5
0
home runs
1
1
walks
3
7
strikeouts
11
131
pitches thrown
133
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jimmy CrooksSTL1-1111
Austin RileyATL1-2001
Ivan HerreraSTL2-4000
Jordan WalkerSTL1-4001
Mike YastrzemskiATL1-3100
Jim JarvisATL1-2000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Chris SaleATL3.02015
Danny Young (L)ATL1.01101
Kyle LeahySTL3.01002
JoJo Romero (W)STL1.00001
Riley O'Brien (S)STL1.00002

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
STL +3
ATL +3
123456789
largest lead: STL 1 · ATL 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATL 51%, STL 49% · Updated Jul 10

Expected margin
ATL by 0.7
Expected score
ATL 4.8 – 4.1 STL
Expected total
8.9
BravesThe matchupCardinals
−105Our fair odds+105
4.8Expected runs4.1
+0.11Power rating+0.01
4.9Runs / game4.6
3.9Allowed / game4.5
8.5Hits / game8.2
1.30Home runs / game1.14
3.0Walks drawn / game3.2
54−38Season record48−44
5−5Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATL chance · STL chance
Our model fair51.2%48.8%
Kalshi62.7%41.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATLAtlanta Braves−10551%−16862.7%———
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+10549%+14041.7%———
SpreadATL by 0.7
ATLAtlanta Braves−0.7our margin————
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.9
Over8.9our total————
Under8.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Atlanta Braves by 0.7 expected
Atlanta Braves by 14 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 13 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 12 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 11 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 10 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 9 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 8 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 7 runs: 3%Atlanta Braves by 6 runs: 4%Atlanta Braves by 5 runs: 5%Atlanta Braves by 4 runs: 6%Atlanta Braves by 3 runs: 8%Atlanta Braves by 2 runs: 10%Atlanta Braves by 1 run: 11%St. Louis Cardinals by 1 run: 17%St. Louis Cardinals by 2 runs: 9%St. Louis Cardinals by 3 runs: 6%St. Louis Cardinals by 4 runs: 5%St. Louis Cardinals by 5 runs: 3%St. Louis Cardinals by 6 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 7 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 8 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 9 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 10 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 11 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 12 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 13 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 14 runs: <1%
← ATL wins bySTL wins by →
Atlanta Braves wins by 2 or more42%
Atlanta Braves wins by 3 or more32%
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.9 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.569%
Total over 8.549%
Total over 10.532%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ATLChris Sale SP · last 3 starts: 16.2 IP, 2.16 ERA, 20 Kstarted
STLKyle Leahy SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 0.55 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATL·STL
Jul 9 at PIT
last game
Jul 9 vs MIL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
8
4th straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 92+ games
ATL·STL
+0.11
rating (0 = average)
+0.01
4.9
runs / game
4.6
3.9
runs allowed / game
4.5
54−38
season record
48−44
27−18
home record
24−25
27−20
away record
24−19
W2
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
4−6
8.5
hits / game
8.2
1.30
home runs / game
1.14
3.0
walks drawn / game
3.2
8.1
batter strikeouts / game
7.7
8.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.5
0.46
errors / game
0.48

Rating Trend

ATL · STL · 107 days
Atlanta BravesSt. Louis Cardinals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · STL 5−5
Jul 2at ATLSTL 11 − 5
Jul 1at ATLATL 5 − 1
Jun 30at ATLSTL 5 − 3
Jul 13, 2025at STLSTL 5 − 4
Jul 12, 2025at STLATL 7 − 6
Jul 11, 2025at STLATL 6 − 5
Apr 23, 2025at ATLATL 4 − 1
Apr 22, 2025at ATLSTL 10 − 4
Apr 21, 2025at ATLATL 7 − 6
Jul 21, 2024at ATLSTL 6 − 2

ATL · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Jul 9at PIT10 − 5W
Jul 8at PIT3 − 0W
Jul 7at PIT4 − 12L
Jul 6vs NYM6 − 7L
Jul 5vs NYM9 − 10L
Jul 4vs NYM14 − 3W
Jul 3vs NYM5 − 3W
Jul 2vs STL5 − 11L
Jul 1vs STL5 − 1W
Jun 30vs STL3 − 5L

STL · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Jul 9vs MIL4 − 8L
Jul 8vs MIL5 − 1W
Jul 7vs MIL2 − 10L
Jul 7vs MIL3 − 4L
Jul 6vs MIL3 − 4L
Jul 5at CHC4 − 6L
Jul 4at CHC3 − 0W
Jul 3at CHC17 − 1W
Jul 2at ATL11 − 5W
Jul 1at ATL1 − 5L