bayesRatings

Padres at Marlins

MLB · Friday, Jul 24 · 6:10 PM CT · loanDepot park · Final SD 4 – MIA 2
← MLB / Jul 24

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SD000110020451
MIA010010000292
Team box
SD·MIA
5
hits
9
1
home runs
2
7
walks
1
8
strikeouts
11
142
pitches thrown
159
1
errors
2
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Heriberto HernandezMIA2-4111
Luis RengifoSD1-1112
Joe MackMIA1-4111
Manny MachadoSD2-5101
Xavier EdwardsMIA2-4000
Ty FranceSD2-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
German MarquezSD2.13104
Adrian Morejon (W)SD1.10012
Mason Miller (S)SD1.00001
Ryan GustoMIA3.12114
Tyler Zuber (L)MIA0.22202

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIA +3
SD +3
123456789
largest lead: MIA 1 · SD 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SD 49%, MIA 51% · Updated Jul 24

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
MIA 4.4 – 4.3 SD
Expected total
8.7
PadresThe matchupMarlins
+103Our fair odds−103
4.3Expected runs4.4
+0.01Power rating−0.01
4.1Runs / game4.4
4.4Allowed / game4.3
7.6Hits / game8.4
1.12Home runs / game1.01
3.4Walks drawn / game3.4
50−53Season record52−51
4−6Last 101−9

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SD chance · MIA chance
Our model fair49.2%50.8%
Kalshi48.7%56.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SDSan Diego Padres+10349%+10548.7%———
MIAMiami Marlins−10351%−13156.7%———
Spreadabout even
SDSan Diego Padres+0.1our margin————
MIAMiami Marlins−0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.7
Over8.7our total————
Under8.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
San Diego Padres by 13 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 12 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 11 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 10 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 9 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 8 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 7 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 6 runs: 3%San Diego Padres by 5 runs: 4%San Diego Padres by 4 runs: 5%San Diego Padres by 3 runs: 7%San Diego Padres by 2 runs: 10%San Diego Padres by 1 run: 14%Miami Marlins by 1 run: 14%Miami Marlins by 2 runs: 10%Miami Marlins by 3 runs: 7%Miami Marlins by 4 runs: 6%Miami Marlins by 5 runs: 4%Miami Marlins by 6 runs: 3%Miami Marlins by 7 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 8 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 9 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 10 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 11 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 12 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 13 runs: <1%
← SD wins byMIA wins by →
Miami Marlins wins by 2 or more37%
Miami Marlins wins by 3 or more27%
San Diego Padres wins by 2 or more35%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.7 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.567%
Total over 8.547%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SDGerman Marquez SP · last 3 starts: 12.0 IP, 3.75 ERA, 10 Kstarted
MIARyan Gusto SP · last 3 starts: 12.1 IP, 4.38 ERA, 11 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SD·MIA
Jul 23 at ATL
last game
Jul 22 at HOU
0 days
days of rest
1 day
7
games in last 7 days
6
8th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 103+ games
SD·MIA
+0.01
rating (0 = average)
−0.01
4.1
runs / game
4.4
4.4
runs allowed / game
4.3
50−53
season record
52−51
27−24
home record
31−20
23−29
away record
21−31
L2
streak
L9
4−6
last 10
1−9
7.6
hits / game
8.4
1.12
home runs / game
1.01
3.4
walks drawn / game
3.4
8.3
batter strikeouts / game
8.2
8.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.4
0.39
errors / game
0.64

Rating Trend

SD · MIA · 118 days
San Diego PadresMiami Marlins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIA 5−5
Jul 23, 2025at MIAMIA 3 − 2
Jul 22, 2025at MIAMIA 4 − 3
Jul 21, 2025at MIASD 2 − 1
May 28, 2025at SDMIA 10 − 8
May 27, 2025at SDSD 8 − 6
May 26, 2025at SDSD 4 − 3
Aug 11, 2024at MIAMIA 7 − 6
Aug 10, 2024at MIASD 9 − 8
Aug 9, 2024at MIASD 6 − 2
May 29, 2024at SDMIA 9 − 1

SD · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Jul 23at ATL5 − 6L
Jul 22at ATL6 − 7L
Jul 21at ATL8 − 3W
Jul 20at ATL2 − 3L
Jul 19at KC19 − 2W
Jul 18at KC1 − 6L
Jul 17at KC6 − 7L
Jul 12vs TOR5 − 4W
Jul 11vs TOR8 − 7W
Jul 10vs TOR3 − 5L

MIA · Last 10

1−9 · streak L9
Jul 22at HOU2 − 5L
Jul 21at HOU3 − 5L
Jul 20at HOU5 − 8L
Jul 19at MIL1 − 3L
Jul 18at MIL6 − 8L
Jul 17at MIL1 − 2L
Jul 12vs CLE2 − 5L
Jul 11vs CLE1 − 4L
Jul 10vs CLE2 − 3L
Jul 9vs SEA8 − 4W