bayesRatings

Rangers at Braves

MLB · Saturday, Jul 18 · 3:10 PM CT · Truist Park · Final TEX 7 – ATL 6
← MLB / Jul 18

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TEX1020040007120
ATL041000100692
Team box
TEX·ATL
12
hits
9
2
home runs
2
4
walks
1
9
strikeouts
9
131
pitches thrown
166
0
errors
2
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Evan CarterTEX2-4112
Brandon NimmoTEX2-5003
Eli WhiteATL1-4112
Michael Harris IIATL2-5211
Joc PedersonTEX2-4311
Mauricio DubonATL2-4101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
MacKenzie Gore (W)TEX5.26517
Jacob Latz (S)TEX1.10001
Owen MurphyATL2.25222
Tyler Kinley (L)ATL0.12310

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATL +3
TEX +3
123456789
largest lead: ATL 3 · TEX 2lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TEX 45%, ATL 55% · Updated Jul 18

Expected margin
ATL by 0.8
Expected score
ATL 4.7 – 3.9 TEX
Expected total
8.5
RangersThe matchupBraves
+122Our fair odds−122
3.9Expected runs4.7
−0.02Power rating+0.13
4.1Runs / game4.9
4.4Allowed / game3.8
8.1Hits / game8.5
1.12Home runs / game1.29
3.3Walks drawn / game3.0
49−48Season record56−40
5−5Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TEX chance · ATL chance
Our model fair45.1%54.9%
Kalshi50.7%53.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TEXTexas Rangers+12245%−10350.7%———
ATLAtlanta Braves−12255%−11653.7%———
SpreadATL by 0.8
TEXTexas Rangers+0.8our margin————
ATLAtlanta Braves−0.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.5
Over8.5our total————
Under8.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Atlanta Braves by 0.8 expected
Texas Rangers by 14 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 13 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 12 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 11 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 10 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 9 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 8 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 7 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 6 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 5 runs: 3%Texas Rangers by 4 runs: 4%Texas Rangers by 3 runs: 6%Texas Rangers by 2 runs: 9%Texas Rangers by 1 run: 16%Atlanta Braves by 1 run: 12%Atlanta Braves by 2 runs: 11%Atlanta Braves by 3 runs: 8%Atlanta Braves by 4 runs: 6%Atlanta Braves by 5 runs: 5%Atlanta Braves by 6 runs: 4%Atlanta Braves by 7 runs: 3%Atlanta Braves by 8 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 9 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 10 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 11 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 12 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 13 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 14 runs: <1%
← TEX wins byATL wins by →
Atlanta Braves wins by 2 or more43%
Atlanta Braves wins by 3 or more32%
Texas Rangers wins by 2 or more28%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.5 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.529%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TEXMacKenzie Gore SP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 8.36 ERA, 18 Kstarted
ATLOwen Murphy SP · no recent starts on recordstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TEX·ATL
Jul 17 at ATL
last game
Jul 17 vs TEX
0 days
days of rest
0 days
3
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 96+ games
TEX·ATL
−0.02
rating (0 = average)
+0.13
4.1
runs / game
4.9
4.4
runs allowed / game
3.8
49−48
season record
56−40
24−22
home record
28−18
25−26
away record
28−22
L1
streak
W2
5−5
last 10
5−5
8.1
hits / game
8.5
1.12
home runs / game
1.29
3.3
walks drawn / game
3.0
8.4
batter strikeouts / game
8.0
8.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.4
0.45
errors / game
0.44

Rating Trend

TEX · ATL · 112 days
Texas RangersAtlanta Braves
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATL 5−5
Jul 17at ATLATL 15 − 1
Jul 27, 2025at TEXTEX 8 − 1
Jul 26, 2025at TEXTEX 6 − 5
Jul 25, 2025at TEXTEX 8 − 3
Apr 21, 2024at ATLTEX 6 − 4
Apr 20, 2024at ATLATL 5 − 2
Apr 19, 2024at ATLATL 8 − 3
May 17, 2023at TEXATL 6 − 5
May 16, 2023at TEXTEX 7 − 4
May 15, 2023at TEXATL 12 − 0

TEX · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Jul 17at ATL1 − 15L
Jul 12vs HOU6 − 5W
Jul 11vs HOU3 − 9L
Jul 10vs HOU7 − 3W
Jul 9vs LAA7 − 6W
Jul 8vs LAA1 − 13L
Jul 7vs LAA8 − 3W
Jul 5vs DET3 − 6L
Jul 4vs DET0 − 3L
Jul 2vs DET10 − 4W

ATL · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Jul 17vs TEX15 − 1W
Jul 12at STL4 − 3W
Jul 11at STL1 − 4L
Jul 10at STL1 − 2L
Jul 9at PIT10 − 5W
Jul 8at PIT3 − 0W
Jul 7at PIT4 − 12L
Jul 6vs NYM6 − 7L
Jul 5vs NYM9 − 10L
Jul 4vs NYM14 − 3W