bayesRatings

Braves at Cardinals

MLB · Sunday, Jul 12 · 1:15 PM CT · Busch Stadium · Final ATL 4 – STL 3
← MLB / Jul 12

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ATL010101001470
STL100002000342
Team box
ATL·STL
7
hits
4
0
home runs
0
6
walks
5
6
strikeouts
9
147
pitches thrown
176
0
errors
2
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Brewer HicklenATL2-4001
Jose FerminSTL1-4002
Drake BaldwinATL1-3001
Alec BurlesonSTL1-3001
Matt OlsonATL1-5000
Ozzie AlbiesATL1-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Danny YoungATL0.21121
Tyler Kinley (W)ATL0.10001
Raisel Iglesias (S)ATL1.00001
Dustin MaySTL4.02244
JoJo Romero (L)STL1.01010

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
STL +3
ATL +3
123456789
largest lead: STL 1 · ATL 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATL 50%, STL 50% · Updated Jul 12

Expected margin
ATL by 0.5
Expected score
ATL 4.7 – 4.2 STL
Expected total
8.8
BravesThe matchupCardinals
−102Our fair odds+102
4.7Expected runs4.2
+0.10Power rating+0.02
4.9Runs / game4.5
3.9Allowed / game4.5
8.4Hits / game8.1
1.29Home runs / game1.14
3.0Walks drawn / game3.2
54−40Season record50−44
4−6Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATL chance · STL chance
Our model fair50.5%49.5%
Kalshi46.7%57.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 1:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATLAtlanta Braves−10250%+11446.7%———
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+10250%−13757.7%———
SpreadATL by 0.5
ATLAtlanta Braves−0.5our margin————
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.8
Over8.8our total————
Under8.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Atlanta Braves by 0.5 expected
Atlanta Braves by 13 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 12 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 11 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 10 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 9 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 8 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 7 runs: 3%Atlanta Braves by 6 runs: 4%Atlanta Braves by 5 runs: 5%Atlanta Braves by 4 runs: 6%Atlanta Braves by 3 runs: 8%Atlanta Braves by 2 runs: 10%Atlanta Braves by 1 run: 11%St. Louis Cardinals by 1 run: 17%St. Louis Cardinals by 2 runs: 9%St. Louis Cardinals by 3 runs: 6%St. Louis Cardinals by 4 runs: 5%St. Louis Cardinals by 5 runs: 4%St. Louis Cardinals by 6 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 7 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 8 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 9 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 10 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 11 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 12 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 13 runs: <1%
← ATL wins bySTL wins by →
Atlanta Braves wins by 2 or more41%
Atlanta Braves wins by 3 or more30%
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.8 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.568%
Total over 8.548%
Total over 10.531%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ATLDanny Young RP · no recent starts on recordstarted
STLDustin May SP · last 3 starts: 7.1 IP, 13.50 ERA, 10 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATL·STL
Jul 11 at STL
last game
Jul 11 vs ATL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
8
6th straight road game
home / road
8th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 94+ games
ATL·STL
+0.10
rating (0 = average)
+0.02
4.9
runs / game
4.5
3.9
runs allowed / game
4.5
54−40
season record
50−44
27−18
home record
26−25
27−22
away record
24−19
L2
streak
W2
4−6
last 10
5−5
8.4
hits / game
8.1
1.29
home runs / game
1.14
3.0
walks drawn / game
3.2
8.1
batter strikeouts / game
7.7
8.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.5
0.45
errors / game
0.47

Rating Trend

ATL · STL · 109 days
Atlanta BravesSt. Louis Cardinals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · STL 6−4
Jul 11at STLSTL 4 − 1
Jul 10at STLSTL 2 − 1
Jul 2at ATLSTL 11 − 5
Jul 1at ATLATL 5 − 1
Jun 30at ATLSTL 5 − 3
Jul 13, 2025at STLSTL 5 − 4
Jul 12, 2025at STLATL 7 − 6
Jul 11, 2025at STLATL 6 − 5
Apr 23, 2025at ATLATL 4 − 1
Apr 22, 2025at ATLSTL 10 − 4

ATL · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Jul 11at STL1 − 4L
Jul 10at STL1 − 2L
Jul 9at PIT10 − 5W
Jul 8at PIT3 − 0W
Jul 7at PIT4 − 12L
Jul 6vs NYM6 − 7L
Jul 5vs NYM9 − 10L
Jul 4vs NYM14 − 3W
Jul 3vs NYM5 − 3W
Jul 2vs STL5 − 11L

STL · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Jul 11vs ATL4 − 1W
Jul 10vs ATL2 − 1W
Jul 9vs MIL4 − 8L
Jul 8vs MIL5 − 1W
Jul 7vs MIL2 − 10L
Jul 7vs MIL3 − 4L
Jul 6vs MIL3 − 4L
Jul 5at CHC4 − 6L
Jul 4at CHC3 − 0W
Jul 3at CHC17 − 1W